Friday, 8 November 2019

Remain Alliance Inspired, Cynical or potentially disastrous ?

The Plaid,Lib Dem, Green electoral pact i, Wales is either Inspired, Cynical or potentially disastrous for at least one of the Parties.

The plan for the December election is reported to involve 11 seats.Plaid Cymru will stand alone alone in
  • Arfon
  • Caerphilly
  • Dwyfor Meirionydd
  • Carmarthen East
  • Llanelli
  • Ynys Môn
  • Pontypridd
  •  Caerphilly
We can wonder how many Lib Dem or potential voters wil be enough to secure Arfon which is threatened by Labour or win Ynys Môn in the past it could have made a difference and a Lib Dem revival could take votes of Plaid.

On the other hand one wonders if Plaid hasnt already squeezed the potential Lib Dem Vote  already and whether some Lib Dems will now move to a Unionist Party /

Llanelli, Caerphilly and Pontypridd look like wishful thinking and But it has not all gone down well with all members of their parties and two prominent members of the Welsh Liberal Democrats announcing their resignation from the party because of the 'alliance pact'.
Lib Dem parliamentary candidates for Pontypridd Mike Powell said he was resigning from the party in protest and would instead run as an independent.
Powell came close in 2010 running a populist campaign , jumping on any passing Bandwagon and making claims to have had much more influence  than he really had.
General election 2010: Pontypridd[15][16]
LabourOwen Smith14,22038.8−15.4
Liberal DemocratMike Powell11,43531.2+11.2
ConservativeLee Gonzalez5,93216.2+4.6
Plaid CymruIoan Bellin2,6737.3−3.7
UKIPDavid Bevan1,2293.4+0.8
Socialist LabourSimon Parsons4561.2N/A
ChristianDonald Watson3651.0N/A
GreenJohn Matthews3611.0N/A
Registered electors58,205
Labour holdSwing−13.3
At the last election however he lost his deposit 
General election 2017: Pontypridd[13]
LabourOwen Smith22,10355.4+14.3
ConservativeJuliette Ash10,65526.7+9.4
Plaid CymruFflur Elin4,10210.3-1.2
Liberal DemocratMike Powell1,9634.9-8.0
UKIPRobin Hunter-Clarke1,0712.7-10.7
Registered electors60,564
Labour holdSwing+2.5
Maybe Mr Powell is not popular with the upper echelons  pf the Lib Dems in Wales as they seem to have abandoned  the seat well before their fall from grace and did not see it as a target seat again

Lib Dems

  • Brecon and Radnorshire
  • Montgomeryshire
  • Cardiff Central
This looks  like the obvious seats for the Lib Dems to target , though whether they can win them is a mute point , Certainly the Plaid vote switching is not going to make much of a difference  and although Cardiff Central used to be their stronghold in the Capitol jo Stevens a Remain supporter has built up a healthy lead.taking much of the LIb Dem support 
General election 2017: Cardiff Central[11][12][13]
LabourJo Stevens[14]25,19362.4+22.4
ConservativeGregory Stafford7,99719.8+5.1
Liberal DemocratEluned Parrott[15]5,41513.4-13.7
Plaid CymruMark Hooper9992.5-2.5
GreenBenjamin Smith4201.0-5.3
UKIPMohammed Sarul-Islam3430.8-5.6
Rejected ballots80
Registered electors59,288
Labour holdSwing+8.6
If there was a true move for a Remain attack on Labour Leavers then why not  Stephen Kinnock in Aberavon where  it might have at least dented Pillocks huge majority?


  • Vale of Glamorgan
To be honest this looks like  giving the Greens a free run looks like a token to give the impression of a three party welsh pact
General election 2017: Vale of Glamorgan[7]
ConservativeAlun Cairns25,50147.5+1.5
LabourCamilla Beaven23,31143.4+10.8
Plaid CymruIan Johnson2,2954.3−1.3
Liberal DemocratJennifer Geroni1,0201.9−0.7
UKIPMelanie Hunter-Clarke8681.8-8.1
GreenStephen Davis-Barker4190.8−1.3
Women’s EqualitySharon Lovell1770.3N/A
PirateDavid Elston1270.2N/A
Registered electors73,959
and it may be that its intention is to defeat Alun Cairns .

There will be many like Mike Powell in all parties not happy with this and frankly unless it suddenly captures the public imagination , could make little or no difference.

Much may depend on whether Plaid's Adam Price is not frozen out of the UK leaders debate . 

If he can reach the public he may well push this further than I expect, if not his short leadership may be called into question


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