Three retiring Labour AM will leave seats open to challengers.

The news that Gower AM Edwina Hart and Neath AM Gwenda Thomas . have joined Llanelli am Keith Davies  in announcing thay they are to stand down stand down at the 2016 assembly election. may have an important influence on the make up of the next Assembly

Currently economy and transport minister, Mrs Hart's previous posts included local government and health the Gower seat will be top of the Tories lisy after they won the Parliamentary seat in May

Ms Hart increased her Majority last time but can the Tories

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Gower[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Edwina Hart	12,866	48.1	+13.9
	Conservative	Caroline Jones	8,002	29.9	+0.1
	Plaid Cymru	Darren Price	3,249	12.1	−6.4
	Liberal Democrats	Peter May	2,656	9.9	−0.7
Majority			4,864	18.2
Turnout			26,773	43.1
	Labour hold		Swing

But in the previous election Byron Davies who won the Parliamentary seat May ran her close

Welsh Assembly Election 2007: Gower
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Edwina Hart	9,406	34.2	−9.4
	Conservative	Byron Davies	8,214	29.8	+10.2
	Plaid Cymru	Darren Price	5,106	18.5	+3.8
	Liberal Democrats	Nicholas J. Tregoning	2,924	10.6	−1.1
	UKIP	Alex R. Lewis	1,895	6.9	−3.4
Majority			1,192	4.3
Turnout			27,545	44.8	+5.6
	Labour hold		Swing

Mrs Thomas sometimes known has Gwenda Who?has been deputy social services minister, chaired committees and led a safeguarding children review. leaves s a similar seat open to a challenge this time from Plaid

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Neath
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Gwenda Thomas	12,736	53.4	+10.0
	Plaid Cymru	Alun Llewellyn	6,346	26.6	−9.1
	Conservative	Alex Powell	2,780	11.7	−0.1
	BNP	Michael Green	1,004	4.2	N/A
	Liberal Democrats	Mathew McCarthy	983	4.1	−5.1
Majority			6,390	26.8
Turnout			23849	41.1	−2.4
	Labour hold		Swing	+9.6

again the 2007 result saw Plaid running Ma Thomas close

Welsh Assembly Election 2007: Neath[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Gwenda Thomas	10,934	43.4	−7.6
	Plaid Cymru	Alun Llewellyn	8,990	35.7	+6.9
	Conservative	Andrew Sivertsen	2,956	11.7	+2.6
	Liberal Democrats	Mrs Sheila Ramsay-Waye	2,320	9.2	+0.0
Majority			1,944	7.7
Turnout			25,200	43.5	+4.4
	Labour hold		Swing	−7.3

 and this must be the sought of seat Plaid must win in order  to be making progress

But wining Llanelli may be vital for Plaid  Keith Davies took it from Helen Mary Jones  who is standing again and who will make history if she regains her seat for the second time.

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Llanelli
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Keith Davies	10,359	39.7	+3.7
	Plaid Cymru	Helen Mary Jones	10,279	39.4	−10.7
	Conservative	Andrew Morgan	2,880	11.0	+1.1
	Putting Llanelli First	Siân Caiach	2,004	7.7	+7.7
	Liberal Democrats	Cheryl Philpott	548	2.1	−1.7
Majority			80	0.3
Turnout			26,070	44.6
	Labour gain from Plaid Cymru		Swing	+7.2

But the omens are not good .despite putting up a strong campaign last May Plaid saw a fairly large ffall in its vote and the question must be will a strong Ukip vote hinder or help Plaid regain this seat 

General Election 2015: Llanelli [10][11][12][13][14][15][16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Nia Griffith	15,948	41.3	−1.1
	Plaid Cymru	Vaughan Williams	8,853	23.0	−7.0
	UKIP	Kenneth Rees	6,269	16.3	+13.5
	Conservative	Selaine Saxby	5,534	14.3	0.0
	Liberal Democrat	Cen Phillips	751	1.9	−8.5
	Green	Guy Smith	689	1.8	N/A
	People First	Siân Caiach	407	1.1	N/A
	TUSC	Scott Jones	123	0.3	N/A
Majority			7,095	18.4
Turnout			38,574	65.0
	Labour hold		Swing	+2.3

It a long time to May 2016 politically wise so it may be to early for predictions.