Wednesday, 24 September 2014

Support for Welsh Independence on 3%! Am I really in such a minority?

I must admit I find it very curious  but the Wasting Mule gleefully claims that "Support for Welsh independence has fallen to its lowest recorded level in the wake of the Scottish referendum, according to a new poll for BBC Wales.
The survey, carried out for tonight’s Week in Week Out programme after Scotland voted No to independence, found just 3% wanted Wales to be independent. The programme explores what the new political and economic landscape might mean for people in Wales and asks who will be making the decisions that impact Wales.
The BBC own website is somewhat sparse on information only giving . Westminster voting intentions

Maybe it will be published on their website after the programme  but its hard to make a judgement  without all the details.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,006 Welsh adults aged 18 or over by telephone on 19-22nd September 2014. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.


Graph

There was strangely only a small drop in support for Plaid .

Ironically it is Labour who seem to be  suffering from a rise in Ukip support.

There was strong support for the idea of more powers being devolved to the Welsh Government, with 49% backing this option. Only 12% wanted to see the Assembly abolished. (but there was no accompanying Table).
Last week’s No vote in Scotland has led to serious debate about the future of the UK constitution and of the relationship between the separate governments.
Professor Roger Scully, of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, said:

Support for independence is the lowest I’ve seen anywhere. There has been a clear move towards supporting more powers, and some of the people who may have said ‘independence’ have gone in that direction.
“We’re getting close to a majority saying they want things to go further. There are also pretty low levels of support for abolition of the Assembly – the extreme positions are losing out.”
An analysis of the voting intention figures by Prof Scully suggests that, on a uniform swing, Labour would gain two seats in the capital – Cardiff North and Cardiff Central – at next May’s election. The Conservatives would lose Cardiff North but gain Brecon and Radnor from the Lib Dems; Plaid Cymru would retain their three seats but the Liberal Democrats would be reduced to a solitary Welsh seat at Westminster – Ceredigion. 
Though I suspect Plaid in Cerdigion and Ynys Mon may have hopes of winning there.

Maybe its a rogue poll as I said I find it very curious  especially 3% for Independence .
I imagine Professor Scully  has more details than us ordinary mortals but it would be nice if we had them as well

5 comments:

  1. Well a poll a week ago gave support for independence at 17% so I suspect this is a rogue

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  2. The poll was taken straight after the No vote in the Indy ref in Scotland.

    I think the 3% is simply people being asked straight after a No vote if they wanted Indy. Basically even many pro-indy people would think, well independence is off the agenda for a generation there's no point supporting that option now.

    I'm guessing, you'd have had a drop in support for indy in Scotland too straight after the poll, although, by now with things moving so quickly there, it may have gone back up.

    I think there would be broad support for Plaid's Home Rule document published yesterday (but difficult to find on website!!) http://www.partyofwales.org/uploads/policies/Bring_our_Government_Home.pdf


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  3. Unsurprisingly the BBC and Western Mail forgot to say the 3% was from a multiple choice list that included more powers which 49% choose and they also forgot to say support for the Assembly to be abolished was also at it lowest at 12%.

    BBC Wales and the Western Mail went for cheap headlines rather than engage in proper journalism, but is anyone surprised after the shamefully biased way they reported the Scottish referendum?

    Also the hysterical OTT reaction from Unionists in Wales to the poll says as much about them than it does about the Welsh appetite or lack of it for independence right now.

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  4. There is a real point which is that you can't go for independence tomorrow. You have to build up devolution first. The 3% is for independence tomorrow, without more powers first. That's why it's such a difference to the 17% that was in another poll.

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  5. Thanks for the comments and to DAILY WALES who indicate Professor Scully feels the BBC have misinterpreted his analysis,

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