Tuesday, 26 April 2016

Labour may welcome Ukip presence in the Welsh Assembly.

One of the interesting things about the  latest  Welsh Political Barometer poll.  Is that Labour appear to be the only Party to be adversely  by the second preference vote  for the Regional seats

Constituency Vote

Labour: 33% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 21% (no change)
Conservatives: 19% (no change)
UKIP: 15% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (+2)
Others: 3% (no change)
Labour: 29% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 22% (+2)
Conservatives: 19 (-1)
UKIP: 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (+3)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Others: 4% (+1)
With the other Parties either remaining the same or gaining votes Labour are a good 4% down on the Regional lists 
This reflects Labour Dominance in the Constituencies in Wales and somewhat vindicates the very idea of the Top up system 

Labour: 28 seats (26 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (7 constituency seats + 6 list seats)
Conservatives: 10 seats (5 constituency seats + 5 list seats)
UKIP: 7 seats (7 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats)
There appears to be some indication that the Lib Dems calls for a second vote transfer to stop Ukip in the Regional vote.

Plaid  are also is buoyed by the findings. Particularly with the Leaders Popularity pol putting Leanne Wood streets ahead  .

Rhun ap  Iorwerth, said:

“This is an encouraging poll for Plaid Cymru and shows that we have momentum going into the final days of the campaign. We are delighted that the warmth, respect and affection we’re experiencing for Leanne Wood on the doorstep is reflected in this poll, which gives her a clear lead as the most popular party leader in Wale

Is Plaid on a a small surge ? I am not sure but a result mirroring   the latest may well not see any challenge to Leanne's leadership .

It may well be that the apart for themselves the only Party  that may be happy to see Ukip win seats is Labour.

With no overall Majority they may well think that they can run Wales on their own as the opposition parties particularly  Plaid and the Lib Dems are unlikely  to be keen to be voting with Ukip.

It may well be governance  by division of your opponents.

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