Wednesday, 18 September 2019

What Wales, needs is a new car not trying to fix the current botched job.

I am not sure how to react to Labour AM 's Mick Antoniw,  article in Nation Cymru on constitutional reform in Nation Cymru.

Is it a genuine realisation that "The Precious Union" is broken  or merely another Labour response, to a growing  rise in Independence calls  in Wales similar to that in Scotland where much is vaguely promised but nothing concrete  emerges.
Mr Antoniw writes


Eleven years ago I wrote an article for Tribune magazine, commenting on the Constitutional implications of devolution. I said we had ten years to sort out the dysfunction of the UK constitution and the English question or the UK risked breaking up.
The dysfunction remains and has become chronic. We are now facing constitutional meltdown. Brexit and the removal of the EU Constitutional umbrella expose the inherent fracture lines that have been increasing ever since 1999.
Since the Kilbrandon report in 1974 and until recently, there has been little detailed and comprehensive thought given by Parliament to the importance of the UK’s largely unwritten constitution.
Over the years, as devolved and decentralised government has progressed, the glaring lacuna in the rules and conventions that govern the relationship between the nations of the UK have largely been overlooked or disregarded.
All Governments and political parties have failed to recognise this growing crisis and have been oblivious to the potential consequences for the UK. On the one hand as the powers of the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament have begrudgingly been increased on an almost ad hoc basis, at the same time the inability of Westminster to recognise its own need for reform has become more acute.
The cataclysmic effect of Brexit has exposed this dysfunctionality. It is clear to most observers now that King Constitution has no clothes, or not many…
The writing has been on the wall for some time. During the Scottish independence referendum there was an opportunity to redefine the purpose of the UK; but in the absence of any credible answer to the question, “What is the purpose of the UK?” many Scots opted to vote for independence.
In Wales, where “independence” has had little support, the debacle in Westminster has resulted in many beginning to question our relationship with the UK.
Change, one way or another, is underway. Precisely what that change is, re
mains to be determined.
Yes as he states  the question has been asked not only before the Scottish Independence Referendum  and we have had some answers from the fringes of the Labour Party and whilst Tony Blair  may have delivered devolution , I always had the feeling that he never believed it and was merely carrying out what his predecessor as Labour Leader John Smith called "Unfinished Buisness".

He goes on
There is a need for a progressive analysis and solution. And we know from history that if we on the left do not provide that answer, those on the far right, the Tory Party and Brexit fanatics, will.
As a socialist, I am opposed to the ideology of nationalism. Socialism and nationalism as we know from history do not make happy bedfellows.
The problem is that the use of the terms “nationalism” and “independence” have often been ill-defined and abused by those using them. They have usually been used alongside flag-waving, populist speeches, romantic and historical mythology.
In reality, their use has increasingly been synonymised with separatism per se, with little reference as to the economic and social implications, particularly for ordinary working people.
Labour’s ideological position has traditionally been one that is class-based; self-determination and decentralisation of power, and the empowerment of people and communities,
as opposed to Plaid Cymru’s nation-based approach.

Well we can all read the  what he is indicating   by  "Socialism and nationalism as we know from history do not make happy bedfellows". but can he really argue this as a member of a "Socialist" (I know) Party  that  is by its very nature a British Nationalist Party.

He will of course regard this a slur on the Labour Party  but before he accuses others  of such Ideology he really should examine  the vet nature of the Unionism that   Labour  has promoted ever since it quietly ended the idea of Home Rule all round  it held before Irish Independence.

