Thursday, 14 March 2019

So what happens now?

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has  emphatically lost the support of the  Commons and her Brexit plan  .
She can't gather the support of soft Remainers  or the European Reform Group or the likes of William Rees Mogg , who are keen to leave the EU mo matter what, and arguably have a financial interest in doing so,as Prem Sikka off Left Foot Foward pointed out : The Brexiteers are getting rich off Brexit
Her EU Withdrawal Agreement was defeated by an overwhelming majority for the second time, by 149 votes on Tuesday.
MPs voted by 391 to 242 against the deal.
Last night In Commons, MPs surprised the government and voted by 312 to 308 to reject a no-deal Brexit under any circumstances.
The vote is not binding - under current law the UK could still leave without a deal on 29 March.

This would be a no-deal Brexit. even he Prime Minister has warned that a no-deal scenario would be "bleak", with a "significant economic shock" and the loss of security co-operation with Europe. It also raises the prospect of the break-up of the UK as support for Scottish independence and a united Ireland could increase.
So sh is once again proposing  to put her deal before parliament  and it is clear that she has been delaying votes in the commons in the hope that MPs have no option 
There will be a vote today ( 14 March) on delaying Brexit and extending Article 50, which would delay the UK's departure beyond the current March 29 deadline.
However  the Prime Minister would need to request an extension from the EU. But to secure an extension to Article 50, Mrs May would need the support of the 27 other EU states. They are likely to agree to an extension as long as there was a prospect of a deal being reached, or of a referendum or general election which could change the political landscape at Westminster.
Though it seems Nigel Farage  is lobbying EU governments (possibly Italy or Hungary who have Far-Right governments ) to *veto* any British govt request to extend A50 so as to force a No Deal Brexit on March 29. That's Farage lobbying foreign governments to oppose Britain's parliament think about it .
If MPs vote for an extension, then we would surely need a change of Prime Minister, who can unite at least some of the Commons.
Whether that means Mrs May resigning or calling a General Election . which the Tories are likely to win.
But who can sat if they do that all the new Tory MPs will be all  hard line leavers?
The other option seems to be another referendum, which again could see a General Election.
Mrs May seems doomed though because she has failed the leavers and has not found any support from Soft Reaminers.
A new Prime Minister may if he or she is prepared to reach out to Remainers and abandon both the ERG and DUP , get a a new deal through.
Quite frankly although I support a People's Vote, I am not sure  whether  this will happen . Indeed my crystal ball seems to be broken.

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