Three retiring Labour AM will leave seats open to challengers.

The news that Gower AM Edwina Hart and Neath AM Gwenda Thomas . have joined Llanelli am Keith Davies  in announcing thay they are to stand down stand down at the 2016 assembly election. may have an important influence on the make up of the next Assembly

Currently economy and transport minister, Mrs Hart's previous posts included local government and health the Gower seat will be top of the Tories lisy after they won the Parliamentary seat in May

Ms Hart increased her Majority last time but can the Tories

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Gower[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Edwina Hart	12,866	48.1	+13.9
	Conservative	Caroline Jones	8,002	29.9	+0.1
	Plaid Cymru	Darren Price	3,249	12.1	−6.4
	Liberal Democrats	Peter May	2,656	9.9	−0.7
Majority			4,864	18.2
Turnout			26,773	43.1
	Labour hold		Swing

But in the previous election Byron Davies who won the Parliamentary seat May ran her close

Welsh Assembly Election 2007: Gower
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Edwina Hart	9,406	34.2	−9.4
	Conservative	Byron Davies	8,214	29.8	+10.2
	Plaid Cymru	Darren Price	5,106	18.5	+3.8
	Liberal Democrats	Nicholas J. Tregoning	2,924	10.6	−1.1
	UKIP	Alex R. Lewis	1,895	6.9	−3.4
Majority			1,192	4.3
Turnout			27,545	44.8	+5.6
	Labour hold		Swing

Mrs Thomas sometimes known has Gwenda Who?has been deputy social services minister, chaired committees and led a safeguarding children review. leaves s a similar seat open to a challenge this time from Plaid

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Neath
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Gwenda Thomas	12,736	53.4	+10.0
	Plaid Cymru	Alun Llewellyn	6,346	26.6	−9.1
	Conservative	Alex Powell	2,780	11.7	−0.1
	BNP	Michael Green	1,004	4.2	N/A
	Liberal Democrats	Mathew McCarthy	983	4.1	−5.1
Majority			6,390	26.8
Turnout			23849	41.1	−2.4
	Labour hold		Swing	+9.6

again the 2007 result saw Plaid running Ma Thomas close

Welsh Assembly Election 2007: Neath[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Gwenda Thomas	10,934	43.4	−7.6
	Plaid Cymru	Alun Llewellyn	8,990	35.7	+6.9
	Conservative	Andrew Sivertsen	2,956	11.7	+2.6
	Liberal Democrats	Mrs Sheila Ramsay-Waye	2,320	9.2	+0.0
Majority			1,944	7.7
Turnout			25,200	43.5	+4.4
	Labour hold		Swing	−7.3

 and this must be the sought of seat Plaid must win in order  to be making progress

But wining Llanelli may be vital for Plaid  Keith Davies took it from Helen Mary Jones  who is standing again and who will make history if she regains her seat for the second time.

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Llanelli
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Keith Davies	10,359	39.7	+3.7
	Plaid Cymru	Helen Mary Jones	10,279	39.4	−10.7
	Conservative	Andrew Morgan	2,880	11.0	+1.1
	Putting Llanelli First	Siân Caiach	2,004	7.7	+7.7
	Liberal Democrats	Cheryl Philpott	548	2.1	−1.7
Majority			80	0.3
Turnout			26,070	44.6
	Labour gain from Plaid Cymru		Swing	+7.2

But the omens are not good .despite putting up a strong campaign last May Plaid saw a fairly large ffall in its vote and the question must be will a strong Ukip vote hinder or help Plaid regain this seat 

General Election 2015: Llanelli [10][11][12][13][14][15][16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Nia Griffith	15,948	41.3	−1.1
	Plaid Cymru	Vaughan Williams	8,853	23.0	−7.0
	UKIP	Kenneth Rees	6,269	16.3	+13.5
	Conservative	Selaine Saxby	5,534	14.3	0.0
	Liberal Democrat	Cen Phillips	751	1.9	−8.5
	Green	Guy Smith	689	1.8	N/A
	People First	Siân Caiach	407	1.1	N/A
	TUSC	Scott Jones	123	0.3	N/A
Majority			7,095	18.4
Turnout			38,574	65.0
	Labour hold		Swing	+2.3

It a long time to May 2016 politically wise so it may be to early for predictions.

Refurbishing Westminster building could cost more than setting up Independent Scotland..

MPs and peers should not be moved out of the Palace of Westminster when it undergoes billions of pounds worth of repairs, the government minister in charge of the House of Commons has said.