The immediate point I make is that there is a need for civilised and rational debate. There is a need for political parties on the centre and left to come together to work out a solution and a way forward.
Much work across all political parties and across UK parliaments has already taken place. There are a plethora of reports, documents from constitutional and legal committee analysis, nearly all of which says the current mechanism for inter-governmental relations within the UK is not fit for purpose.
The Joint Ministerial Committee does not work. It needs resources and mechanisms for dispute resolution. Brexit has broken the Sewell Convention. International trade agreements at UK level will drive a coach an horses through the devolution settlements and the proposed shared prosperity fund is likely to lead to a recalibration of centralised government in Westminster undermining the devolutions settlements.
Is it any wonder that people are questioning the future of the UK?
PrinciplesThese are dangerous times indeed. A populist break-up of the UK raises many questions:
  • Will we retain the pound?
  • How independent can Wales be while tied to a London based fiscal system?
  • For all its faults, do we really want to see a break up of the UK Welfare State?
  • What about the Welsh financial deficit? Current arrangements may not be satisfactory but there is still a £13 billion deficit to account for.
  • Do we really want to leave the UK and the system of wealth redistribution that exists? Walking away from this would drastically impoverish many of those who are already the poorest and most vulnerable in our society.
  • Is a decentralised or federalised UK constitutional structure the likely way forward?
It is clear to me that a UK wide constitutional convention is long overdue.
This means that everyone has to buy into radical constitutional reform of the UK, governmentally and financially, a redefining of the role and function of Westminster, clear constitutional rules with a common Supreme Court acting as a constitutional court to resolve disputes.
Clear principles must underpin the purpose of the UK and its function. Foreign affairs, defence, economic wellbeing, equality and redistribution of wealth.
And finally, a referendum for the whole of the UK on a nation by nation basis to either buy into a new revigorated UK or to go their own way.
The alternative, after years of Brexit chaos, is many more years chaos and confusion as the UK, year by year, disintegrates into yet deeper chaos and decline.
Its time to have this serious and open conversation. We cannot afford not to.

In reality  Mr Antoniw solution is like taking your car back to the same garage , time and time again and not getting it fixed.

There may be promises of a new solution , but  what Wales, needs is a new car , not having those who have constantly botched the job trying to fix the old one.

Tuesday, 17 September 2019

Should a Plaid/LibDem pact be based on results nearly 10 years ago?

Former Labour MP for Carmarthen Gwynoro Jones  has been trying to establish himself as a elder Welsh Statesman without much success .

However it is interesting to note is take on the allocation of seats in any Plaid/LibDem pact for the Election which is expected before the end of November.

He writes 

My parameters were the constituency results  for the General Election 2010, which was probably the last general election held in ‘ normal circumstances’. By that I mean the General Election 2015 was one where the Lib Dems were severely punished because of the coalition years. The 2017 General Election was heavily influenced by  Brexit and tactical voting hence it became a two horse race between the Tories and Labour. Then I looked at the Senedd Election results of 2016 and the recent  Euro elections.
There are a few seats in the tables below that could have been allocated differently. Of course   Ceredigion is taken out of the equation because, let’s face it hell would freeze over before either Welsh Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru would agree to stand down.

So Gwynoro  seems to be basing his tables on a Best LibDem result scenario in a election that was nearly ten years ago.



Take the situation of Merthyr and Rhymney  which he allocates to the LibDems and we see what nonsense this is

The LibDems did obtain a big swing  in 2010 with a candidate who seemed to have joined Plaid 


General election 2010: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney[14][15]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourDai Havard14,00743.7-16.8
Liberal DemocratAmy Kitcher9,95131.0+17.0
ConservativeMaria Hill2,4127.5-1.4
IndependentClive Tovey1,8455.8N/A
Plaid CymruGlyndwr Jones1,6215.1-4.9
BNPRichard Barnes1,1733.7N/A
UKIPAdam Brown8722.7+0.4
Socialist LabourAlan Cowdell1950.6-0.3
Majority4,05612.6-33.9
Turnout32,07658.6+3.2
Registered electors54,715
Labour holdSwing-16.9
However the following elections  saw the LibDem vote almost disappear  


General election 2017: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourGerald Jones[4]22,40766.8+12.9
ConservativePauline Jorgensen[5]6,07318.1+8.0
Plaid CymruAmy Kitcher [6]2,7408.2-1.3
UKIPDavid Rowlands[7]1,4844.4-14.2
Liberal DemocratBob Griffin [8]8412.5-1.6
Majority16,33448.7+13.5
Turnout33,54560.5+7.5
Registered electors55,463
Labour holdSwing+2.4


