Peterborough by-election Brexit limited company come up short.

In some ways the Conservatives may not be to distressed about , their third place in the Peterborough byelection.


When it was obvious that  after  the Labour MP Fiona Onasanya  had bee n convicted and imprisoned  after being charged with perverting the course of justice in relation to two speeding incidents which occurred in 2017 it looked like in what was a Labour- Tory  marginal any byelection would be a two horse race.

Then out of  nowhere a well financed and organised Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage appeared and put the two main parties to the sword.

The recall petition was called on 19 March and was available for signature until 1 May 2019.^[]On the day prior to the recall petition being called, Onasanya released a video protesting her innocence.

On 1 May it was announced that the recall petition had exceeded the necessary threshold of being signed by 10% of electors in her seat: 19,261 electors, or 27.6%, had signed the petition. As a result, her seat was declared vacant, causing a by-election in Peterborough.

Still under normal condition  it may well have been only the Liberal Democrats ewho could provide a shock.

General Election 2017: Peterborough^[77]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Fiona Onasanya	22,950	48.1	+12.5
	Conservative	Stewart Jackson	22,343	46.8	+7.1
	Liberal Democrat	Beki Sellick	1,597	3.3	−0.4
	Green	Fiona Radić	848	1.8	-0.8
Majority			607	1.3
Turnout			47,738	67.5	+2.6
	Labour gain from Conservative 480		Swing	+2.7

Still on a turnout of 48.04%  Farage's limited company masquerading as tge Brexit Part almost provided a shock

General Election 2015: Peterborough^[78]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Stewart Jackson	18,684	39.7	-0.7
	Labour	Lisa Forbes	16,759	35.6	+6.1
	UKIP	Mary Herdman	7,485	15.9	+9.2
	Liberal Democrat	Darren Fower	1,774	3.8	-15.9
	Green	Darren Bisby-Boyd	1,218	2.6	+1.4
	Liberal	Chris Ash	639	1.4	N/A
	Independent	John Fox	516	1.1	N/A
Majority			1,925	4.1	-6.7
Turnout			47,075	64.9	+1.0
	Conservative hold		Swing	-3.4

Still on a smaller turnout  of

2019 by-election: Peterborough^[76]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Lisa Forbes	10,484	31	-17
	Brexit	Mike Greene	9,801	29	+29
	Conservative	Paul Bristow	7,243	21	-25
	Liberal Democrat	Beki Sellick	4,159	12	+9
	Green	Joseph Wells	1,035	3	+1
	UKIP	John Whitby	400	1	+1
	Christian Peoples	Tom Rogers	162
	English Democrat	Stephen Goldspink	153
	SDP	Patrick O'Flynn	135
	Monster Raving Loony	Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope	112
	No description	Andrew Moore	101
	Common Good	Dick Rodgers	60
	Renew	Peter Ward	45
	UK EU	Pierre Kirk	25
	No description	Bobby Smith	5
Majority			683
Turnout				48.4
	Labour hold		Swing

Clearly it was the Conservatives  who were the big losers but they will probably argue that a vote for the Brexit Party will lead to a Corbyn government so expect them to spon this.

What was unusual was that the Liberal Democrats were not entirely squeezed and saq a 9% increase in their vote and they and the Greens actually saw an increase in the number of votes.

What this means for UK politics is unclear, bur foe Wales and Scotland  if you don't want  to be run by a Xenophobic English Nationalism of a Tory-Brexit Party in Westminster , then especially those who voted for Remain parties in the Euro Elections  must ironically think about leaving another Union.

Private David Raymond Morris of the 2nd Battalion South Wales Borderers

I find it hard to refer to today as D Day  "Celebrations " as so many young me lost their lives .

Amongst those who took part was Private David Raymond Morris of the 2nd Battalion South Wales Borderers landed at Gold beach Normandy on D - Day. My dad, He was just 20 years old.



