Saturday, 20 June 2015

Three retiring Labour AM will leave seats open to challengers.



The news that Gower AM Edwina Hart and Neath AM Gwenda Thomas . have joined Llanelli am Keith Davies  in announcing thay they are to stand down stand down at the 2016 assembly election. may have an important influence on the make up of the next Assembly

Currently economy and transport minister, Mrs Hart's previous posts included local government and health the Gower seat will be top of the Tories lisy after they won the Parliamentary seat in May

Ms Hart increased her Majority last time but can the Tories


Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Gower[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
LabourEdwina Hart12,86648.1+13.9
ConservativeCaroline Jones8,00229.9+0.1
Plaid CymruDarren Price3,24912.1−6.4
Liberal DemocratsPeter May2,6569.9−0.7
Majority4,86418.2
Turnout26,77343.1
Labour holdSwing
But in the previous election Byron Davies who won the Parliamentary seat May ran her close

Welsh Assembly Election 2007: Gower
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
LabourEdwina Hart9,40634.2−9.4
ConservativeByron Davies8,21429.8+10.2
Plaid CymruDarren Price5,10618.5+3.8
Liberal DemocratsNicholas J. Tregoning2,92410.6−1.1
UKIPAlex R. Lewis1,8956.9−3.4
Majority1,1924.3
Turnout27,54544.8+5.6
Labour holdSwing
Mrs Thomas sometimes known has Gwenda Who?has been deputy social services minister, chaired committees and led a safeguarding children review. leaves s a similar seat open to a challenge this time from Plaid
Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Neath
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
LabourGwenda Thomas12,73653.4+10.0
Plaid CymruAlun Llewellyn6,34626.6−9.1
ConservativeAlex Powell2,78011.7−0.1
BNPMichael Green1,0044.2N/A
Liberal DemocratsMathew McCarthy9834.1−5.1
Majority6,39026.8
Turnout2384941.1−2.4
Labour holdSwing+9.6
again the 2007 result saw Plaid running Ma Thomas close

Welsh Assembly Election 2007: Neath[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
LabourGwenda Thomas10,93443.4−7.6
Plaid CymruAlun Llewellyn8,99035.7+6.9
ConservativeAndrew Sivertsen2,95611.7+2.6
Liberal DemocratsMrs Sheila Ramsay-Waye2,3209.2+0.0
Majority1,9447.7
Turnout25,20043.5+4.4
Labour holdSwing−7.3
 and this must be the sought of seat Plaid must win in order  to be making progress

But wining Llanelli may be vital for Plaid  Keith Davies took it from Helen Mary Jones  who is standing again and who will make history if she regains her seat for the second time.
Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Llanelli
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
LabourKeith Davies10,35939.7+3.7
Plaid CymruHelen Mary Jones10,27939.4−10.7
ConservativeAndrew Morgan2,88011.0+1.1
Putting Llanelli FirstSiân Caiach2,0047.7+7.7
Liberal DemocratsCheryl Philpott5482.1−1.7
Majority800.3
Turnout26,07044.6
Labour gain from Plaid CymruSwing+7.2
But the omens are not good .despite putting up a strong campaign last May Plaid saw a fairly large ffall in its vote and the question must be will a strong Ukip vote hinder or help Plaid regain this seat 
General Election 2015: Llanelli [10][11][12][13][14][15][16]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
LabourNia Griffith15,94841.3−1.1
Plaid CymruVaughan Williams8,85323.0−7.0
UKIPKenneth Rees6,26916.3+13.5
ConservativeSelaine Saxby5,53414.30.0
Liberal DemocratCen Phillips7511.9−8.5
GreenGuy Smith6891.8N/A
People FirstSiân Caiach4071.1N/A
TUSCScott Jones1230.3N/A
Majority7,09518.4
Turnout38,57465.0
Labour holdSwing+2.3
It a long time to May 2016 politically wise so it may be to early for predictions.

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