Thursday, 14 April 2016

Leader's Ratings in Welsh Poll.

I am not sure how seriously  we can take Barometer polls, on the leaders ratings

As ever we are indebted to Roger Scully  and you can read his analysis here 
Respondents were rate the leaders on a 0-10 scale, where 0 means ‘strongly dislike’ and 10 means ‘strongly like’. We asked the question about all the main UK and Welsh party leaders.

 Here are the average scores out of ten for each leader (from those who felt able to give each leader a rating; many others chose Don’t Know) in our latest poll, alongside the figures for the February Barometer poll and the March Welsh Election Study survey:

LeaderApril BarometerMarch WESFeb Barometer
David Cameron2.93.23.3
Jeremy Corbyn4.24.14.0
Tim Farron3.83.53.7
Nigel Farage3.23.13.6
Natalie Bennett4.03.73.8
Carwyn Jones4.74.64.9
Andrew RT Davies3.43.43.4
Kirsty Williams4.34.04.3
Leanne Wood4.64.54.5
Nathan Gill3.12.93.0
Alice Hooker-Stroud3.33.23.1

Two  question  needs to be asked .

What is the size of teh don't knows 

Where people informed which party the "Leaders belonged to.

Interesting to note that Labours Carwyn Jones and Plaid's Leane Wood are well ahead of the pack

Proffessor Scully writes that 

There is some apparent decline seen here in ratings of David Cameron – this very much fits with the general decline in the poll ratings of the Conservatives since February. Given how prominent the Prime Minister has been in much of the Conservative literature that Welsh voters have received in recent months (and, living in Cardiff North, I see plenty of that material!), any decline in his popularity will do nothing to help the electoral prospects of his party. That the Prime Minister is now apparently the most unpopular political leader in Wales cannot be good news for the Tories.
The Tory Leaflet I received via the post which I assume they paid foras it not a candidates election communication  give Cameron  large prominence and Jeremy Corbyn  given as the "Nightmare Alternative"

John Davies over at Borthlas has saved me the task of dissecting this leaflet  so over you go for a moment.
We can wonder  if Labour leaflets will have prominent promotion of Jeremy  Corbyn in an"All Wales" leaflet  or will  it be targeted only in Labour strongholds 

National Left  wonders whether  the UK leaders of Labour and the Conservatives will have such prominence in the campaign in Scotland especially as the always excellent  Munguin's Republic asks the question

Has the Conservative Party abandoned that name in Scotland?
Professor Scully continues
One of Welsh Labour’s prominent figures apparently described Carwyn Jones the other day as being ‘head-and-shoulders’ above any other Welsh party leader or politician. In terms of broad political ability and leadership – well, it’s really not for me, a humble psephologist, to comment. In terms of popularity the First Minister is hardly head-and-shoulders above the others, and Leanne Wood in particular. Carwyn Jones’ ratings are also about one whole point (on this 0-10 scale) below where they were five years ago. But he remains relatively popular, and is I think clearly still one of Labour’s biggest electoral assets in Wales.
We however need to ask the correlation between prominence and popularity?


  1. 'We asked the question about all the main UK and Welsh party leaders'

    No Nocola Sturgeon? Has Scotland gained it's Independence from the UK? Tell me it's true?