Tuesday, 24 March 2015

10 reasons why a Blue Labour -Tory Grand Coalition may be on the cards.

There has been much speculation about whether Labour  could go into coalition with the SNP or form some of vote by vote agreement .

But it is just as likely that Labour and the Tories will form a  Grand Coalition

  1. Both have signed up to continuing Austerity Programme
  2. Labour will be tougher than the Tories when it comes to slashing the benefits bill, Rachel Reeves, the new shadow work and pensions secretary, has insisted 
  3. Both want to renew Trident 
  4. Neither Labour nor the Tories are really keen on  providing further Devolution  for Wa;es certainly not Parity with Scotland".
  5. Although it remains to be seen both  will probably fall short of proposing the sort of Devomax for Scotland as stated in the infamous VOW .
  6. Both will support any Interventionist Policy proposed by the USA even if the next President is a Tea Party Nut Job
  7. Both oppose any form of PR and together can resist it 
  8. Both are in reality trying to influence voters of "Middle England " in marginal constituencies. The rest of us particularly where there are  huge majorities  don;t count.
  9. Both are run by the Oxbridge elite   most of whom have never done anything outside politics  and despite the bluster have a cosier relationship than most of their non Oxbridge colleagues.
  10. Above all they both want to make sure a Progressive Social Democratic Party like the SNP ,  Plaid  or the Greens who don't agree with the above points do not have their hands on any power in Westminster.
Do not be surprised if Dave and Ed come to agreement  with the former  becoming PM and Miliband his deputy. especially after Cameron has announce he will not serve a term after this election . Maybe they will swap positions in 2017-2015 with Miliband  becoming PM  and the Tories  using the Time to select a new leader  in 2020.

Monday, 23 March 2015

Labour-Tory Establishment agree stop Scotland from Independence or being ia Power in the UK

Not since the 1923 General Election  of 1923 have the establishment been thrown into a panic 

 Although Stanley Baldwin,  Conservatives won most seats . Labour's , MacDonald formed the first ever Labour government with tacit support from the Liberals. Asquith's motivation for permitting Labour to enter power, rather than trying bring the Liberals back into government, was that he hoped they would prove to be incompetent and quickly lose support.


UK General Election 1923
CandidatesVotes
PartyStandingElectedGainedUnseatedNet % of total %No.Net %
 Conservative536258- 8641.95138.05,286,159-0.5
 Labour427191+ 4931.05630.74,267,831+1.0
 Liberal457158+ 9625.69129.74,129,922+10.8
 Nationalist430000.4870.454,157N/A
 Independent6201- 10.3250.336,802-0.5
 Communist4001- 10.234,2580.0
 Being in a minority, MacDonald's government only lasted 10 months and another election was held in October  1924 with a Tory Landslide  but it was the :Liberals  who lost heavily ending up with just 40 seats  and the Labpur -Tory two party system became the norm

The reaction of the great unwashed  forming least of all being part of the Government  from the Public School Oxbridge elite could be hared throughout the land .






Now they are expressing outrage a t the prospect of the Scots who were supposed to be licking their wounds after the referendum campaign  and NO vote  voting for what some Unionist consider the equivalent of the local Mau Mau.

Witness Tory minister Anna Soubry  ( Who must send some Tory MPs into s frenzy with memorise of Matron at School)  responding to Alex Salmond 

As Wings over Scotland seems to be experiencing a degree of regret about having begged Scots to stay in the UK. The body language says as much as the words.

Her mention pf Trident and Putin  is especially Ironic since it was claimed  that David  Cameron's Government wanted  the backing of the Russian President  in the battle against Scottish independence,.

Itar-Tass, citing a source in the Conservative Prime Minister's office, said Britain was "extremely interested" in referendum support from Russia, which this year holds the presidency of the influential G8 group of rich industrial nations.
The state-owned agency - acknowledged as the Kremlin's official mouthpiece before and after the end of Communism - said the Cameron aide had warned Scottish independence could "send shockwaves across the whole of Europe".
Meanwhile there's a claim that Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment from Political Betting ..

Though why a Politician being refreshingly honest about his parties intentions could be proved to be a wrong move is somewhat disturbing for those of us who like our politicians to be open with us.

Sunday, 22 March 2015

Plaid Cymru's Neil McEvoyordered to pay Labour rival Michael Michael £50k

 Wales Online report that A senior Plaid Cymru councillor has been ordered to pay a Labour rival £50,000 before April 10 after withdrawing a libel action over a leaflet in which he was described as Del Boy.Neil McEvoy, who leads the Plaid group on Cardiff council, was the authority’s deputy leader for four years until 2012.In 2011 he began a defamation claim against Michael Michael, at the time a former Labour councillor (who he serened to have a long running feud with)   whom he had defeated in the city’s Fairwater ward.Mr Michael has since returned to the council, representing another part of the city. He currently chairs the planning committee.

