Saturday, 13 August 2016

Is Scotland becoming an Independence (SNP) V Unionist (Lab/Tory) battleground.?

There were two council byelections in Scotland Yesterday
Renfrew South and Gallowhill (Lab defence) on Renfrewshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 22, Scottish National Party 15, Liberal Democrat 1, Conservative 1, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,229869 (48%)
Scottish National Party 1,258, 629 (43%)
Conservatives 197 (5%)
Liberal Democrats 86 (2%)
Scottish Socialists 90 (2%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 57,119 (65%) LEAVE 31,010 (35%) on a turnout of 69%
Candidates duly nominated: Mark Dougan (Con), Edward Grady (Lab), Jim Paterson (SNP), Ross Stalker (Lib Dem)
Result
First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,309 (48% +5%), Labour 1,012 (37% -11%), Conservative 366 (13% +8%), Liberal Democrat 53 (2% unchanged)
SNP lead of 297 (11%) on a swing of 8% from Lab to SNP
SNP GAIN from Labour on the fourth count

Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 12, Labour 11, Independents 6, Conservative 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 691, 1,374 E (40%)
Scottish National Party 1,624, 265 (37%)
Conservatives 614 (12%)
Liberal Democrats 246 (5%)
Independent 4%
Socialist Labour Party 81 (1%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 51 (1%)
Result
First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,164 (37% unchanged), Labour 1,029 (33% -7%), Conservative 639 (21% +9%), Socialist Labour Party 131 (4% +3%), Green Party 94 (3%, no candidate in 2012), Liberal Democrat 48 (2% -3%)
SNP lead of 135 (4%) on a swing of 3.5% from Lab to SNP
Labour GAIN from SNP on the sixth count

So we have the unusual situation in a seat with a swing from Lab to the SNP and the latter despite having the mist First Preference Vote

This was of course due to STV  and transfer votes. (click to enlarge)




So we see that by the end  Labour gained  the most transferable votes including the votes of the Scottish Socialist Party.

This may reflect the position of the Labour Candidate  but the SNP were still ahead

It was the Tory vote that swung it which prompted as Wings Over Scotland pointed out  some interesting tweets.

wellswhittle

Can the Unionist alliance forged in the NO vote in the Scottish Referendum have reached the point that the Tories are celebrating a Labour win over the SNP?

When it comes to ordinary Council Elections under STV  political parties have to anticipate the sort of vote they will get in the election and decide whether to put up one candidate and virtually guarantees a seat  or put up two splitting their vote in the earlier stages  and loosing out on both.

Can the Irvine West result persuade  the Unionist parties of Labour and Tories having an  informal agreement in the number of candidates that could see votes transferred between them in order to defeat the Nationalist.

Are we seeing Scottish Politics divided in to the Nationalist largely represented by the SNP and and a Unionist Bloc comprising of "Sottish" Labour and Conservatives.

Many of us under the First past the Post system are familiar  with the often ridiculous claim of

Vote X get Y


But under SYV n Scotland we may be seeing an argument on the lines of 

Vote Unionist get Tory.








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3 comments:

  1. I think you got the conclusion wrong.
    Should have been Don't vote SNP get Unionist (Tory)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Maybe I should have put down get Red Tory of Blur Tory?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Maybe I should have put down get Red Tory of Blur Tory?

    ReplyDelete