Wednesday, 13 April 2016

The first Problem the next Assembly will face, wil be finding a Llywydd

I was going to Blog on the latest Welsh Barometer Poll Yesterday and was just about to complete writing it when I was suddenly faces with a blank screen and didn't have the heart to repeat it.

Anyway you can see  Roger Scully number crunching here

Basically there has been no major moves amongst the parties with Labour getting a Boost from the Steel crisis and Ukip recovering lost ground.

So we may see an Assembly made up something lile this

Labour: 28 seats (26 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 12 seats (7 constituency seats + 5 list seats)
Conservatives: 10 seats (5 constituency seats + 5 list seats)
UKIP: 8 seats (8 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats)

Which leads me to the question who will be the next  Presiding Officer : Llywydd

He or she is the Speaker of the National Assembly for Wales, elected by the Members of the National Assembly for Wales to chair their meetings (plenary sessions); to maintain order; and to protect the rights of Members.
He or she also heads the Corporate Body (known as the Assembly Commission) of the National Assembly for Wales and as such is viewed as a figurehead for the entire organisation. One Deputy Presiding Officer is elected to help fulfil the role. The office of the Presiding Officer is based in Tŷ Hywel and is also responsible for the Pierhead Building in Cardiff Bay.

The current Llywydd of the Fourth Assembly  (which is the address most AM use) is Labour's Rosemary Butler who is retiring and Plaid's Dafydd Elis Thomas had served in the post for the firsts  three Assemblies.

The natural assumption is that its the Tories turn to provide the Llwydd for the Fifth Assembly and David Melding  is currently Deputy and would be a natural for the post  .
But he is second on the Assembly list for South Wales Central and may fail to win though the current prediction is favourable,
But with the position of the Leader of the Opposition title so close  neither Plaid or the Tories will be willing to Sacrifice one of thier number to the posts. 
The Lib Dems  are unlikely  with their  decreased numbers to provide the Llwydd  or the Deputy.
Labour short of an overall majority will be reluctant to reduce thier numbers.
It would take some imagination to see one of the Ukip numbers being  made Llwydd , though maybe deputy might be given to one of the saner members.
Even a coalition would not solve the problem because the Llywydd would probably have to be in the Chair before negotiations are complete.
So it will be interesting time. Will Dafydd El break ranks to get his old exalted position back?

We will see, but the first session of the Fifth Assembly may prove more interesting than we expect,

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