Friday, 5 September 2014

Are Ukip really a threat in the Valleys?

The Wasting Mule  claim that 
Two seats in the valleys have the largest numbers of potential Ukip supporters of all Labour-held seats according to two political researchers.
Authors of a book called ‘Revolt on the Right’ have described Rhondda, which has an 11,553 Labour majority, as the most Ukip leaning Labour-held seat while Blaenau Gwent, with a Labour majority of 10,516, comes second.
Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin studied the demographics of voters in seats across England and Wales and identified Ukip voters as those who feel they have been ‘left behind’ and older white working class many of whom left school at 16.
Labour and indeed Plaid  however will  probably not be thrown into a panic because the Mule then adds 


 But rather than assessing an immediate threat to Labour strong-holds their research reveals the potential for such seats to switch.

Indeed 
Rob Ford, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Manchester and co-author of Revolt on the Right, said Ukip weren’t “very likely to run strong campaigns in these seats for at least three elections.”
That's 15 years away if a weeks along time in poltics 15 years a lifetime.
The Ukip strategy revolves around targeting two or three seats where they have a serious chance of seeing an MP in May 2015 rather than building up support in seats over the longer term.
Still ther e an important lesson 
He said:

“In terms of the kind of voters that live in them these are seats that have an awful lot of white older voters who left school at 16.”Mr Ford said they made up the majority of Ukip’s support in contrast to voters from ethnic minorities, those with university educations who were economically secure and who had remained unconvinced by Ukip’s message.
At the European Parliament election in May, Ukip came second behind Labour in both Rhondda Cynon Taf - of which the Rhondda constituency forms a part - and Blaenau Gwent.

But Plaid have topped the Rhondda vote in past European elections and this has not transferred to challenging seat at a Westminster Lev
 l at least

Last May saw people turning to Ukip spurred on with a media onslaught including the BBC in a manner they would never consider for a left wing party.
There can be no doubt however that many working class people  are attracted to Ukip despite the fact they  are led by the same people who are little more than elitist Tories who think that part are not right wing enough

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The above  is somewhat misleading Mosely was also a ex Labour MP but  the initial concept is there

But there is a question can Labour or Plaid appeal to such dissatisfied voters without  stooping to  anti immigrant rhetoric.
Yes these people mainly vote Ukip because they have been let down by the main Parties who appear to offer nothing  to them  and when you consider that the main opposition party in Westminster Blue-Labour have abandoned them  for  the votes of Middle England where to al extent the future government is decided.
Ukip must be exposed as a party not only of the right but of the elite who think Magaret Thatcher did not go far enough 
The Scottish Independence referendum has shown that people can be galvanised  with claims that  support for independence in Scotland’s housing estates could secure a Yes victory in the referendum, .
Doorstep chats with more than 18,000 voters in 90 working-class communities across the country showed almost two-thirds of voters in favour of independence once the undecideds were stripped out.
The Radical Independence Campaign (RIC), which carried out the survey, said it was the largest public canvass sample in the referendum to date.

What we need is a similar movement to reconnect with people who have rejected main stream politics especially those who seem to be turning to a party who will never defend their true interest.

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