He's on the left in glasses in the above photograph

Having spent much of the war in the Orkneys (Or Bloody Orkney as it was known.)  He was in the I believe second wave  and three weeks later his war was over as he was hit in the face by shrapnel  from a mine.

For this he received substantial facial reconstruction from a pioneering doctor and was left with a silver plate in his head and the occasional tendency to blackout when under stress.

Nearly 60 years later is wounds contributed to his death.

He vary rarely spoke about his experiences and it was only later in life he sent for his medals and when I see the "Royal" festooned  with them it makes me angry he had just three.

Today I remember Dad and also all those who took part in the liberation of Europe.

Indeed I think it is highly poignant that amongst those dignitaries  yesterday was German Chancellor Angela Merkel,

She called it a  a "gift of history" that she is able to participate in the ceremony on the southern coast of England commemorating the 75th anniversary .

As we remember those who took part in the Liberation of Europe  75 years  it is important that we were liberating the Germans themselves from the Nazi regime.

Many Germans today even those who like me had a relative on the side of those Dad was fighting  see D Day as the start of the end of a Fascist Regime that had corrupted their country .

75 years ago Private David Raymond Morris, was part of the Liberation of Europe and even though I am a Pacifist , it is something I am Proud of.

Welsh Labour Government fail to start another project.

At the centre o Charles Dickens's  Bleak House is a long-running legal case in the Court of Chancery, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, which came about because a testator wrote several conflicting wills. In a preface to the 1853 first edition, Dickens claimed there were many actual precedents for his fictional case.


The point being that there by the time final judgement all the money has been eaten up by legal fees.


So the M4 Relief Road , joins the long list of projects including the Circuit of Wales and Swansea Lagoon  that after much fanfare, never come to fruition.

I have to be honest here I've always had doubts  whether  by the viability or that they were the tight choice of all projects.


But the failure of the Welsh Government  and Westminster to even really start  let alone complete  any major project in Wales does  lead many to consider what is the point of devolution, if it does exactly as Westminster has done and fails to deliver  in the above manner. 

As Owen Donevan reports on Nation Cymru and Senedd Home 

The latest attempt to build a Newport bypass has failed after the First Minister announced this afternoon that the Welsh Government won’t give it the go ahead.
The First Minister’s written decision is available here (pdf) alongside the inspector’s report (pdf).
There are obvious environmental concerns, which the First Minister said he placed greater weight on than the Planning Inspector.
However, the primary reason the project has been rejected is that the Cabinet decided on April 29th 2019 that the Welsh capital budget doesn’t go far enough to cover the projected costs (estimated at anything between £1.3-1.7billion) and could have lead to lengthy delays in starting construction and associated problems with compulsory purchase order
The First Minister acknowledged there was a consensus that issues in and around Newport need to be addressed and (as the Welsh solution to a problem is to form a committee) a Commission of transport experts will look at alternative solutions in detail.
In the meantime, a number of measures will be introduced to improve traffic flow around Newport including faster vehicle recovery, extra traffic officer patrols, live journey time information and a public information campaign to change driver behaviour.
Sold a pup?Leader of the Opposition, Paul Davies AM (Con, Preseli Pembs.), said £31million was being lost to the Welsh economy every year because of the Newport M4 and – while the problem should’ve been dealt with decades ago – successive Labour governments have failed since despite £44million being spent on it.

“First Minister, you are saying that this project is now not affordable. However, last year (as Finance Minister) you wrote to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury…. asking for more money…. In this letter, you clearly thought this scheme was achievable, because….you said: ‘I will be seeking an increase in the Welsh Government’s annual and aggregate borrowing limits….. in order that we can deliver our investment priorities for Wales, including the M4 project’.”

