Wednesday, 24 April 2019

Two recall petitions , set to force by elections labour and Tories may not want.

An MP convicted of a false expenses claim has been ordered to complete 50 hours unpaid work and fined £1,500 , the BBC report.
Conservative MP for Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies pleaded guilty to providing false or misleading information for allowances claims and attempting to do so in March.
Davies, 51, made an "unreserved apology" following his sentencing at Southwark Crown Court on Tuesday.
He now faces a recall petition amid calls for his resignation.
Davies must complete the community order within 12 months and was also ordered to pay £2,500 in costs.
Tom Forster QC, defending, said it was likely Mr Davies's career was in "tatters"
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have called for him to resign, but in a statement Davies said he wanted to "move on and continue" his role as an MP.
"I would like to reiterate that I made a mistake and at no point did I at any time try to make any financial gain."The Conservatives said Mr Davies has been given "formal warning" from the chief whip Julian Smith. "I have accepted today's ruling and want to take this opportunity to make an unreserved apology," .
Though  The Conservatives seem less than supportive and  said Mr Davies has been given "formal warning" from the chief whip Julian Smith.
A party spokesman said 
"it is right that the people of Brecon and Radnorshire now get to have their say about whether they still support Mr Davies".


The Wasting Mule reports that

Philip Stott, prosecuting, revealed Mr Davies found in February 2016 that only £476.02 was left in the Start Up Costs Budget, with £8,303.75 remaining in the other.
He then proceeded to create two fake invoices, so the £700 cost could be split between the two budgets - £450 to the Start Up and £250 for the other.
Mr Justice Edis said: 
"There was no error here.
"What you did was done quite deliberately and it must have taken you some time to create your fake documents. You created two, after all.
"You presented them at different times to suggest that there were two transactions, and attached a post it note to the second to this effect, thus trying to deceive your own staff.
"The chief aggravating feature is, of course, the breach of trust which is involved. Members of Parliament ask the public to place their trust in them and on election that is what happens. They become the guardians of the nation's democracy which depends on the public holding them in high esteem.
"It remains shocking that, when confronted with a simple accounting problem, you thought that the thing to do was to forge documents. That is an extraordinary thing for a person in your position, and with your background, to do."
However, he said he accepted this case was "quite different category from the cases which came to light nearly 10 years ago where much larger sums of money were involved".
Defending, Thomas Forster QC said his client - a 51-year-old father of two school-age children - was in a "privileged position" as an MP, but that his offending was a mistake rather than a "return to the bad old days" of "maxing out expenses accounts".
If Mr Davies were employed outside Parliament , he probably have not faced prosecution  for "fiddling his expenses" , but would have been immediately sacked.

This was not a mistake but a deliberate attempt to deceive and he should resign immediately.


Instead he carries on voting Davies is a lifelong Eurosceptic and a member of the European Research Group. has a influence on Brexit negotiations.



Fiona Oluyinka Onasanya who was elected as the Labour Member of Parliament (MP) for Peterborough in 2017 also carries on voting despite the fact that On 19 December 2018, following a re-trial, Onasanya was found guilty of perverting the course of justice, for  for lying to police to avoid being prosecuted for speeding. She unsuccessfully sought to secure permission to appeal the conviction. Her expulsion from the Labour Party, effective in December 2018, was announced in January 2019.]On 29 January 2019, she was sentenced to three months in prison, becoming the first sitting female Member of Parliament in the United Kingdom to be jailed.
The Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow duly informed the House that he gave notice that the opening of a recall petition against her may be organised; if more than 10% of the Peterborough electorate were to sign such a petition within six weeks, then her seat in the House of Commons will become forfeit and a by-election will be triggered,] though she would be free to stand in the resulting by-election. The recall petition was called on 19 March 2019 and is available for signature until 1 May 2019. 

