Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Tomorrow's Election

After due consideration (as they say) I will not  be spoiling my ballot in tomorrows poll for Police and Crime Commissioner by shall be writing in the name of James Gordon  from the Batman TV series but following the advice of  Welsh not British  and writing Devolve policing on my ballot paper.

It will make a much more positive statement.

As far as the elections go it will probably be a clean sweep for Labour in Wales though  Independents Mike Baker in the South Wales area and Winston Roddick in North Wales may just pull of a surprise.

In the Other Elections  Cardiff South  and Penarth should be safe for Labour and my prediction is

Labour – 51%
Conservative 22%
Plaid 13%
Lib Dem – 6%
UKIP – 6%
Others -4%

In the Two By-elections the prediction   (or guess) is a bit harder.

On Conwy county borough council:

 Deganwy division after the resignation of a Independent councillor  Jason Weyman. should be a Conservative gain since they already have the other two seats but with 7 candidates the winner may have under 30% of the vote.

On Merthyr Council:

In Cyfarthfa after the resignation of Merthyr Independents councillor Les Elliott.Where Labour hold one seat, Independents one and there's one vacant  it will probably be between 

Margaret Davies Lab and Malcolm Jenkins Ind  who were close  just lost out last time should be the main contenders.

But in all cases local conditions will apply so we may see some shocks.

But  quite frankly it shows the nature of the Police and Crime Commissioner   elections that here in from Beddau the result in Deganwy and Cyfarfthfa is of more interest.


Welsh not British said...

Continued from the previous post...

It wont be the largest number of spoilt votes but surely as a percentage of turnout it could be quite interesting to see how much it is and whether the media pick up on it.

Bill Chapman said...

The Deganwy by-election results were as follows:

M. Bullock (Ind) 49
Bill Chapman (Lab) 142
Goronwy Edwards (Ind) 74
J.Fallon (Con) 437
J. Humberstone (UKIP) 57
Terry James (LibDem) 53
T. Lewis (PC) 327

This is a traditional Conservative seat. Plaid Cymru has done particularly well, and the LibDem vote collapsed. Former councillor Goronwy Edwards failed to return to the county council.