REMAIN needs a positive Left argument.

As I said before I find I will vote to REMAIN in the RU next month but not because of the argument if the Remain side and I find many of the prominent  proponents of the In campaign as odious Leave the In campaign as leave,





Two of the Best Bloggers appear to share my concerns.

Another Angry Voice  a UK left Wing blog that does not decry the aspirations of Wales or Scotland recently pointed out that are using the same time pf Project Fear campaign as that was used by "Better Together" in Scotland.

The Brexit camp have combined utterly dishonest fearmongering tactics and pathetic Third Reich comparisons with an abject failure to spell out anything resembling a coherent economic strategy for what a post-Brexit economy would actually look like. Meanwhile senior figures on the "Bremain" side of the debate have taken to fearmongering about economic Armageddon should the British public vote to leave the EU. No doubt Gordon Brown will soon be wheeled out to scare pensioners into believing that Brexit would cost them their pensions, just like he scared the overwhelming majority of Scottish pensioners into shooting down a Scottish independence movement that was actually supported by the majority of working age voters.

Meanwhile as John Davies of Borthlas fame pointed out some of the arguments in support pf Remain in the case of Wales are admission of failure .

At least one member of the ‘out’ brigade has changed tack somewhat in recent days. Priti Patel has pointed out that there’s no guarantee of EU funds for Wales after 2020 even if we remain in the EU. Whilst elements of her argument strike me as stretching credibility (Turkey a member by 2020? I don’t think so.), her basic point is sound; there can no more be any guarantee of continuing support fro EU funding than there can be of support from the UK Government.

However what really struck me was the response of the Labour MP, Stephen Doughty, who said “… that no other part of the UK benefits as much from EU membership as Wales does and there is no real reason for us to believe that will change.” That displays a remarkable lack of ambition, not to say a lack of faith in the Welsh (Labour) Government. The whole purpose of EU funding is to help Wales reach a similar level of economic activity and success as other parts of the EU; the funding is not supposed to be open-ended.

Perhaps  Doughty problem was like Patel he couldn't guarantee that similar funding would be replaced with ones from Westminster if the UK was to leave the EU.

But even that would be a Project Fear type of campaigning.

The recent decision by ITV to host a debate between Farage and Cameron will solve nothing over my concerns .


Two Right Wing Politicians both arguing over how to prevent Immigration or making spurious arguments on how to deal with Terrorism.

It is Interesting that to note that Vote Leave has tried to sideline Farage and use Boris Johnson as the voice of out.

Indeed the campaign has deteriorated into a fight for the Leadership of the Tory party.

But this has not to us only seeing arguments coming from the right on both sides.

It will be encouraging to see other voices with a more positive argument 

In a speech in central-London, the shadow chancellor John McDonnell will say today.will say the ‘Remain’ campaign must put forward a “vision of Europe based on hope and solidarity”.

“I want to rescue the debate from the negativity and ‘Project Fear’ coming from all sides of the Tory party,” he will say.
“The referendum resulted from the splits in the Conservative Party and their fear of Ukip, and as a result the debate has degenerated and brought out the worst in Westminster politics.
“People want facts, but more importantly they want to see the progressive alternative - not just negative Tory infighting.

 “It’s time to turn this debate around, drive out the politics of despair and offer a vision for Britain and Europe, one where we protect workers’ rights, tackle tax avoidance, get to grips with climate change and protect our industries like steel.”

I hope other voices will start to put forward a more positive argument especially from a Welsh viewpoint,

Madeleine Lebeau once expressed the whole fight against Nazi tyranny,

The news that French actress Madeleine Lebeau, the last surviving cast member of the classic 1942 film Casablanca, has died has reminded me of one of  my favourite film moments,

The visiting Nazi party decides to celebrate at Rick’s club, by starting a chorus of Die Wacht am Rhein much to the chagrin of everybody around them. Having had enough of it, freedom fighter Victor Laszlo starts up the band and with Rick’s approving nod they begin to play the French national anthem La Marseillaise. Soon all of the refugees from the Nazi’s war on Europe begin to sing along out the Nazi officers who eventually are forced to give up.

One  interesting thing is that the character of Lazio is a Czech resistance fighter and so for him the signing of La Marseillaise is an act of defiance for all those who resisting the Nazi's.

