It seems that in Europe those progressives who are alarmed at he rise of the Far Right , seem to be deserting traditional established to Socialists parties and turning to the Greens or other Left Parties
The 2018 Bavarian state election took place on Sunday to elect the 180 members of the 18th Landtag of Bavaria.[
The parties of the CDU/CSU-SPD federal-government grand coalition suffered heavy losses. The CSU and the SPD both lost more than 10 percentage points compared to the 2013 election, finishing at 37.2% (CSU) and 9.7% (SPD) respectively. AfD, which ran in Bavaria for the first time, made double-digit gains and won 10.2% of the total vote. The Greens gained 8.9pp and hence finished as the second strongest party, at 17.5%, replacing the SPD. The FDP, which failed to enter the Landtag in 2013, barely made it with 5.1% (+1.8pp) as the smallest party in the new legislature; the Bavarian Free Voters gained 2.6pp and finished third, slightly ahead of AfD at 11.6%. All other parties failed to cross the 5% threshold required to make it into the Bavarian Landtag
| Party | Ideology | Votes | Votes % (change) | Seats (change) | Seats % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Social Union (CSU) | Christian democracy | 5,047,006 | 37.2% | −10.4pp | 85 | −16 | 41.5% | |
| Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen) | Green politics | 2,377,766 | 17.5% | +8.9pp | 38 | +20 | 18.5% | |
| Free Voters (FW) | Regionalism | 1,571,288 | 11.6% | +2.6pp | 27 | +8 | 13.2% | |
| Alternative for Germany (AfD) | German nationalism | 1,383,866 | 10.2% | +10.2pp | 22 | +22 | 10.7% | |
| Social Democratic Party (SPD) | Social democracy | 1,317,942 | 9.7% | −10.9pp | 22 | −20 | 10.7% | |
| Free Democratic Party (FDP) | Liberalism | 687,842 | 5.1% | +1.8pp | 11 | +11 | 5.4% | |
| The Left (Die Linke) | Democratic socialism | 435,949 | 3.2% | +1.1pp | 0 | ±0 | 0% | |
| Bavaria Party (BP) | Bavarian nationalism | 231,930 | 1.7% | −0.4pp | 0 | ±0 | 0% | |
| Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) | Green conservatism | 211,784 | 1.6% | −0.5pp | 0 | ±0 | 0% | |
| Pirate Party (Piraten) | Pirate politics | 60,087 | 0.4% | −1.5pp | 0 | ±0 | 0% | |
| Party for Franconia (Die Franken) | Regionalism | 31,547 | 0.2% | −0.5pp | 0 | ±0 | 0% | |
| Others | 0 | ±0 | 0% | |||||
| Total | 11,812,965 | 100.0% | 205 | +25 | ||||
In this case it was the Greens that matched the rise of the Far Right AFD, whilst the Conservative CSU and the Socialists SDP both saw major losses
The other major winner were the Free Voters which appears to be a strange case of Centralist-Populism.
Free Voters (German: Freie Wähler, FW or FWG) in Germany may belong to an association of people which participates in an election without having the status of a registered political party. Usually it involves a locally organized group of voters in the form of a registered association (eV). In most cases, Free Voters campaign only at the local-government level, standing for city councils and for mayoralties. Free Voters tend to achieve their most successful electoral results in rural areas of southern Germany, appealing most to conservative voters who prefer local decisions to party politics. Free Voter groups are active in all German states.
Unlike in the other German states, the Free Voters of Bavaria have also contested state elections since 1998. In the Bavaria state election of 2008 FW obtained 10.2% of the vote and gained their first 20 seats in the Landtag.[1] FW may have been helped by the presence in its list of Gabriele Pauli, a former member of the Christian Social Union of Bavaria.[2][3] Others suggested that the cause and effect might be the other way about.[4] In the state election of 2013 FW repeated its success, gaining 19 seats. Then, in the 2018 Landtag elections, the Free Voters won a record 27 seats.
Although this is a regional elections it reflects a general disillusionment with the main Conservative and Socialists Parties in Europe that has resulted in a rise of the Far-right , but also of alternative left parties or rhge Greens, or as in Sweden anyone else but the establishment.
Results[edit]
 | ||||||
| Party | Votes | % | Seats | +/− | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democratic Party | S | 1,830,386 | 28.26 | 100 | −13 | |
| Moderate Party | M | 1,284,698 | 19.84 | 70 | −14 | |
| Sweden Democrats | SD | 1,135,627 | 17.53 | 62 | +13 | |
| Centre Party | C | 557,500 | 8.61 | 31 | +9 | |
| Left Party | V | 518,454 | 8.00 | 28 | +7 | |
| Christian Democrats | KD | 409,478 | 6.32 | 22 | +6 | |
| Liberals | L | 355,546 | 5.49 | 20 | +1 | |
| Green Party | MP | 285,899 | 4.41 | 16 | −9 | |
From a UK point of view, the reverse seems to be the story..
Not having a proportional electoral system means that outside Wales , Scotland and Ireland i;e England it is very difficult for disillusioned voter to select an alternative party that can actually win.
| Conservative | DUP | LD | SNP | Labour |
| Party | Leader | MPs | Votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Of total | Of total | |||||||
| Conservative Party | Theresa May | 317 | 48.8% |
317 / 650
| 13,636,684 | 42.4% | ||
| Labour Party | Jeremy Corbyn | 262 | 40.3% |
262 / 650
| 12,878,460 | 40.0% | ||
| Scottish National Party | Nicola Sturgeon | 35 | 5.4% |
35 / 650
| 977,569 | 3.0% | ||
| Liberal Democrats | Tim Farron | 12 | 1.8% |
12 / 650
| 2,371,910 | 7.4% | ||
| Democratic Unionist Party | Arlene Foster | 10 | 1.5% |
10 / 650
| 292,316 | 0.9% | ||
| Sinn Féin | Gerry Adams | 7 | 1.1% |
7 / 650
| 238,915 | 0.7% | ||
| Plaid Cymru | Leanne Wood | 4 | 0.6% |
4 / 650
| 164,466 | 0.5% | ||
| Green Party of England and Wales | Jonathan Bartley Caroline Lucas | 1 | 0.2% |
1 / 650
| 525,435 | 1.6% | ||
| Speaker | John Bercow | 1 | 0.2% |
1 / 650
| 34,299 | 0.1% | ||
| Independent | Sylvia Hermon | 1 | 0.2% |
1 / 650
| 16,148 | 0.1% | ||
The Plaid and SNP votes which may contain some " protest vote" , there is also a strong desire for regional autonomy and independence.
But in England voters seem tied to the two major parties.
To some extent the Corbyn factor has helped to attract the Left-wing Progressives from alternatives like the Greens and Brexit has seen the Tories , attract former voters for far right immigration parties like Ukip.
So Wales and Scotland may be following the pattern of the demise of established Right-Left parties, but clearly in England , there are really only two dominant parties.
Whether this is good for democracy however is an important question and if the answer is no, then it seems to be something that cannot be resolved under the First Past the Post electoral system.
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