Tuesday, 2 June 2015

Can the Assembly take four more years of "Lethargic Labour".

There is (as usual) a thoughtful article by John Dixon  on  his Borthlas Blog on what  to do about Labour?.

I will not  repeat his wording here you really read it but he does point out the problem that Wales has with a Labour Party that even in bad years seems permanently to be the largest party in the Welsh Assembly.

Take the latest opinion polls (discredited or not) provided by elections in Wales provided by Elections in Wales

Labour: 28 seats (26 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Conservatives: 12 seats (6 constituency seats + 6 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 11 seats (6 constituency seats + 5 list seats)
UKIP: 7 seats (7 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats)
Taking this is to account Labour will probably  have to carry on as a majority a administration any idea of a Conservative r Plaid led Rainbow Coalition  looks impossible especially as it would have to include (as it it seems at present) Ukip
The prospect of Labour who probably will provide the Presiding Officer simply crying on in its own lethargic way 
it does not bode well  for the warning  Lee Waters is IWA Director. recently made  recently on Click on Wales that the Assembly needs to pursue a radical alternative to  a equally (in the other direction) Westminster 
Some may see this ability to defy a radical Westminster Government on at least some domestic fronts as the chief achievement of devolution – and it does provide a marked contrast to situation Wales faced in the 80s & 90s. But the real advantage devolution offers is the platform it provides to fashion an alternative political narrative. And that’s an advantage that has yet to be fully explored.
None of what I’ve argued lets the Welsh Government off the hook for its performance on policies and their implementation. But it does remind us that the devolution project was primarily about where power lies. The challenge now facing devolutionists is that unless the way those powers are used is sharpened up there is a risk that support for giving some powers back to Westminster may grow.
The LibDems may not  have the Numbers to make up their numbers and I suspect Kirsty Williams (La Pasionaria) may be reluctant to give up her opposition role which she exploits very well to be lost in government.
Plaid unless it could ensure the sort of Radical Alternative Lee Waters was indicating  would have to seriously consider a couple of ministerial positions in a Lab/Plaid coalition. was worse it.
So Labour seem likely to provide us with four more years of government that will fail to aspire the Welsh electorate  .
It does not bode well either Labour in Wales must change or be replaced i the same way they have been in Scotland and both look likely in the foreseeable future.


  1. Labour only believe in power as Lee Waters confirmed and this ‘new’ thinking from Leighton Andrews about a Welsh only party is nothing more than survival instincts kicking in, its always been Labour first, Wales second but us Welsh are to thick to see through the scam.

    Devolution was sold as a mechanism to protect Wales from the Tories and less than month since the election and the realisation of what’s to come has already brought back painful memories of the 80’s and 90’ s. Labour’s powerless to stop the Tories inflicting maximum pain and its Wales, not Labour who’ll pay dearly for that.

  2. I don't think Labour in Wales will face the same catastrophic meltdown as they have in Scotland.

    Growing up during the 1950's and 1960's, Labour were the dominant political party. Although they have lost ground since then, they will probably manage to hang onto power for some time yet.

    Unlike Scotland who have a strong, independent SNP opposition to stand against the Tories, we have the political 'midget' Owen Smith and various other political carpetbaggers within Labour's Welsh branch to defend us from further Tory cuts.