– Leader of the Opposition, Paul Davies AMHe suggested a number of pledges have been broken, including a 2016 Labour manifesto commitment to deliver the bypass, a pledge for a binding vote amongst AMs and pledges made during Labour’s Newport West by-election campaign.
Shadow Economy Minister, Russell George AM (Con, Montgomery), accused the Welsh Government of using the Commission to “go back to square one” when the inquiry has already examined all the alternatives in great detail.
Mohammad Asghar AM (Con, South Wales East) described it as a sad day for those who want barriers to economic growth removed, haulage companies, commuters, tourists and anyone benefiting from the removal of Severn Crossing tolls. Nick Ramsay AM (Con, Monmouth) asked what would happen to land purchased as part of pre-construction work – to which the First Minister said it was now a Welsh Government asset.
Disappointment on the Labour benches.Jayne Bryant AM (Lab, Newport West) described the decision as a “bitter blow” that would condemn Newport to congestion, idle traffic and air pollution. Improving public transport in Newport wouldn’t work as only 6% of M4 traffic would be removed, while accidents force more traffic through the city itself. Any money saved from this decision had to be spent in the Newport area.
Praise the repentant sinnerAlthough critical of the length of time taken to reach this point, Plaid Cymru backed the decision:

“I think the proper response in the first instance is to praise the repentant for seeing the error of their ways. ….We repeatedly said….that the black route was both environmentally destructive and financially unjustifiable. I think both points have borne out in the statement….It’s financially unjustifiable because, as the First Minister said, it would have siphoned such a large proportion of the limited borrowing powers that we have, and of the overstretched capital funds available to the Welsh Government.”

– Adam Price AM (Plaid, Carms. E. & Dinefwr)John Griffiths AM (Lab, Newport East) agreed with the decision. The recently-declared climate emergency and the importance of the Gwent Levels requires new thinking. Nonetheless, he repeated Jayne Bryant’s call for the earmarked budget to be spent solving transport issues around Newport.
Meanwhile, Alun Davies AM (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) would prefer to see it spent on economic development across Gwent, while Jack Sargeant AM (Lab, Alyn & Deeside) made the case for it to be spent on a range of projects around the country.
 

The Welsh Government now falls back on the old Welsh habit of setting up a commission , which may  come up with a new project which may come up with an alternative transport  policy which may be taken up by the Welsh Labour Government  run for a while prove to be "financially unjustifiable ". scrapped and another commission set up to come up with yet another plan.

So in a manner like Bleak House by the time the Welsh Labour government  do finally a start a project , much of the funds have been spent on analysing previous scrapped projects.

George Galloway's "Anti-Semitism" Tweet and links to Brexit Party should be raised.

As the row over Anti-Semitism  in the Labour Party goes on, it is interesting that the Media seem reluctant to link the news that George Galloway sacked by Talk Radio  over allegedly a anti-Semitic tweet and his links with Nigel Farage's Brexit Party.

Mr Galloway had  said he was the “best placed candidate” to replace the disgraced Fiona Onasanya, who became the first MP to be booted out by her constituents  following her prison sentence for lying about a speeding ticket.

Making his pitch to be the Brexit Party candidate, he tweeted: “If elected, my first priority will be to help secure the full implementation of the Brexit decision made overwhelmingly by the people there in 2016.”

However Mr Galloway's latest headlines may even see him shunned by his new pals in the Brexit Pary.

The former MP posted on the social media site after the Champions League final between Liverpool and Tottenham on Saturday night.
He praised Liverpool's win, before adding: "No #Israël flags on the Cup!" - appearing to reference Tottenham's strong links with the Jewish community.
On Monday, the radio station said it had terminated his weekly show.
Mr Galloway hit back at his former employer, tweeting: "See you in Court guys."The original tweet from Mr Galloway on Saturday night saw the former Labour and Respect MP face a backlash on Twitter.

Image Copyright @georgegalloway

@GEORGEGALLOWAY

He defended the comment, claiming a number of Tottenham fans were flying the flag of Israel in the crowd and it showed an affiliation to a "racist state".

But he was accused of being racist himself, including by Tottenham itself.
In a statement, the club said: "It's astounding in this day and age to read such blatant anti-Semitism published on a social platform by someone who is still afforded air time on a radio station on which he has previously broken broadcast impartiality rules."
On Monday morning, talkRADIO said it had cancelled Mr Galloway's show, adding: "As a fair and balanced news provider, talkRADIO does not tolerate anti-Semitic views."

