Saturday, 30 April 2016

Plaid may well be feeling a wind change in thier favour.

Looking at Social Media Plaid activist  appear to have gained an extra spring in their step 

With a strong performance in the last Leaders Debate  which the Wasting Mule called for the Plaid leader Leanne Wood and  its readers even more so

We asked readers to rate the leaders performances on the 90-minute debate chaired by Huw Edwards - and to tell us who they thought would make the best First Minister.
On both questions, Plaid leader Ms Wood came out resoundingly on top.
Our ratings tool was completed 5,017 times during and after the debate and our short questionnaire was filled out by 1,807 people. Voting has now closed.
..
The next was La Pasionaria  of the Lib Dems with 5,3/10 and 16.1%

Also according to the Mule

Latest polling data has revealed where the closest contests in next week’s National Assembly election are likely to be.
These, and all other projections, are derived from a Wales-wide poll and calculated on the basis of a uniform national swing.
And it looks promising for Plaid

Aberconwy 
 There, just 0.1% separates Tory Janet-Finch-Saunders, who has held the seat for the last five years, from her Plaid Cymru rival Trystan Lewis.
According to YouGov’s most recent poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, the Conservatives are on 28.0% of the vote, against 27.9% for Plaid Cymru. Labour is a fairly distant third on 16.4%.
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 
Currently held by the Conservatives’ Angela Burns. But according to the poll she is trailing to Plaid Cymru’s Simon Thomas. He is said to be on 31.4%, with Ms Burns on 29.9%. Labour is trailing on 21.2%.
Llanelli,
 Director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs Lee Waters is defending the seat against former Plaid Cymru AM Helen Mary Jones. The poll puts Ms Jones ahead by 41.1% to 30.4%.
Plaid may be also eyeing Clwyd West  where they were on a healthy 23% and have  one of their top AMs  Llyr Huws Gruffydd who may be hoping that he wins there and not be reliant on results to win  for the Regional lists 
There's  also the question that  a late surge could see Leanne toppling Leighton Andrews in the Rhondda and Neil McEvoy  pulling off a major shock in Cardiff West.
Going into the last week couldn't be worse for Labour in what to me seems to be an orchestrated attempt  to use the Anti-Semitism   row to dislodge its leader  . It seems some Labour figures at Westminster seem prepared to sacrifice  its candidates the Welsh  Assembly , the Scottish Parliament  and local elections in England .
Mr Corbyn was due to appear with "Welsh Leader" Carwyn Jones appear on Friday at the Pencoed campus of Bridgend College to meet staff and apprentices .

 There are some reports that Mr Corbyn was asked to stay away but probably it was due to Mr Corbyn  has bigger problems at home.

If Plaid can maintain the momentum   and renewed optimism  they may well get a further boost from deserting Labour voters, It may not be for the right reason but it could lead to even more surprises  next Thursday,

1 comment:

  1. You suggest that in Aberconwy "just 0.1% separates Tory Janet-Finch-Saunders, who has held the seat for the last five years, from her Plaid Cymru rival Trystan Lewis."

    There has been no opinion poll in Aberconwy, and some people are going to be disappointed when they wake up on Friday morning. The percentages you quote are extrapolations from the election of 2011,where, for health reasons, Welsh Labour's candidate had to be changed only six weeks before the election. As I see it (and I have done a lot of door knocking over the last few weeks), Aberconwy is a battleground between Tories and Labour, with Plaid a respectable third.

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