But it Madeleine Lebeau face that sums it all up

To me she is not acting but as an expression of reality

Lebeau married actor Marcel Dalio in 1939; it was his second marriage. They had met while performing a play together. In 1939 she appeared in her first film, the melodrama Jeunes filles en détresse (Girls in Distress).

In June 1940, Lebeau and her husbandr   Dalio (who was Jewish; born Israel Moshe Blauschild) fled Paris ahead of the invading German Army and reached Lisbon. They are presumed to have received transit visas from Aristides de Sousa Mendes, allowing them to enter Spain and journey on to Portugal. It took them two months to obtain visas to Chile.^[

However, when their ship, the S.S. Quanza, stopped in Mexico, they were stranded, along with around 200 other passengers, when the Chilean visas they had purchased turned out to be forgeries. Eventually, they were able to get temporary Canadian passports and entered the United States.

So she I believe she expressing her own  feelings as she she tearfully shouts "Vive La France",

It could be argued that for those Nations that were the victims of French Colonialism La Marseillaise. is hardly an expresion of freedom and I wonder what our Breton friends think of it.

But in 1942 for the French  refuges (and others) from Nazi tyrantny and for one rather beautiful actress it must have provoked huge emotions,

Will La Pasionaria join Carwyn's cabinet?

Maybe the outcome  of the "Welsh" Labour Plaid talks over the appointment of First Minister  may have an interesting affect on the future of another Party

In. A joint statement  has said

“These talks were undertaken in a spirit of co-operation with a view to the formation of a Labour minority government as opposed to formal coalition talks.”

Shortly before the Labour/ Plaid Cymru talks began, a senior Liberal Democrat source confirmed that Kirsty Williams had been offered a place in Carwyn Jones’ Cabinet.

With La Pasionaria on board Labour will be one seat of a an overall majority but could relaxa bit 

According to the Wasting Mule 

Carwyn regards Kirsty as an ally,” said the Liberal Democrat source.

 “And that could be useful at a time when some of his colleagues are after his job.“With Kirsty on board, Labour would be back in the position it was in the last Assembly – with 30 of the 60 AMs on board.“It didn’t cause them too much trouble: they had five budgets to get through, which they managed with a bit of negotiation. They didn’t have much problem getting legislation through, as most of it wasn’t ideologically driven.”

But naturally there will be Labour AMs  unhappy about this a Labour source said: 

“A lot of people in the Labour Party would be unhappy if Kirsty Williams was offered a Cabinet position.“It isn’t just the fact that the Liberal Democrats joined up with the Tories for five years and Kirsty and co didn’t say a thing. A different result last year and Clegg and co would still have carried on with the coalition.”

The Mule claims that...

....appointing Ms Williams to the Cabinet would also reduce the number of Labour Cabinet members at a time when ambitious AMs are seeking promotion.The arrival in the Labour group of former UK Government Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, former MEP and shadow spokeswoman in the Lords Eluned Morgan, and other highly-thought-of newcomers like Jeremy Miles and Lee Waters makes offering Ms Williams a post a more difficult task for Mr Jones – especially as she cannot deliver Labour a majority.

We will see how talented these are  Huw Irranca-Davies hardly set the house alight as a MP and can you really rate someone who seems to have jumped ship because he couldn't face being in opposition in the commons,

 As far as La Pasionaria is concerned would however remove one of the most effective ( if not the) critics of the Labour Government over the years .

But being a party of one  and unless  Llywydd (Presiding Officer) Elin Jones is particularly kind , she will have far less speaking rights that she has enjoyed on the past.

The Lib Dems  had enjoyed the luxury of opposition for decades  before joining the coalition and found defending rather than attacking very difficult.

It would be interesting  to see how she reacts to becoming  a "Poacher turned Gamekeeper".

She has in the past hinted she may consider a future run for a Westminster seat when her children are older.

So she could  be nurturing ambitions to fight the Brecon and Radnor Westminster seat  (or whatsoever emerges from boundary changes). in the next UK election.

She may therefore well be weighing how joining a Labour Cabinet n the Assembly will  effect her chances of wining .

Who "Won "in Wales and Scotland?

Former first minister Rhodri Morgan has suggested Welsh Labour could learn lessons from the SNP in the way the two parties reacted to last week's elections and declared victory

With Plaid and Labour going into a form of Purdaah over he weekend as  the talks about of breaking the deadlock over the election of a first minister continues. We are privileged to hear the musing of that great Welsh Statesman Rhodri Morgan. who argues that Labour should have declared victory last week.

