Only a second referendum with preferences using AV can resolve this mess.

Brexit is beginning to resemble  a running gag in the TV show South Park, in which  Kenny would suffer an excruciating death before returning alive and well in the next episode with little or no explanation given. Stan would frequently use the catchphrase "Oh, my God! They killed Kenny!", followed by Kyle exclaiming "...You bastards!" Since the show began its sixth season in 2002, the practice of killing Kenny has been seldom used by the show's creators. Various episodes have set up the gag, sometimes presenting a number of explanations for Kenny's unacknowledged reappearances.



For Three years our beloved Prime Minister has put the unity of her Party first , by appeasing a minority (?) of her MPs particularly those in the European Reform Group and in doing so failing to gather any kind of consensus not only in the Westminster Parliament ,but  in the UK as a whole.

Those MPs who enthusiastically voted for article 30 falling gor the line that leaving the EU would be easy  could be forgiven , that May would completely make a Dogs breakfast of the whole thing.

 The EU could offer the UK an extension of up to a year for Brexit.

Prime minister Theresa May has written to Europe asking for the Brexit deadline to be extended to June 30.

Prime minister Theresa May has written to Europe asking for the Brexit deadline to be extended to June 30.meaning in May we will be supposed to be going to the polls to elect MEP who could serve just over a month, before they are out of a job.

But the EU have hinted that they will instead offer an extension, or "flextension", of up to a year.

Britain is actually  due to leave the EU at the end of next week, but now May has again asked to delay Brexit for a second time after her deal was rejected for a third time by the House of Commons last week.

The Prime Minister said she will seek to ratify her Withdrawal Agreement before the European Parliament elections on May 23, but will make "responsible preparations" to take part if that does not prove possible.

Quite frankly this blog is at a complete loss , to see how our current Parliament or if the polls are correct a General Election, can resolve the issue.

The only way in which we can solve the issue is revoking Article 30 or accepting the EU's "flextension", of up to a year and have a second referendum, which offers a number of preferences through some kind of "Alternative Vote", which if not resolving the hostile environment , that Brexit  has created will at least give our elected representatives a real template to work on.

But I suspect that Mrs May is in a phase akin to the film Downfall (2004) and like Hitler in his bunker she realises she is doomed and is prepared to take the whole of the UK down with her.

Why is Welsh English - Health Care going only one-way?

The news that an English hospital has said it will no longer take in patients from Wales except emergencies and maternity cases, seems to me more of political decision than any question of lack of funding.

On Thursday the BBC reported that

The Countess of Chester NHS Foundation Trust decision will impact on thousands of people in Flintshire who currently use it, with immediate effect.
The decision follows a row over payments to the hospital for caring for patients from Wales.
A Welsh Government spokesman said limiting access to Wales' patients on financial grounds was "not acceptable".
GPs in Wales will no longer be able to refer patients for treatment over the border at the hospital.
Wrexham Maelor Hospital and Ysbyty Glan Clwyd are the next closest hospitals for patients in the area.
Chief executive of Countess of Chester Hospital, Susan Gilby, said it was 

"a difficult decision" down to "unresolved funding issues".

"Unfortunately, the trust is currently unable to accept any new elective work relating to patients living in Wales.
"We will of course honour any existing appointments so there will be no disruption for patients already waiting.
"This is a difficult decision that has been taken with great reluctance.

 Ms Gilby added that contract negotiations were continuing and the trust was working with Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board in north Wales to resolve the issue.The trust's chairman, Sir Duncan Nichol, previously said caring for patients from Wales was "hard to countenance" due to costs.The trust told BBC Wales in October 2018 that 23,500 patients from Wales were treated over the border in 2016-17 for mainly secondary care, which cost £31.2m.
Evan Moore, from Betsi Cadwaladr, said they were working to "accommodate newly referred patients" within existing services in Wales.

"We will be writing to all affected GPs and medical staff to inform them of these changes," he said.
Mr Moore added that the decision did not affect cancer patients, urgent elective patients already referred to COC

 Speaking at a Welsh Assembly scrutiny committee, Mark Drakeford said if the Countess of Chester did not provide services then it will "have to face up to facts" 

that funding from Wales "is not going to flow to them in future"."There is a very direct interest that they have at stake here, which they sometimes, seems to me, underplay in the public statements that they make," he said.
"Welsh patients are part of their bottom line, in the way that the English system is run."

Mr Drakeford said the immediate focus in resolving the problem should be via a "sensible agreement" between both sides.

