Saturday, 7 May 2016

So what happens now?

OK all the results are in and I am grateful that Stuart Evans of WelshnotBritish  who has done a better job of providing s with a breakdown of the result in a day than all the resources of the London Media.

He may not agree with may analysis but its an excellent job.




So what can we make of of it  and what happens 

Labour

For a proportional electoral system it is rather odd that Labour's Constituency vote went down from 42.3% to 34.7% and lose only one seat Overall and the SNP to go from 44.0% to 46.5% in the constituency and lose six seats overall .



The loss of the Rhondda will be as shock to the system and I suspect Alun Davies will be asked by some how he nearly came to losing Blaneau Gwent to Plaid.

The absence of two of their more bullish AMs Leighton Andrews and Edwina Hart (retired) may see  a rethink on forced council mergers and the M4 relief road where there is already internal opposition.

They can however carry out a minority government with a more divided opposition  due to presence of Ukip then previously.

Plaid

Will be disappointed  not to win Target seats especially Llanelli but any talk of a Leadership challenge vanished when the Rhondda fell to Leanne Wood. The Party has also seen the return of Dai Lloyd and Adam Price to mainstream and Poltics , The election of a rising star in Steffan Leweis and of course there's always Neil MCevoy who may stir a few feathers .

I think Plaid may concentrate on being an effective opposition and raising Leanne profile even further .


Conservatives.

With a loss of three seats the Tories who banked on being seem as the main challengers to Labour failed . Will there be a challenge to Andrew RT Davies ? Maybe not  one can wonder whose there that can reverse their fortunes in the Assembly at least.

Liberal Democrats.

What can you say reduced to one seat and that AM  resigning as leader . So the Lib Dems will be the only party in the Assembly to have a Leader whose not a AM and possibly not a MP.

Speculation  that Kirsty Williams will bide her time as Presiding Officer or as Minister in the Labour Government before fighting the Brecon and Radnorshire seat in the UK General Election,.

They are not dead and buried  but they are on life support.

Ukip 

Seemingly the big winners in seats , though they dud not get anything like the vote they achieved in the UK Genera Election .

With Seven AM, on paper it looks at first the will play a major role in the Assembly but they were already divided before  the Election with  Christine Hamilton  accusing  UKIP Wales' leader of acting like a "third-rate general" after he said he would "probably not" have chosen her husband as an election candidate.
There were  accusations the selection of Neil Hamilton and fellow ex-Tory MP Mark Reckless as UKIP candidates in Wales was imposed by the party centrally.
 Nathan Gill said he would "probably not" have chosen them.
One wonders how long after June's Brexit referendum  they will stay together .
The record of Ukip losing elected members shortly after making a breakthrough is higher than any Party.
It would take only two to defect to the Tories to make the latter the main opposition .
Watch this space






5 comments:

  1. Glyn - does this mean the Lib Dems in Wales have only got one more seat than the Raving Monster Loony Party?

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  2. And six less than that other loony party - UKIP!

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  3. Sadly for Kirsty Williams, the Lib Dems in Wales are still suffering from the 'Clegg' effect.

    Both my student sons voted Lib Dem in 2010. After the election, their feeling of betrayal was palpable, neither of them would ever consider voting for that party again.

    I suspect it will take many, many years for the damage to the Lib Dems electoral fortunes to be repaired.

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  4. According to the rules of the Welsh branch of the Lib Dems it has to be an MEP, MP or AM. They've only got 1 MP and 1 AM and the AM resigned. Mark has now accepted the job, presumably because it's easier than rewriting their rule book!

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  5. Former AM, Leighton Andrews claimed that Plaid had been a "cheap date" when he needed support for his Local Government Bill.

    For Andrews and Labour in the Rhondda, it looks as if the 'cheap date' has had the last laugh!

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