Tuesday, 19 November 2019

Plaid's Flur Elin may be worth a punt on Pontypridd on DEC 12th.

When the Liberal Democrats agreed on a pact in some seats  with Plaid Cymru that included Pontypridd , I was somewhat surprised b but it is possible due to my own turf appearing to have voted Remain, despite ot being counted in the Leave Rhondda Cynon Taf area.

According to Wales online Pontypridd actually voted Remain after all

Pontypridd: Remain5e



Brexit is the big topic in the upcoming General Election.
When the EU referendum happened in 2016, the votes were counted in what's called "counting areas" - which in most cases were council areas.

However, the General Election is counted in consitutencies.
You can see guides to every constituency in Wales, and check your constituency.Since the referendum, there have been different attempts to work out how constituencies voted in 2016.
The House of Commons Library, an independent research unit, has looked at estimates produced by Dr Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia, some collected by the BBC and and other known results for Parliamentary constituencies.
You can read the whole methodology as to how the figures were reached.
These figures may be different to the figures you saw at the time of the EU referendum.
At the last election Owen Smith increased his majority
General election 2017: Pontypridd[9]
LabourOwen Smith22,10355.4+14.3
ConservativeJuliette Ash10,65526.7+9.4
Plaid CymruFflur Elin4,10210.3-1.2
Liberal DemocratsMike Powell1,9634.9-8.0
UKIPRobin Hunter-Clarke1,0712.7-10.7
Registered electors60,564
Labour holdSwing+2.5

A far different story  from when he first stood

General election 2010: Pontypridd[11][12]
LabourOwen Smith14,22038.8−15.4
Liberal DemocratsMike Powell11,43531.2+11.2
ConservativeLee Gonzalez5,93216.2+4.6
Plaid CymruIoan Bellin2,6737.3−3.7
UKIPDavid Bevan1,2293.4+0.8
Socialist LabourSimon Parsons4561.2N/A
ChristianDonald Watson3651.0N/A
GreenJohn Matthews3611.0N/A
Registered electors58,205
Labour holdSwing−13.3

Elections in the 2000s

There are how two difrences  Own Smith is not standing and Labour have selected  Alex Davies-Jones a Tonyrefail County Councilor . Mike Powell the former Liberal Democrat despite losing his deposit has objected to being left out of the Lib-Dem Plaid Remain Pact  an will stand as an Independent.

But it is Plaid Fflur Elin who is sen as a rising star in the party who will also be standing under the  Unite to Remain banner .

It all makes what should be a foregone conclusion (Labour Hold) a bit more intresting.

How much will Remain voters warm to a candidate fighting on this issue ?

How much difference will Mike Powell a R.C.T councillor who is a populist and already seemingly fighting om "Local Issues" ie  attacking the Labour  run Council rather than Westminster make .

The Tory has only to turn up to the count , but he is a local Community Councilor  in my ward of Beddau and like Powell is a populist  who highlights local issues and claims credit for any changes.

Pontypridd have been Labour a 1922 By-Election  and will probably stay so , but there has always been a strong "Anti-Labour" , which is not necessarily  all on the right.

If I was to put a bet on this you may get good odds on Plaid and Fflur may be worth a few quid

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