"Some sense of reciprocity is essential in all of this - and reciprocity from the Countess of Chester needs to be part of that conversation," he said.
"Over the period of devolution, there are regular suggestions from English providers that sometimes Wales doesn't pay our bills.
"Every time that has been looked at that, that has turned out not to be true. We have always paid our bills."

 Speaking to BBC Radio Wales, Wrexham-based GP Dr Peter Saul said: 

"They [both sides] should have reached an agreement and they certainly shouldn't have put patients at risk."They shouldn't be taking unilateral action, they need to get back together and sort this out.
"One of the problems that is already happening is that if we can't send patients to hospitals that have traditionally taken them, it puts an additional strain on hospitals on the Welsh side of the border and they are already struggling with capacity."

Dr Eamonn Jessup, a locum GP in north Wales added: "North Wales does not have enough capacity for the demand upon it as it is, a sudden influx of patients like this will cause the service to collapse."
The Robert Jones and Agnes Hunt Orthopaedic Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, in Gobowen, Shropshire, said it had no current funding issues with the Welsh Government.
But it added it was "aware of a potential issue emerging for the forthcoming year that we understand is being discussed between the Department of Health and Welsh Government".
Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust, which is the main provider of general hospital services for Shropshire, Telford & Wrekin and mid-Wales, said it was not affected.

There  will and should be cross boarder cooperation between counties when it comes to health provision , and I see no reason even with different health policies an Independent Wales could not work out to catty on doing so with our English neighbours.

But we need to ask the question ,why does it seem to be going only one way ?

Twenty years after devolution there has  seemed to be little move to address the issue by providing health care for those who are affected and face crossing the boarder to seek the care they need.

Even without devolution it would be very likely that such a row between different Health Authorities , would occasionally  develop.

On Tuesday I have to attend a clinic at the Heath Hospital in Cardiff at my last one I met a woman with the same condition who had travelled from Carmarthen, and I believe it deals with people from Pembrokeshire. So a number of different Health Authorities, will face paying for treatment i another.

Its not just a question of Welsh Identity, its about making sure patients do not have to travel long distances.

Maybe we should consider building an hospital that accommodate  people  , who face the dilemma of crossing the boarder , for the health care they need.

Certainly we can't carry on with English NHS  hospitals treating Welsh Patients as second class citizens even if they are paying the same as their counterparts on that side of the boarder.

Labour win Newport West By-election.

The Newport West By-election has not sent an earthquake through Welsh Politics and very much went the way as predicted.

It seems Brexit may have had little effect on the result and even Ukip third place may have been due to Neil Hamilton notoriety .


The position of the top Six has been unchanged in the last three elections.

Newport West by-election 2019

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Ruth Jones	9,308	39.6	-12.7
	Conservative	Matthew Evans	7,357	31.3	-8.0
	UKIP	Neil Hamilton	2,023	8.6	+6.1
	Plaid Cymru	Jonathan Clark	1,185	5.0	+2.5
	Liberal Democrat	Ryan Jones	1,088	4.6	+2.4
	Green	Amelia Womack	924	3.9	+2.8
	Renew	June Davies	879	3.7	N/A
	Abolish the Welsh Assembly	Richard Suchorzewski	205	0.9	N/A
	SDP	Ian McLean	202	0.9	N/A
	Democrats and Veterans	Philip Taylor	185	0.8	N/A
	For Britain	Hugh Nicklin	159	0.7	N/A
Majority			1,951	8.2	-4.8
Turnout			23,615	37.1	-30.4
Registered electors
	Labour hold		Swing	-2.4

The last election saw the late Paul Flynn Comfortably ahead

General Election 2017: Newport West

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Paul Flynn[6]	22,723	52.3	+11.1
	Conservative	Angela Jones-Evans[7][6]	17,065	39.3	+6.8
	UKIP	Stan Edwards	1,100	2.5	-12.7
	Plaid Cymru	Morgan Bowler-Brown[6]	1,077	2.5	-1.5
	Liberal Democrat	Sarah Lockyer	976	2.2	-1.7
	Green	Pippa Bartolotti[8]	497	1.1	-2.0
Majority			5,658	13.0	+4.3
Turnout			43,438	67.5	+2.6
Registered electors			64,399
	Labour hold		Swing	+2.2

Though Ukip have seen their vote decline in the last four years.