A report is yesterday   conclude today that repairing Parliament’s crumbling buildings will cost the taxpayer at least £3 billion. But that figure could double to £6 billion if builders have to work around MPs and their staff and it would take many more years to complete the renovation.

Chris Grayling, the Leader of the Commons, told MPs this morning that he did not want to see MPs evacuated to a temporary location, suggesting it would undermine Britain’s democracy.

Giving the fact that there are 66 MPs (SNP.Plaid Cymru.SDLP and Sinn  Fein) who would gladly leave  the bloody place permanently it might be prudent to consider the future of Parliament  including  whether powers should be dissolved to an English Parliament or its regions before spending 6 billion  om a edifice that is crumbling faster than the state itself.

It is interesting to note that a disputed Treasury  claim that The cost of setting up an independent Scottish state could  have been  as much as £1.5bn, , but it may well be the total cost of repairing  the Westminster Parliament be more per head for Scottish Citizens than  setting up an Independent state.

So Scots will have to contribute towards the cost of a building many would like to se the back of as well as the annual running of a building in which the two chambers cannot accommodate all their members seated.

Personality be happy to see the end of Westminster as a Parliament and if we are to remain in the Union see a new building fit for a 21 century  democracy modelling the chamber on on the Scottish Parliament  or Welsh Assembly.

True the Scottish Parliament building  scheduled to open in 2001] it did so in 2004, more than three years late with an estimated final cost of £414 million,[many times higher than initial estimates of between £10m and £40m so a new Parliament building in London (Does it have to be London) would cost considerably more but unlikely 3-6 billion .

Misty eyed British Nationalist can then visit Westminster remembering the good old days of Victorian Values   where  the pesky working class were denied the vote  and the Scots and Welsh were wiling tools of that Empire.

Using another Fag Packet.

So this is how the Welsh Government works.

In April 2013, it was announced that a major review was to be undertaken into local government organisation in Wales, with a Commission on Public Service Governance and Delivery being established, to be chaired by Sir Paul Williams

The Commission reported on 20 January 2014. It recommended that the number of councils be reduced, through mergers rather than through boundary changes, from 22 to 10, 11 or 12; and suggested that the cost of merging the councils would be met through savings made within about two years.
For many it loked kike an expensive commision had come up with a solution writen on a Fag Packet.

The government sit back and hope local authorities come up with plans to merge but in the rare  moments  when they come up with plans they are often mergers contrary
  to what Williams had recommended  to the extent that plans to merge the Vale of Glamorgan council with Bridgend council were  rejected by the Minister for Public Services.

Leighton Andrews AM, has announced that he is "not persuaded" by any of the three Expressions of Interest submitted by authorities across Wales.

Then a moment of genius said minister and his own Fag Packet comes up with his own plan rejecting his own commission and proposing not 12,11,or 10 councils but 9 or 8 

Basically  it a return to the the county boundaries   that ran  from f om 1974 until 1996, without the lower tier didtrict council 

There are some changes Caerphilly will now be in Gwent,

Leighton Andrews redrawing of the Map may be summed up with this from Wrexham.com

Since there is no mention of redrawing the ward boundaries it appears the number of councillors will remain the same that's going to be  lot of councillors iin each county

Welsh Unitary Authorities
	Control	Con	Labour	LibDem	UKIP	Green	Plaid	Others
Blaenau Gwent	Lab		33					9
Bridgend	Lab	1	39	3			1	10
Caerphilly	Lab		50				20	3
Cardiff	Lab	7	46	16			2	4
Carmarthenshire			22				28	24
Ceredigion			1	7			19	15
Conwy		13	10	5			12	19
Denbighshire		9	18	1			7	12
Flintshire		8	30	7			1	24
Gwynedd			5	2			36	32
Isle of Anglesey	Ind		2				12	16
Merthyr Tydfil	Lab		25					8
Monmouthshire		19	11	3				10
Neath Port Talbot	Lab		52				8	4
Newport	Lab	10	37	1				2
Pembrokeshire	Ind	3	9	1			5	42
Powys	Ind	10	7	8				48
Rhondda Cynon Taff	Lab	1	60	1			9	4
Swansea	Lab	4	48	11				9
Torfaen	Lab	4	30				2	8
Vale of Glamorgan		12	21		1		7	6
Wrexham		5	23	4			1	19
Wales Totals		106	579	70	1	0	170	328

That#s  nearly an average of  157 or 140 councilors per county  depending om there being 8 or 9 per council Will we need mew County Halls on order to accommodate them?