 Speaking on BBC Radio Cymru's O'r Bae programme the former  Labour First Minis  said: 

"Nicola Sturgeon was saying this is the third victory in a row that we've had in Scotland."So you create a psychology, so that everyone expects that you will master, you will govern, and that nobody can ask a question about what the way forward is."Now Labour was saying, no, don't rejoice, don't claim that we've won, because we haven't."Technically Nicola Sturgeon hadn't either, but she had created the psychology of expectation."

But there was a huge difference in the Result

In Wales  there are 40 seat constituency and 20 Regional seats

In Scotland  there are  are 73 constituency seats  and 59  Regional seats

The reason for this is that in Wales the ratio was made to make a Labour Majority more likely  Scotland the ratio was intended to  prevent the SNP getting an overall Majority something they did in 2011 to the astonishment of everyone. 

Details are from Wikepedia

e • d Welsh Assembly election, 2016

Parties		Additional member system										Total seats
		Constituency					Region
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Total	+/−	%
	Labour	353,866	34.7	-7.6	27	-1	319,196	31.5	-5.4	2	0	29	-1	48.3
	Plaid Cymru	209,376	20.5	+1.3	6	+1	211,548	20.8	+3.0	6	0	12	+1	20.0
	Conservative	215,597	21.1	-3.9	6	0	190,846	18.8	-3.7	5	-3	11	-3	18.3
	UKIP	127,038	12.5	+12.5	0	0	132,138	13.0	+8.5	7	+7	7	+7	11.7
	Liberal Democrats	78,165	7.7	-2.9	1	0	65,504	6.5	-1.6	0	-4	1	-4	1.7
	Green	25,202	2.5	+2.3	0	0	30,211	3.0	-0.5	0	0	0	0	0.0

If we look at the Ratio using the regional vote we see that Labour are massively over represented

Popular Vote
Labour			31.5%
Plaid Cymru			20.8%
Conservative			18.8%
UKIP			13.0%
Liberal Democrats			6.5%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party			4.4%
Green			3.0%
Other			2.0%

Parliament seats
Labour			48.3%
Plaid Cymru			20.0%
Conservative			18.3%
UKIP			11.7%
Liberal Democrats			1.7%

The Result in Scotland still saw the SNP make a net gain in the constituency seats but lose out in the regional seats

e • d Scottish general election, 2016

Parties		Additional member system										Total seats
		Constituency					Region
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Total	+/−	%
	SNP	1,059,897	46.5	1.1	59	6	953,987	41.7	2.3	4	12	63	6	48.8
	Conservative	501,844	22.0	8.1	7	4	524,222	22.9	10.6	24	12	31	16	24.0
	Labour	514,261	22.6	9.2	3	12	435,919	19.1	7.2	21	1	24	13	18.6
	Scottish Green	13,172	0.6	0.6	0	0	150,426	6.6	2.2	6	4	6	4	4.7
	Liberal Democrats	178,238	7.8	0.1	4	2	119,284	5.2	0	1	2	5	0	3.9
	UKIP	—	—	—	—	—	46,426	2.0	1.1	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Solidarity	—	—	—	—	—	14,333	0.6	0.5	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Scottish Christian	1,162	0.1	0.0	0	0	11,686	0.5	0.3	0	0	0	0	0.0
	RISE	—	—	—	—	—	10,911	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Women's Equality	—	—	—	—	—	5,968	0.3	0.3	0	0	0	0	0.0

The  SNP were also represented if we look at the proportional  representation 

Popular Vote
SNP			41.7%
Conservative			22.9%
Labour			19.1%
Green			6.6%
Liberal Democrats			5.2%
UKIP			2.0%
Other			2.5%

Parliament seats
SNP			48.8%
Conservative			24.0%
Labour			18.6%
Green			4.7%
Liberal Democrats			3.9%

However  in Wales Labour saw a 7.6% fall in the constituency  vote and 5.4% in the Regional,

In Scotland the SNP saw a rise of 1.1% on the Constituency vote ans a fall of 2.3% in the Regions 

If we take into account that people in Scotland saw a Persuasive campaign to for Independence supporters to transfer their vote to the Greens for example then we can see why  the SNP claimed victory

Labour survived a fairly large swing and lost one seat in a system that has always favoured them , but they have no right to claim an absolute victory ot mandate 

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