General Election 2015: Newport West^[9]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Paul Flynn	16,633	41.2	-0.1
	Conservative	Nick Webb	13,123	32.5	+0.2
	UKIP	Gordon Norrie	6,134	15.2	+12.3
	Plaid Cymru	Simon Coopey	1,604	4.0	+1.2
	Liberal Democrat	Ed Townsend	1,581	3.9	-12.7
	Green	Pippa Bartolotti	1,272	3.2	+2.1
Majority			3,510	8.7	-0.2
Turnout			40,347	64.9	+0.1
Registered electors			62,137
	Labour hold		Swing	-0.1

Maybe Ukip are probably the happiest  with their third place and Plaid the most frustrated and wondering if Labour's lies about them forming a coalition with the Tories after the next Assembly election had any affect .


For the Liberal Democrats this was not one of the seats that they have ever made a serious challenge too, and it looks like Newport West , will remain a two seat marginal for a while longer.

Brexit for some reason seems to have had little effect on the result and it appears that both parties who think that Brexit will favour them and those who advocate Remain thinking it will break the two party system are misguided.

Indeed as the Tories and Labour continue meeting to find some way out of the Brexit deadlock they may not be too worried about a negative response from the voters.

But we will see.

Violent Brexit: Can we rely on neutrality from those supposed to defend us?

The reports that senior police chief has warned. politicians and campaigners should take care not to "inflame" tensions in the UK caused by Brexit, a senior police chief has warned.

The Metropolitan Police Service's Assistant Commissioner, Martin Hewitt, said people should think carefully to avoid inciting others to violence.

The warning follows increased concern about intimidation of MPs. and comes after the disclosure  that  the British Army has launched an investigation after an "unacceptable" video circulated appearing to show soldiers using an image of Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn for target practice.

The Independent says that...

..The video, which the Ministry of Defence is treating as legitimate, was filmed on Snapchat before being shared across social media.

The British Army has launched an investigation after an "unacceptable" video circulated appearing to show soldiers using an image of Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn for target practice.The video, which the Ministry of Defence is treating as legitimate, was filmed on Snapchat before being shared across social media.
It shows soldiers firing shots, believed to be non-lethal paint simulation rounds, into an image of the Labour leader, leaving several holes in the poster.A caption on the video reads "happy with that".It is not known when the video was filmed but it is believed to have been taken in a loft range of a British Government building in Kabul, Afghanistan.A spokesperson for the British Army said the behaviour was "unacceptable" and an inquiry had been launched."We are aware of a video circulating on social media," the spokesperson said in a statement to ABC News."This behaviour is totally unacceptable and falls well below the high standards the Army expects, a full investigation has been launched.A Labour Party spokesperson said the incident was "alarming and unacceptable"."We have confidence in the MoD to investigate and act on this incident," the spokesperson said in a statement.Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat, who served as a lieutenant colonel in the Army during tours of Iraq and Afghanistan, labelled the video as "disgraceful"."This is disgraceful and falls far below the standards expected of British Army soldiers," he tweeted.The leaking of the video comes at a time where the safety of British MPs is in the spotlight due to rising tensions over Brexit.

The reality is that at the moment nearly  all the violence and intimidation has come from right wing supporters of Brexit .

There was one incident of Jacob Ress Mogg , being intimidated by members of Class War when with his family which was disgraceful.

But by large it is leave supporters who have been the victims of violence and imitation.

There may be warnings of a violent reaction by some far right Brexit supporters if Brexit was cancelled but there wil be equally a triumphalist reaction, from exactly the same people similar to what we saw in George  Square in Glasgow after the rejection of the Scottish Independence referendum  with  "Chants of 'Ten German Bombers', 'Rule Britannia' and 'God Save The Queen' (the latter with what many would interpret as a Nazi-style salute)  rang out.

The Corbyn Target  video and the failure of the police to take action against the violent intimidation of Remain supporters leads to me to wonder if we can depend on a neutrality from those who are supposed to defend all of us.

Wales cannot be tied to the destructive Brexit nationalism of England.

There is to me at least a very disturbing argument on  Click on Wales from Labour AM Mike Hedges , who Wikipedia state is s one of the few Welsh Labour members to support Welsh Independence.

The article "Is Wales too small or too poor to be independent?"  does dismiss the "too small" argument" but Mr Hedges then goes on to argue that Brexit will scupper any chance of an Independent Wales .

He writes .

