The 2016 Welsh election presents UKIP with its best-ever chance of winning seats at a national level.A sharp rise in the number of votes UKIP won in May saw the party placed third in Wales. It came second in 2014's European Parliamentary election, narrowly missing out on beating Labour into first place.The Last Poll for the Assembly Elections showed they could win a fair number of seats
That level of support and the proportional nature of the regional list system means that it stands a very good chance of returning a handful of AMs to the Senedd. Mark Reckless told me that that prospect increases the sense of responsibility.
Labour: 28 seats (26 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Conservatives: 12 seats (6 constituency seats + 6 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 11 seats (6 constituency seats + 5 list seats)
UKIP: 7 seats (7 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats)
With Europe and Immigration dominating probably dominating the news and with a right wing London media Ukip could potentially reach this target without hardly campaigning on the Streets.
You never know Mark Reckless might a positive manifesto calling for Wales to be given the same powers as Scotland but then Nigel Farage may give up the Pints and Fags.
However having a former English MP who writing their Weslh Manifesto as a reward for loosing his seat in May and who seems to have absolutely no Welsh connection looks like Ukip are treating Wales with contempt.
It as if they saying Wales as a Nation does not exist and we will treat it as part of England.
Expect the other parties to highlight this though careful not to appear to be using Anti-English, rhetoric,