Monday, 29 September 2014

Lib Dems set to lose Cardiff Central in 2015.

I could only find one Welsh seat  in Lord Ashcrofts poll of Marginal seats  but it is  an interesting one nevertheless

Cardiff Central is probably the  only seat in Wales that could be described  as a three way marginal At the last election> Jenny Willot held the seat for that she gained from Labour in 2005
General Election 2010: Cardiff Central[3][4]
Liberal DemocratJenny Willott14,97641.4−8.4
LabourJenny Rathbone10,40028.8−5.5
ConservativeKaren Robson7,79921.6+12.3
Plaid CymruChris Williams1,2463.4-0.1
UKIPSue Davies7652.1+1.1
GreenSam Coates5751.6+1.6
TUSCRoss Saunders1620.4+0.4
Monster Raving LoonyMark Beech (A.K.A.- 'The Good Knight Sir NosDa')1420.4+0.4
IndependentAlun Mathias860.2+0.2
Liberal Democrat holdSwing−1.4

Now according to Lord Ashcroft she is likely to lose it

The poll  puts thr Parties on

Conservative 16%
Labour 29%
Lib Dem 12%
Ukip 8%
Plaid 6%
Green 6%

Maybe the rel int rest here is the spread of votes  at 6% Plaid and the Greens would have thier largest share (Paltry as it is) in the constituency). and the  8% for Ukip whilst much higher  than 2010 doesn't point to them making huge inroads into Wales.

Its unlikely that Plaid and Green voters will switch to the LIb Dems this time after the latter becomes Toxic when it became bag carriers to the Tories in the Coalition Government.

Of course things can sand  will change in the run up to the General Election .

In Cardiff Central the Lib Dems have had one of the most formidable Constituency organisation in the UK let  alone Wales but I suspect it will a uphill struggle this time.

Iindeedif this was reflected throughout Wales they could Welsh  lose all their Welsh seats  and even Mark Williams sitting on a comfortably Majority  must be nervous

General Election 2010: Ceredigion[16][17]
Liberal DemocratMark Williams19,13950.0+13.5
Plaid CymruPenri James10,81528.3-7.6
ConservativeLuke Evetts4,42111.6-0.8
LabourRichard Boudier2,2105.8-6.3
UKIPElwyn Williams9772.6N/A
GreenLeila Kiersch6961.8-0.5
Liberal Democrat holdSwing+10.6
Before that he has only a 219 majority and that might be more reflective of the reality there.

General Election 2005: Ceredigion
Liberal DemocratMark Williams13,13036.53+9.66
Plaid CymruSimon Thomas12,91135.92-2.35
ConservativeJohn Harrison4,45512.39-7.05
LabourAlun Davies4,33712.06-3.36
GreenDave Bradney8462.35
VeritasIain Sheldon2680.75
Liberal Democrat gain from Plaid CymruSwing+6.0

1 comment:

  1. Great post. Most interesting.