What we have seen with Brexit is that there is a hard and soft split. A soft split from the UK would involve a customs union, free trade, free movement of people which implies common immigration rules, common welfare benefits, a currency union, common VAT, “sin” taxes, and allowing the Bank of England to act as the central bank. Under this scenario the only things that would change would be that an independent Wales would have a lower income from taxes and either poorer public services or higher income tax or a combination of both, but we would have a seat at the United Nations. A hard split from the UK would involve a hard border, no customs union, no free movement of people, a new Welsh currency and central bank and full control over taxes.  Trade with England would be on World Trade Organisation terms but again with a seat at the United Nations. If leaving the European Union on such terms would be against our interests leaving a union with the rest of the UK on such terms would be catastrophic. There are also additional costs with creating a new country such as embassies across the world, creating foreign policy and defence against terrorist attacks which will all be greater than we currently pay as our UK share. Whilst there are non-economic arguments against leaving the UK, otherwise London would set itself up as a city state, I have not addressed them here.  I have attempted to answer John Ball’s two questions: we are not poor or too small, but we would be a lot poorer than we are now if we had independence.

What Mr Hedges seems to be stating that although we are already the poorest nation in the UK and one of the poorest in Western Union, there is no way out and  we will be for ever tied  even as an independent nation to any trade treaty that the current UK or an English dominated union make.

He does not mention Scotland for who Independence  will likely see them being fast tracked into the European Union and even before that will have established a custom union and  the single market from day one.

Why not assume that Wales could in a few years after an Independent Scotland do likewise?
The EU may well consider moving the boarder with Ireland from either a hard Brexit   with Northern Ireland or a softer Irish Sea, to the Welsh Boarder with England a good idea.

Other wise we have a case akin to an controlling partner  advised to stay with their   abuser , because they would face a life of poverty if they attempted to make a life away from  them.

Whatever happens in the future Wales cannot, base this decision on the self destructive nationalism of England.

When Wales needs leadership we get Mark Drakeford .

One of the disastrous outcomes of the three years of Brexit is the complete failure of the leadership of Labour in the UK under Jeremy Corbyn and in Wales under Carwyn Jones/Mark Drakeford  in Wales to provide leadership.

All we have is Jeremy Corbyn who claims to have "a cunning plan " and Mark Drayford who seems to have no plan whatsoever.

Well until now 

According to the BBC

Labour MPs must set aside their own "personal red-lines" to find a compromise in order to resolve the Brexit deadlock, according to Wales' first minister.
Mark Drakeford said MPs need to find agreement on a way forward that is not "necessarily their top preference".
MPs will hold further votes on Monday night on Brexit alternatives.
Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement was rejected by the House of Commons last week for a third time.
The first minister also dismissed the idea of the prime minister asking MPs to vote on her Brexit deal for a fourth time.

 Had she been defeated narrowly the first time there was a case for her saying that she could try and persuade more people and bring them over," Mr Drakeford said at his monthly press conference in Cardiff.

"What does it take for that message to get through to her that her proposition cannot and, I believe, will not secure a majority?
"She must move, just like everybody else must move ... to find a place where that majority can be secured," he added.

In an attempt to force the government's hand, MPs will hold their second non-binding vote later on a series of options to see if any of them can command a majority in Parliament.
Mr Drakeford did not recommend MPs back any of the specific options available to them in today's indicative votes.
He said he would welcome "any step" that shifts government policy towards the soft Brexit outlined in a joint Labour-Plaid Cymru white paper in 2017.

 Plaid Cymru's international relations spokesperson Delyth Jewell AM said it was "simply unacceptable" for the first minister to refuse to "tell the public which options he's advocating".But Mr Drakeford said he had been "clear and consistent" that another referendum should be called if the House of Commons cannot agree.
Mrs May's "manoeuvring" had made a general election less likely, he said, even though it was the "constitutionally proper" way to solve the crisis.
He added: 

"I understand that Labour's handling of things at the Westminster end has been frustrating to a number of our members, who are very committed to finding a way of not leaving the European Union or having a very close relationship with the European Union.

"Just as I know that if you knock doors in Labour-supporting areas that voted powerfully to leave, there is a frustration there that Labour hasn't delivered on the instruction - as they would put it - that we were given."

To some extent i can understand both Mr Drakeford 's and his predecessors reluctance at first to go against the "Will of the People" considering Wales alongside England voted Leave.

However  as Theressa May's government began to make an omnishambles  of the whole procedure as she seemed to get her Brexit means Brexit from the owners of UK Tabloid Newspapers, he should have strengthen  his alliance with the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (Now that's a leader) and work with other parties to see that any proposal including REMAIN put back to the electorate.