Elections in the 2010s[edit]

General Election 2017: Peterborough[73]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourFiona Onasanya22,95048.1+12.5
ConservativeStewart Jackson22,34346.8+7.1
Liberal DemocratBeki Sellick1,5973.3−0.4
GreenFiona Radić8481.8-0.8
Majority6071.3
Turnout47,73867.5+2.6
Labour gain from ConservativeSwing+2.7
Mr Davies faces such a recall Position, in which the Liberal Democrats  will have high hopes.

General Election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire[8]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
ConservativeChristopher Davies20,08148.6+7.5
Liberal DemocratJames Gibson-Watt12,04329.1+0.8
LabourDan Lodge7,33517.7+3.0
Plaid CymruKate Heneghan1,2993.1-1.3
UKIPPeter Gilbert5761.4-6.9
Majority8,03819.5+6.7
Turnout41,33476.9+3.1
Registered electors56,010
Conservative holdSwing+3.4


It will be interesting to the ballot boxes for each of these constituencies  as the  seats european Election count proceeds and whether  we can see the breakdown in them.
But we are likely to see two Byelections  sooner than later which could see the Tories gain one and lose another.


Tuesday, 23 April 2019

Tories may be unusually happy with poor opinion polls.


It may seem odd, but I suspect there are a number of Tory MPs looking  at the latest Opinion polls and smiling to themselves



Mike Smithson over at  at political betting writes 

"To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mess as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later.
Although the polls in the table above are strictly about the next general election they probably give a good pointer to fact that it is going to be a struggle for the blue team especially as we’re getting all these reports of significant part of the Conservative General Election vote from last time now saying that it will be voting for Farage brexit party.
There is little doubt that the locals will see the Tories losing a lot of council seats and the interesting question is which party will be the big gainer. ChangeUK has hardly put up any candidates and Lib Dems and Greens are working hard, sometimes quite closely together, and that could prove very promising for them.
Whether the parliamentary Conservative Party is able to change the rules to allow a further challenge to Theresa May is hard to say. But there’s little doubt that if her party has big losses on May 2nd then that will make it extremely difficult for her. The real surprise, of course, was that Tory MPs allowed her to carry on in the June 2017 after TMay into an unnecessary General Election with a majority and ended up without
a majority. She’s really been on borrowed time since then".

But those Tories seeking to replace Prime Minister May and hasten Brexit , will not be worried with the loss of hundreds of English council seats and a poor showing in the forthcoming European elections.


Looking at the threat to their vote , they will (probably) rightly assume that if we leave the European Union before a General Election, then Farage's Brexit  Part y's support will wither away, and the majority of the 14%  for the Brexit Part and 5% for Ukip will transfer to them giving them a comfortable majority.

What will also satisfy them is the low position of CHUK-TIG, who have not as some suspected rocked the boat and who seem to be damaging Labour more than them .

What may wipe the smile of their faces however  is if Remain parties (SNP, Plaid, CHUK+TIG, Greens and Lob Dems all have a good showing in the European Elections.

Of course this does not depend on the size of the Remain vote, but the number of candidate elected.

That is why it is vital to vote SNP and Plaid in Scotland and LIb Dem, Green (CHUK+TIG?) in England .

Sending a message to both Tory and Labour Leavers that , you can expect  a return of Brexit-Ukip voters , after we leave the EU, but a large number may have well moved on,  will be looking for a different UK politics and a move to closer relations to Europe post Brexit, than what we exit with.

Monday, 22 April 2019

Labour Unionist provokes criticism over Tweet and then complains .

It was only a matter of time before Unionist, reacted against the recreation of the ’Cofiwch Dryweryn monument throughout Wales and Labour AM Hefin David was one of the first.


Can’t help thinking that graffitiing ‘Cofiwch Dryweryn’ on public land devalues the original monument and is about as cool as drawing Che Guevara on your wheelie bin

Well especially for you Hefin.


For some reason he then expressed surprise , that people expressed  their disagreement , with  him



My view that the current wave of graffiti is carried out frivolously and not in the same spirit of struggle as the original, has been met with the expected wave of tolerance and studied debate.

To be fair some of the comments were harsh and he has provided us with some 










































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