There  is much debate within  the Labour Party over Anti-Semitism , Some of it exaggerated for political purposes and a difficulty in separating criticism  of the State of Israel over its appalling treatment of the Palestinians  and actual anti-semitism.

Mr Galoway however appears to have clearly crossed the line.

Maybe because The Brexit Party does not have a membership in the way all other parties have  and is more of a limited company, Nigel Farage will claim that this means that Mr Galloway is not a member and therefore  not be expelled.

But clearly the links between Galloway and Farage needs to be explored.

Plaid are swamped by UK polls and can't avoid it.

The  latest opinion polls have produced a result  polls have had three different parties in the lead

Pollster

Fieldwork

Voting intention

NET

Con

Lab

LDem

UKIP

Grn

ChUK

Brex

Opinium

30 May 19

Brex +4

17

22

16

1

11

1

26

YouGov

29 May 19

LDem +2

19

19

24

1

8

1

22

Survation

22 May 19

Lab +5

28

33

13

3

3

2

12

Sorry about the mess but its's the best I can do, to copy the data over. It's clearer here.

Clearly there is a Brexit Party, Liberal Democrat bounce and a opinion polling not seen since the 1980's when the SDP formed the SDP–Liberal Alliance with the Liberal Party in June 1981, under the joint leadership of Roy Jenkins (SDP) and Liberal leader David Steel. ^] During an era of public disillusionment with the two main parties – Labour and the Conservatives – and widescale unemployment, the Alliance achieved considerable success at parliamentary by-elections. At one point in late-1981, the party had an opinion poll rating of over 50%.

That of course didn't materialise , but the above table does show  a remarkable change in voting intentions.

With an average of about 2000 people sampled, the figures for both Plaid Cymru and the SNP are misleading

Population

England –  54 million, 

Scotland – Scotland i 5.47 million by 1st July of 2019

Wales – Wales  3.1 million. 

With Scotland having about the 10th of the English Population and Wales eben lower , the voting intentions of both are swamped by that of England.

Indeed the figures SNP 4% and Plaid 1% are so small they are often excluded

Though if 200 odd people were contacted in Scotland it would look like 40% for the SNP  (if you accepted such a small sample) and even Plaid could be on the 20% it obtained in last months Euro Elections.

Scotland to a large extent have broken the UK  polling model and do not seem to be influenced by polling as the "UK" polls as Wales does.

But there is a bit of Chicken and Egg thing and it is arguable that Opinion Polls can in themselves influence voting.

Hence the Liberal Democrats little Bar Charts and people being told the party they support can't win here.

With a very small Welsh Media the influence of the Unionist Parties spills over . Plaid managed to counter this last month but it will be harder to do so in the next General Election in the UK.

We can expect the Lib Dems to go back to thier old misleading ways.

It seems the Liberal Democrats are not only on the up but up to their old tricks.

First we have leadership contented Jo Swinson

Swinson used an appearance on the BBC's flagship political debate show to claim that just four per cent of children growing up in Govan were going on to university.
The MP for East Dunbartonshire, speaking on Question Time, pointed to the disparity in outcomes between young people growing up in more affluent suburbs in Scotland and poorer inner city areas.But education secretary John Swinney today accused Ms Swinson of aiming an "appalling insult to the pupils and staff at at schools in the Govan area who are achieving so much".Glasgow City Council’s director of education, Maureen McKenna, said the most recently available figures showed that 13 per cent of pupils leaving Govan High School went on to university, while 24 per cent went on to higher education.
Speaking on Question Time on Tursday, the Lib Dem leadership hopeful said:

“I represent a very middle class, affluent constituency and in one of the towns 80 per cent of young children go on to university.“Five or six miles down the road in Glasgow Govan it’s four per cent. Now that’s not because of tuition fees, because we don’t have them in Scotland, that’s because of the lack of investment, or aspiration of young people that don’t even grow up thinking that’s an option for them. That’s where we need to focus that early years intervention if we really want to tackle inequality. 