There has always been a suspicion that like Jeremy Corbyn  Mr Drakeford  supports not only Brexit but something similar to our Prime Minister.

When we see politicians calling for compromise it is meaningless unless they gave us a indication of what that entails.

The Tories seem content to run the clock down and leave us with accepting Mrs May's completely unchanged Deal or end up with a No Deal.

At this  time of crisis if you accept that Welsh Nation hod means more than wining a Grand Slam then who can deny that we need a leadership other than that is provided by the Labour Party in both the Assembly and Westminster?

Fooled in April and beyond.

I am somewhat reluctant to post today April 1st as anything by anyone who uses any Social Media could be seen as carrying out a April Fools Spoof.

Such is the strange state we are in  that when the Independent report s that the Independent report that

..."Conservative MPs are reportedly preparing to block any attempt by Theresa May to call a general election in a bid to resolve the Brexit crisis can hardly b ebeleived.The prime minister and some of her closest advisers are believed to be considering a snap poll if her withdrawal agreement is put forward and voted down for a fourth time this week.Yet senior Conservatives have said that an election would be a disaster, fearing their bitterly divided party would be wiped out at the ballot box.Some are adamant Ms May should not lead the Tories in any election in the months ahead, with one telling The Sunday Telegraph the party would be “annihilated”.“Theresa May cannot call an election, she cannot be the leader who would lead us into it. The party would not tolerate it,” Nigel Evans, executive secretary of the 1922 committee, told The Observer.One cabinet minister told the same newspaper that Tory MPs would vote down any effort to call a general election, since Ms May would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons to secure it.“If we have a general election before Brexit is resolved, it will only make things worse,” said Foreign Office minister Alan Duncan.“There is no one in the cabinet who thinks she should lead us into a general election,” one cabinet member said.Reports suggest the cabinet is at risk of imminent collapse, with Ms May facing resignations from senior ministers on both sides of the Brexit divide depending on what course she takes next.At least six members of her cabinet will resign if she heads for a no-deal Brexit, according to The Sunday Times, yet Brexiteer members have apparently made clear they would resign if she backed a customs union or sought another delay.The newspaper said a possible “run-off” vote could take place in parliament on Tuesday between Ms May’s deal and whatever alternative emerges as the most popular from indicative voting by MPs on Monday.It means, in theory, an attempt to call a general election could be made as early as Wednesday.Tory MPs are worried about a shift towards Labour in the poll. A new Deltapoll survey for The Mail on Sunday shows Labour on 41 points, five points ahead of the Tories on 36. Only last month Deltapoll gave the Tories a seven point lead.A fresh Opinium poll for The Observer, meanwhile, shows Ms May’s lead over Jeremy Corbyn on who would make the best prime minister has fallen from 15 points to 7 points in the past month.The poll also reveals Boris Johnson as the only Tory with a lead over the Labour leader.On Saturday Nicky Morgan suggested a national unity government may soon be required to end the Brexit crisis.“If the government refused and Theresa May felt she could not implement what parliament had identified as a way of leaving the EU, then I think we would have to think very hard about whether a cross-party coalition ... Could do that in order to make sure that the UK does leave the EU in an orderly fashion,” the former education secretary told BBC News.

Tories may be worries that a General Election under Mrs May  , who has promised to resign is hardly giving the message of leadership.

BUt also the two frontrunners to become the next Prime Minister.

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are  implicated in  a campaign that broke the law. It also disgracefully produced leaflets which suggested Turkey was about to join the EU and its entire population were going to come and live here. That should be enough to deny anyone elected office on its own, even without the illegality.

It's hardly been covered but Vote Leave which both Johnson and Gove were prominent in a campaign that broke electorate law

including 

• Vote Leave’s referendum spending was £7,449,079.34, exceeding its statutory spending limit of £7 million.

• Vote Leave’s spending return was inaccurate in respect of 43 items of spending, totalling £236,501.44. Eight payments of over £200 in Vote Leave’s return did not have an invoice or receipt with them. These payments came to £12,849.99.

Can we really see our next Prime Minister , exposed as being part of a campaign that cheated in the referendum. Can the few honourable Tory MPs still in the commons  or potential candidates , in a electoral photo-shoot?

Well yes such is the whole sorry saga of Brexit that the media who should be investigating how both sides behaved during a dishonest campaign and have evidence one has cheated , may not even bring it up when interviewing candidates for the next Prime Minister .

In the meantime we could well be fooled in April and the following months.