Who "Won "in Wales and Scotland?

Former first minister Rhodri Morgan has suggested Welsh Labour could learn lessons from the SNP in the way the two parties reacted to last week's elections and declared victory

With Plaid and Labour going into a form of Purdaah over he weekend as  the talks about of breaking the deadlock over the election of a first minister continues. We are privileged to hear the musing of that great Welsh Statesman Rhodri Morgan. who argues that Labour should have declared victory last week.

 Speaking on BBC Radio Cymru's O'r Bae programme the former  Labour First Minis  said: 

"Nicola Sturgeon was saying this is the third victory in a row that we've had in Scotland."So you create a psychology, so that everyone expects that you will master, you will govern, and that nobody can ask a question about what the way forward is."Now Labour was saying, no, don't rejoice, don't claim that we've won, because we haven't."Technically Nicola Sturgeon hadn't either, but she had created the psychology of expectation."

But there was a huge difference in the Result

In Wales  there are 40 seat constituency and 20 Regional seats

In Scotland  there are  are 73 constituency seats  and 59  Regional seats

The reason for this is that in Wales the ratio was made to make a Labour Majority more likely  Scotland the ratio was intended to  prevent the SNP getting an overall Majority something they did in 2011 to the astonishment of everyone. 

Details are from Wikepedia

e • d Welsh Assembly election, 2016

Parties		Additional member system										Total seats
		Constituency					Region
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Total	+/−	%
	Labour	353,866	34.7	-7.6	27	-1	319,196	31.5	-5.4	2	0	29	-1	48.3
	Plaid Cymru	209,376	20.5	+1.3	6	+1	211,548	20.8	+3.0	6	0	12	+1	20.0
	Conservative	215,597	21.1	-3.9	6	0	190,846	18.8	-3.7	5	-3	11	-3	18.3
	UKIP	127,038	12.5	+12.5	0	0	132,138	13.0	+8.5	7	+7	7	+7	11.7
	Liberal Democrats	78,165	7.7	-2.9	1	0	65,504	6.5	-1.6	0	-4	1	-4	1.7
	Green	25,202	2.5	+2.3	0	0	30,211	3.0	-0.5	0	0	0	0	0.0

If we look at the Ratio using the regional vote we see that Labour are massively over represented

Popular Vote
Labour			31.5%
Plaid Cymru			20.8%
Conservative			18.8%
UKIP			13.0%
Liberal Democrats			6.5%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party			4.4%
Green			3.0%
Other			2.0%

Parliament seats
Labour			48.3%
Plaid Cymru			20.0%
Conservative			18.3%
UKIP			11.7%
Liberal Democrats			1.7%

The Result in Scotland still saw the SNP make a net gain in the constituency seats but lose out in the regional seats

e • d Scottish general election, 2016

Parties		Additional member system										Total seats
		Constituency					Region
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Total	+/−	%
	SNP	1,059,897	46.5	1.1	59	6	953,987	41.7	2.3	4	12	63	6	48.8
	Conservative	501,844	22.0	8.1	7	4	524,222	22.9	10.6	24	12	31	16	24.0
	Labour	514,261	22.6	9.2	3	12	435,919	19.1	7.2	21	1	24	13	18.6
	Scottish Green	13,172	0.6	0.6	0	0	150,426	6.6	2.2	6	4	6	4	4.7
	Liberal Democrats	178,238	7.8	0.1	4	2	119,284	5.2	0	1	2	5	0	3.9
	UKIP	—	—	—	—	—	46,426	2.0	1.1	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Solidarity	—	—	—	—	—	14,333	0.6	0.5	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Scottish Christian	1,162	0.1	0.0	0	0	11,686	0.5	0.3	0	0	0	0	0.0
	RISE	—	—	—	—	—	10,911	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Women's Equality	—	—	—	—	—	5,968	0.3	0.3	0	0	0	0	0.0

The  SNP were also represented if we look at the proportional  representation 

Popular Vote
SNP			41.7%
Conservative			22.9%
Labour			19.1%
Green			6.6%
Liberal Democrats			5.2%
UKIP			2.0%
Other			2.5%

Parliament seats
SNP			48.8%
Conservative			24.0%
Labour			18.6%
Green			4.7%
Liberal Democrats			3.9%

However  in Wales Labour saw a 7.6% fall in the constituency  vote and 5.4% in the Regional,

In Scotland the SNP saw a rise of 1.1% on the Constituency vote ans a fall of 2.3% in the Regions 

If we take into account that people in Scotland saw a Persuasive campaign to for Independence supporters to transfer their vote to the Greens for example then we can see why  the SNP claimed victory

Labour survived a fairly large swing and lost one seat in a system that has always favoured them , but they have no right to claim an absolute victory ot mandate 

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