General election 2015: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney[9][10]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourGerald Jones[11]17,61953.9+10.2
UKIPDavid Rowlands[7]6,10618.7+15.9
ConservativeBill Rees3,29210.1+2.5
Plaid CymruRhayna Mann3,0999.5+4.4
Liberal DemocratBob Griffin[12]1,3514.1-26.9
GreenElspeth Parris[13]6031.8N/A
IndependentEddy Blanche4591.4N/A
CommunistRobert Griffiths1860.6N/A
Majority11,51335.2+22.6
Turnout32,71553.0-5.6
Registered electors61,716
Labour holdSwing-2.8

 The  2010 vote  seems to be  a protest some of it  seemingly  transferring to ProBrexit parties in the following election.

Indeed it many of the seats where the LibDems achieved  big  swings i or came close   2010 Swansea West, Newport East  ,Wrexham , Pontypridd, their vote has collapses

So if Plaid agree to a 50/50 seat  allocation based on anything like Gwynoro list then it will be a big mistake


I also had a difficulty in allocating seats to the Welsh Greens, as much as I agree with a great deal of what they stand for. Nevertheless, since there are seats that can be allocated either way – I have not included them in the tables below. 
They are

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Newport West - altho' was tempted to make WLDSwansea East
Vale of Clwyd
Possibly they could be four constituencies where the Greens could stand.
 Group 1

Welsh Liberal Democrats - 8
       Plaid Cymru - 10
Brecon and Radnor
Aberconwy
Cardiff Central
Caerphilly
Cardiff North
Cardiff West
Cardiff S E and Penarth
Carms East and Dinefwr
Clwyd South
Clwyd West
Merthyr and Rhymney 
Llanelli
Monmouth
Neath
Montgomery
Ynys Mon

Dwyfor Meirionydd

Arfon


Group 2

Welsh Liberal Democrats - 11
       Plaid Cymru - 6
Aberavon
Blaenau Gwent
Alun and Deeside
Cynon Valley
Bridgend
Islwyn
Newport East
Preseli
Swansea West
Rhondda
Torfaen
Ogmore
Vale of Glamorgan

Gower

Pontypridd

Wrexham

Delyn


Anyway that’s my shot at it. Lets see what transpires.

Frankly I would not allocate the LibDems anything more than 7 or  8 seats and especially be careful  (if I was Plaid's negotiator) of not standing in like monmouth if they are to be seen as the Party of Wales.
r.

Monday, 16 September 2019

Does Chris Bryant bid to be speaker come with promise to be Tory patsy?



It seems that Rhondda MP Chris Bryant is  making a bid for the support of Tory MPs in his bid  to become speaker of the House of Commons, y his claim that the c
onduct of outgoing Commons speaker John Bercow "sometimes feels like bullying" has been questioned by a contender to replace him.

Labour MP Chris Bryant says he "hates it when the speaker tells somebody off in really robust and aggressive terms" during parliamentary debates.

"It is absolutely devastating for the individual MP and sometimes it just feels like bullying," Mr Bryant said.

Mr Bercow, who is quitting after 10 years, has been asked to comment.

Mr Bryant, who was deputy leader of the Commons for just under in year in Gordon Brown's Labour government, says he feels "robust and aggressive" conduct is "a really bad message for parliament to send out".

