Saturday, 5 January 2019

May's Deal and Trump's Wall are peas in a pod.

In some ways there a similarity between the UK Governments  threat of a No-Deal Brexit   Donald Trumps battle with the House of Representatives over his Boarder Wall.
US President Donald Trump has said he could declare a national emergency to build a US-Mexico border wall without the approval of Congress.
It came after he met senior Democrats, who refused his requests for funding.
The stand-off has seen Mr Trump withhold support for a bill to fully fund the government until he gets money for the border wall.
He said he was prepared for the partial government shutdown - now in its third week - to last years.
Around 800,000 federal workers have been without pay since 22 December.
As a partial US government shutdown hit the two-week mark, Donald Trump told congressional leaders at the White House he was prepared for the standoff to last months or even years.
“Absolutely I said that,” said Trump during a Rose Garden press conference, when asked if Senator Chuck Schumer was correct in his claim that the White House was prepared to continue the shutdown indefinitely.


The president also upped the ante, threatening to declare a national emergency and build a border wall without congressional approval.
“I can do it if I want,” he said. He also suggested what he called “the military version of eminent domain” as a method of obtaining private property for wall construction.
According to the  BBC up to 40 Conservative MPs are likely to vote against the Brexit agreement even if Mrs May secures further concessions on the backstop.
This would mean almost certain defeat for Mrs May, since Labour, the Lib Dems , Plaid, Greens and the SNP have all vowed to vote against the deal and the DUP are also opposed.
Many Tory members of the European Research Group remain opposed to the UK handing over £39bn, as part of the proposed financial settlement, in return for what they say are vague promises over future trading terms and would prefer the UK to leave without a deal.

So both Mrs May seem set on acheiving thier aims even if it is detrementral to many of thier citizens.
Trump has gone as far as saying  he can declare a "national emergency" and build his promised wall along the border without congressional approval. 
Though as Anthony Zurcher, BBC News, Washington  reports
"If that's the case, the question becomes why he doesn't go ahead and do that. Why put federal workers through the pain of forgoing pay and hamstring key government agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security, if he could bypass Democratic objections with the snap of his presidential fingers?
The answer is because the solution isn't that simple. There are provisions of US law that allow the president to direct military construction projects during war or national emergency, but that money would have to come from Defence Department funds allocated by Congress for other purposes. Such a move may prompt Congress, including Republicans, to push back.
Then there's the inevitable legal challenge from Democrats to such an exercise of presidential authority. Any presidential order to build a wall would be met by an equally imposing wall of court filings blocking its construction.
The president's latest suggestions are best viewed as simply another attempt to gain the upper hand in negotiations with Democrats. Mr Trump says it's not a threat - and he's probably right. It's a bluff".

It's not so clear whether Mrs May is bluffing rather that she has  manoeuvred herself into a corner, from which she can't escape.

 Indeed whilst Trump could win his battle in seeing the House Democrats blink first unless his own party in the Senate 9where they are in a majority) turn against him. Mrs May seems to be in a lose lose  situation as I said yesterday the option of revoking Article 50 and extending the March 29th deadline is probably the only card she has left to play, but like the US President, the prospect of being seen to lose to her critics seems less preferable than bringing the whole  house of cards down .

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