”Chris Stephens, SNP MP for the Glasgow South West constituency, which includes Govan, said:

“Jo Swinson must issue a full retraction for using fake figures to make false and patronising claims about children in Glasgow.“It’s no wonder that the Liberal Democrats have such a bad reputation for misleading people, when their deputy leader is willing to make bogus claims on national television to deflect from her own appalling record propping up the Tories in government.”

You can argue about the numbers but it seems Ms Swinsons are way off


We also have Peter Black  trying desperately to rewrite History

On the other side of Offa's Dyke, the outgoing Prime Minister has called on her successor to cut tuition fees and reintroduce student grants to assist young people study for their degree and cut the amount of debt they face on graduation. If only she had concentrated on measures like this when she had the opportunity.
This is especially so as Wales has already led the way with this reform, under a Welsh Liberal Democrats Education Minister. As is made clear here, Wales is now the only country in Europe to introduce equivalent maintenance support across full-time and part-time undergraduates, as well as postgraduates. It includes a means-tested maintenance grant to pay for living costs such as food, books and rent. This has resulted in a huge boost in students applying.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats have long argued that living costs are the biggest barrier to people studying at university. That is why, in government, Kirsty Williams has introduced a new package that ensures students receive the equivalent of the National Living Wage in grants and loans while they study.
The impact of this important reform is evidenced by the BBC, who report today that early figures from the Student Loans Company show a 35% rise in the number of students given financial support to study part-time this year. That increase reverses the trend over the last ten years of 45% drop in part-time undergraduates in Wales.

We all know who that the Liberal Democrats  record on Tuition Fees As part of the coalition agreement the Lib Dems abandoned their pledge to oppose any increase in tuition fees but gained permission to abstain on any vote relating to the increase of tuition fees.

Following devolution in 1999, the newly devolved governments in Scotland and Wales brought in their own acts on tuition fees. The Scottish Parliament established, and later abolished a graduate endowment to replace the fees. Wales introduced maintenance grants of up to £1,500 in 2002, a value which has since risen to over £5000.

In England, tuition fee caps rose with the Higher Education Act 2004. Under the Act, universities in England could begin to charge variable fees of up to £3,000 a year for students enrolling on courses as from the academic year of 2006–07 or later. This was also introduced in Northern Ireland in 2006–07 and introduced in Wales in 2007–08. In 2009–10 the cap rose to £3,225 a year to take account of inflation.^[ Following the Browne Review in 2010, the cap was controversially raised to £9,000 a year, sparking large student protests in London.Scotland

Tuition is handled by the Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS), which does not charge fees to what it defines as "Young Students". Young Students are defined as those under 25, without children, marriage, civil partnership or cohabiting partner, who have not been outside of full-time education for more than three years. Fees exist for those outside the young student definition, typically from £1,200 to £1,800 for undergraduate courses, dependent on year of application and type of qualification. Postgraduate fees can be up to £3,400.^[35]

The system has been in place since 2007 when graduate endowments were abolished. Labour's education spokesperson Rhona Brankin criticised the Scottish system for failing to address student poverty. Scotland has fewer disadvantaged students than England, Wales or Northern Ireland and disadvantaged students receive around £560 a year less in financial support than their counterparts in England do.

Wales

Like their English counterparts, Welsh universities are able to charge up to £9,250 a year in tuition fees. However, Welsh students can apply for fee grants of up to £5,190, in addition to a £3,810 loan to cover these costs.^[38] This system also applies to Welsh students who study elsewhere in the United Kingdom.

If Peter Black spin is correct then it is most welcome though the reality may be somewhat different, but maybe  their sole Liberal Democrat in the Welsh Assembly and a minister in not a coalition Labour Government  actually deserves some credit  in what  has been a rather lacklustre performance from the former  La Pasionaria  that is Kirsty Williams.