 Bercow is to step down on 31 October but has faced criticism from Brexit supporters, who have questioned his impartiality on the issue of exiting the EU and claim he has facilitated efforts by MPs opposed to a no-deal exit to take control of Commons business.
The 56-year-old former Conservative MP has also been criticised for not doing more to tackle allegations of bullying and harassment in the House of Commons
Mr Bercow himself has been accused of mistreating several members of his own staff, which he denies.
Two Labour MPs Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the current deputy speaker, and Harriet Harman, the Mother of the House and the longest continuously-serving female MP, are the favourites to succeed Mr Bercow.
Mr Bryant, who has been Rhondda MP for 18 years, says he has cross-party support and feels the next speaker needs to "speak less from the chair".
"The government having a prorogation that goes on for five weeks and suspending parliament and John Bercow being, at the least, imaginative in what has been allowed to happen in the chamber.
"But at this particular moment we need somebody who completely independent and I think we need a speaker that speaks less from the chair. Somebody who is an umpire, not a player."
Anyone who watches broadcasts of PMQ 's son relises it is not the speaker that is the problem but MPs , who behave  like spoilt children in heckling opponents  on the other benches to the extent , whoever is speaking cannot be  heard.

Indeed  I don't think that Speaker Bercow has done enough to insist the Prime Minister and his Ministers  at least makes some impression of actually answering the bloody question.

I can't help feeling that Chris Bryant will be a puppet of the government of the day in order that there is no way that he faces  a vote of no confidence  as been threatened against Bercow  whose predecessor  Michael Martin who  resigned from the position on 21 June 2009 as a result of diminishing parliamentary and public confidence owing to his role in the expenses scandal.] He also stood down from the House of Commons on the following day.[3

It seems that MPs have a taste for removing the Speaker, and it seems that Mr Bryant may try and avoid this by allowing MPs to getaway with their appalling behaviour. 

Sunday, 15 September 2019

Any LibDem/Unionist pact in Scotland should immediately scupper a Plaid/LibDem one.

Following yesterday's  piece on a Plaid/LibDem pact for what is expected a General Election before Christmas, come accusations of  Unionist pact in Scotland , between the Tories and LibDem's against the SNP.


The Daily Record reports that
The Lib Dems have denied reports the party has done a deal with the Tories to form a " Better Together -type' electoral pact to help stop the SNP winning Scottish seats at a snap general election.
Willie Rennie, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, insisted there was "no pact" between his party and the Conservatives - saying the Lib Dems are "opposed to Brexit and Boris Johnson and won't be doing anything to support them".
He took to Twitter to deny reports that talks were "ongoing" between the parties to ensure the SNP does not have a "clean sweep" of Westminster seats.
Recalling how the Liberal Democrats had gone into coalition government with David Cameron after the 2010 election, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted: "Leopards - and it seems Liberals - don't change their spots.

According to this they're in election talks with the Tories?! Remember this the next time you hear the Scottish Lib Dems claim that they are anti Tory."
Rennie replied, telling the SNP leader: "Wrong - no pact between us and Conservatives.
"We are opposed to Brexit and Boris Johnson and won't be doing anything to support them."
Liberal Democrat Orkney and Shetland MP Alistair Carmichael admitted the two parties did talk to each other but insisted no electoral deal had been agreed.
The former Scottish secretary said: "We all talk to each other of course, but there's no pact.
"It's not actually necessary, voters in Scotland are pretty good at working that out for themselves who to vote for if they want to remain in the UK."

But SNP MP Martin Docherty-Hughes said: "The Lib Dems are showing their true colours by preparing to jump right back into bed with their old Tory chums in a pathetic attempt to stop the UK's largest anti-Brexit party gaining traction at a general election."
He added: "Let's not beat about the bush - the Lib Dems have sold out their principles before and given the chance they'll do exactly the same again to serve their own self interests."
Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson is one of the MPs in danger of losing her seat if there is a large swing towards the SNP in a General Election.
Swinson was a minister in the coalition government with the Tories and voted through controversial policies such as tuition fees and the Bedroom Tax.


Plaid need to seek assurances that such a pact in Scotland  Formal or Informal does not exist and will not exist , in the near future in ant Scottish Constituency before signing anything.
True Plaid and the SNP  should both pursue the course that is best for them and their separate nations respectively .
However it would be disastrous for Plaid to do a deal with the  Lib Dems   whilst the latter are doing murky deals with the Tories and maybe Labour in a Unionist pact directed against our allies.