Pro- Independence Parties likely to win in Euskadi

With a week to go for Elections for the Basque Parliament a on 21 October 2012, (a year earlier than required)

The Polls have been remarkably steady but the big winners  lok likely to be s EHB left-wing, Basque nationalist and coalition .

The Coalition which has existed under numerous names over the years Largely consists of : Eusko Alkartasuna, ( Who are members of the European Free Alliance along side Plaid) Aralar, Alternatiba, Sortu, and independents of ezker abertzalea (groups and independent individuals from the Basque leftist-nationalist milieu, most of whom had been members of Herri Batasuna)

The Big losers lok like the Spanish Federal Parties  PSE (Socialist) amd PP ( Consevitive)

The PSE had been making steady gains in previous elections and was seemingly establishing themselves as the second largest party in the Autonomous  Basque region and some commentators were claiming that we were seeing a end to moves to an Independent Basque Nation as the EAJ accommodated themselves in the Spanish Antonymous system.

However it seems far more likely many supporters who no longer see EAJ has pushing for full independence abstained as some of the Parties they would have voted for were banned for alleged links to ETA

But this time there it seems likely that there can be no argument that the Basque country wil make a big step in voting for pro independence parties Next Sunday and with polls in Catalonia also  seeing an increase in support for independence parties  . It may be Alex Salmond may be in a race to be the next leader of a newly independent nation.

How far are we in Wales prepared to be behind.

Recent Polls

38 seats needed for a majority

Date(s) conducted	Polling institute	EAJ	PSE–EE	PP	EHB	IU	UPyD	Others / undecided	Margin
11 October	Aztiker	35.2 28	14.6 12	10.4 8	28.3 24	3.3 2	2.2 1	6.0 0	6.9
10 October	Aztiker	34.4 28	15.3 12	10.8 9	28.2 24	3.2 1	2.1 1	6.0 0	6.2
8–10 October	Sigma Dos	33.3 24–26	20.2 16–18	14.7 12	24.5 20	2.8 1	2.1 0	2.4 0	8.8
9 October	Aztiker	34.6 27	15.3 13	11.2 10	27.9 23	3.1 1	2.0 1	5.9 0	6.7
8 October	Aztiker	32.7 27	15.6 13	11.5 9	27.2 23	3.8 2	2.6 1	6.6 0	5.5
6 October	Aztiker	32.2 26	16.8 13	11.8 10	27.4 24	3.0 1	2.1 1	6.7 0	4.8
5 October	Aztiker	33.4 26	14.9 13	12.4 11	27.2 23	3.4 2	2.0 0	6.7 0	6.2
4 October	Aztiker	35.8 26	15.8 14	13.8 11	27.4 22	3.6 1	1.7 1	1.9 0	8.4
25 September–4 October	NC Report	– 24–25	– 14	– 10–12	– 21–23	– 3	– 1	– 0	–
2–3 October	Gizaker	33.9 24–25	19.8 16–17	14.2 11–13	27.1 21–22	1.9 0	1.3 0	1.8 0	6.8
22 September–2 October	Aztiker	35.1 26	16.3 14	14.1 11	26.8 22	3.8 2	1.7 0	2.2 0	8.3
30 September	NC Report	– 23–25	– 14–15	– 11–13	– 22–24	– 0–1	– 0	– 0	–
10–25 September	CIS	36.2 27	17.2 14	10.7 9–10	25.1 21–22	4.2 3	2.0 0	4.6 0	11.1
23 September	NC Report	– 23–25	– 14–15	– 11–13	– 21–24	– 1–2	– 0	– 0	–
16 September	NC Report	– 23–26	– 14–16	– 11–13	– 21–22	– 1	– 1	– 0	–
21–25 August	NC Report	31.2 22–25	19.0 14–16	14.1 11–13	26.5 21–22	3.5 1	3.1 1	2.6 0	4.7
22–24 August	Sigma Dos	33.7 24–25	21.4 17	12.8 12	27.3 21–22	2.3 0	1.1 0	1.4 0	6.4
24 June	Ikerfel	34.6 24–26	18.8 14–17	12.1 11–12	25.8 19–21	4.7 2	1.2 0	2.8 0	8.8
21–23 June	NC Report	30.6 22–24	19.5 15–16	16.7 14	25.1 21–22	3.8 1–2	2.3 0	2.0 0	5.5
8–24 May	Euskobarómetro	32.1 23–24	20.0 17	14.0 12–13	24.7 22	3.0 0	1.8 0	4.4 0	7.4
7–12 May	NC Report	29.8 22–23	19.1 15	16.5 14	27.2[1] 22–23	3.5 1–2	– 0	– 0	2.6
23 April	Gara	29.0 22	15.0 12	16.0 15	28.0[1] 24	5.0 2	– 0	– 0	1.0
2012
25 November–19 December	Euskobarómetro	30.7 22–23	18.3 16	15.4 14	24.7[1] 19–22	3.1 0–3	1.8 0	6.0 0	6.0 over EHB
27–29 January	Gizaker	36.7 29–30	24.4 20–21	12.4 11–12	18.2[2] 12–14	– 0	1.5 1	– 0	12.3
2011
2010
1 March 2009	Election Results	38.6 30	30.7 25	14.1 13	9.7[3] 5	3.5 1	2.1 1	1.3 0	7.9 over PSE