But as the Lib Dems continue with a revival we can expect the likes pf Peter Black to claim that they are transforming Wales through their sole minister.

Personally I think we should take every claim they make with a pinch of salt.

Peers treat House of Lords like a "Gentleman's Club.

There are a number of apocrypha, stories , that a Welsh Labour MP  was only once recorded in Hansard over a number of years and that was to request that a window be opened.

It was certainly said about a Pontypridd MP Arthur Pearson , but he was a Labour whip and therefore did not take part in debates.

We do know however that a  Welsh peer claimed £50,000 without speaking in the House of Lords for 12 months.

According to the Western Mail

David Brookman, 82, was educated in Mommouthshire and was a steel worker in Ebbw Vale in the 1950's.

Lord Brookman attended the House of Lords on 157 days last year. At no point did he speak or serve on a committee. He did regularly vote during that time.

Part of the of the role of the House of Lords is to scrutinise bills coming from the House of Commons.

The figures come from a Guardian investigation which found the following over a 12-month period:

• 88 peers – about one in nine - never spoke, held a government post or participated in a committee at all
• 46 peers did not register a single vote, including on Brexit, sit on a committee or hold a post. One peer claimed £25,000 without voting, while another claimed £41,000 but only voted once
• More than 270 peers claimed more than £40,000 in allowances, with two claiming more than £70,000

Lord Brookman did not speak or ask questions during those 12 months. According to the House of Lords website , he spoke three times on April 30, 2019 about the steel industry and again on May 22 this year.

However before this he had not spoken in the House of Lords since July 3, 2017.

He also claimed £50,000 in expenses during this same period.

The figures have drawn strong criticism of the institution which is entirely unelected with 92 peers still chosen on a hereditary basis.

Many campaigners are calling for an entirely elected second chamber.

Willie Sullivan, senior director at the Electoral Reform Society said: “This is a rolling scandal in the Lords that shows no signs of ending.

"Only two years since we unearthed similar findings of gross abuse and inaction while claiming, many unelected Lords are still treating our Parliament as a taxpayer-funded private members’ club.
“While many peers work hard, this system is ripe for abuse and some continue to use their positions to freeload on the public purse. Without the light of democratic scrutiny, peers can take advantage of the situation with impunity.
"At a time of huge national debates – from Brexit to climate change and social care – it beggars belief that so many are claiming large amounts while apparently failing to contribute. Yet voters have no way of kicking them out."
He added: "We urgently need to move to a fairly-elected second chamber where voters are guaranteed proper scrutiny, and key votes are not left at the whim of whoever can be bothered to show up."

When approached for comment by WalesOnline, a House of Lords spokesman said: “Members of the house are not salaried but may claim a daily allowance on days they attend the House in order to support them in their parliamentary work. Members are responsible for ensuring that claims they make are in accordance with the rules contained in the code of conduct.
If no parliamentary work is undertaken, no money should be claimed. The large majority of members take these duties seriously and undertake them with diligence.
“Members of the House of Lords are not full-time politicians, but they do bring a wealth of experience and expertise from outside Parliament. As with MPs, not all the work that members undertake is visible - much of it is done behind the scenes, researching issues and meeting campaigners and members of the public.
"For those whose external commitments elsewhere mean they cannot contribute as active members, a leave of absence is an appropriate way to take a break from the House and temporarily give up their right to take part in debates or claim any financial support.
“The House has itself recognised that it is currently too large, agreeing unanimously to endorse the report of the Lord Speaker’s Committee that recommended reducing the size of the House to a maximum of 600 members. Progress to reduce the size of the House has currently been maintained without legislation.” 

Lord Brookman declined approaches for comment.

It seems far to many Peers look at the House of Lords as a "Gentleman's Club"similar  to the

Garrick Club or Brooks's, where they can pop in use its facilities in this case subsidised by the taxpayer and get payed for it.

Its time to reform the Second Chamber hook line and sinker and replace it with an elected body where everyone actually woks as a legislature  and not a retirement bonus.