The leaflet at the heart of the case carried an imprint saying it was “printed and promoted” by Mr Michael, and included a cartoon of Del Boy from the TV comedy series Only Fools and Horse with Coun McEvoy’s face superimposed on it.Barristers representing the two rivals put forward legal arguments last year at a High Court hearing in Cardiff on whether it is defamatory to refer to a public figure as “Del Boy”.

David Hughes, for Mr McEvoy, said:

“We all know who Del Boy is. He’s not to be trusted. He’s a rogue. Which of us would like to be compared to Del Boy?”But Hugh Tomlinson QC, for Mr Michael, said: “The comparison between Del Boy and the claimant wouldn’t be taken literally by readers of the leaflet.“Suggesting that Coun McEvoy is like Del Boy Trotter because he is a roguish character and a fantasist is obviously a comment rather than a statement of fact and can’t be read in any other way.”
 Don't you just love the way Barristers can twist words . But it is silly that this went to court  and maybe we should have a system Election Officers approving leaflets.

Candidates could produce what they wanted and not get approval but would risk a new election  of guide lines .

But with hundreds of leaflets being produced it may b impracticable   to implement . But we should have clearer guide lines  on Negative Campaigning . and some kind of way of  countermanding what is becoming more and more candidates slagging of thier  opponents  personally rather than tell us what they would do.  

I have ben unable to find the reference  but I believe when Mr Michael was first defeated  by Plaids Mcevoy it was the former who threatened to sue  over a leaflet.So this spat has been going on for same time.

On legal advice, Mr McEvoy recently decided to withdraw the claim.A court order issued by Judge Judge Andrew Keyser QC said Mr McEvoy should pay one quarter of Mr Michael’s costs of the preliminary issues, and all his costs since April 2013. He must pay a £50,000 share of these costs within three weeks pending an assessment of how much should be paid in total.

Mr McEvoy said:
 With hindsight, I now regret having started this action.“I have developed a thicker skin, and in future if I dislike something written about me I will write a leaflet of my own instead of issuing a writ. I’m covered by libel insurance, but I don’t think anyone has gained from this case going to court.This is the end of it, and it’s time to move on.”

Lets hope so Politicians should stick to confronting each other  on the hustings  and the Parliamentary ,Assembly or  Council Chamber  rather than in the Courts

Because I don't have libel insurance if you are going to make a comment please be careful . I don't want to censor anyone,

Saturday, 21 March 2015

Rhyl South West - results ward another Labour Hold (Yawn).

Any one hoping for  Political Earthquake in the Rhyl South West By-election will be disappointed .


Labour held on the seat easily and continue what must be a impressive number of defences  run . Only I believe  loosing two seats in by-elections in Wales since their landslide in 2012 Ian Johnson on the Buttrills Ward on the Vale of Glamorgan. for Plaid in 2012 and former Lib Dem Peter May as Independent in the Uplands ward on Swansea Council last November.
Any more let me know.

The Result  County Council - Thursday, 19 March 2015
Rhyl South West - results
Election CandidatePartyVotes%
 Peter PrendergastLabour47464%Elected
 Melanie Ann JonesConservative13118%Not elected
 David John WilmotPlaid Cymru - The Party of Wales628%Not elected
 Diana HannamIndependent527%Not elected
 David Malcolm DearLiberal Democrats

County Council - Thursday, 3 May 2012

Rhyl South West - results
Election CandidatePartyVotes%
 Patricia Margaret JonesLabour79739%Elected
 Margaret McCarrollLabour64732%Elected
 David Anthony James ThomasIndependent1849%Not elected
 Glyn WilliamsIndependent1417%Not elected
 Harold Winston BennettConservative1166%Not elected
 William James DawsonConservative965%Not elected
 David Malcolm DearLiberal Democrats713%Not elected
Labour also held the seat on Rhyl Town council
Rhyl [Cefndy] - results
Election CandidatePartyVotes%
 Stanley Frederick WalkerLabour35276%Elected
 Melanie Ann JonesConservative7717%Not elected
 David Malcolm DearLiberal Democrats327%Not elected


It seems that anyone looking at council by-election results for a pointer to any change in Welsh seats in GE2012 may well be disappointed. 

Friday, 20 March 2015

There is an Alternative to the Budget but its not coming from the LibDems or Labour.

There was something rather sad and pathetic in the commons yesterday,  when Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, the second most senior Liberal Democrat in the coalition presented alternative Budget plans to those put forward by the Chancellor. In what could be is Swan Song not only as a Minister and as a MP  where he faces loosing to the SNP in next May election.
Alexander  more less declared an end to the coalition  as he he laid out his “better economic plan” which “borrows less than Labour and cuts less than the Conservatives”.
Mr Alexander criticised the plans contained in the official Budget to cut government spending to 1964 levels –“the era of Cathy Come Home”.
He outlined plans to achieve the £30bn of savings needed to eliminate the structural current deficit through a combination of tax rises, tackling tax avoidance, departmental cuts and welfare savings.
He said: 
“[The] fiscal plans I’m setting out today are based on a further £6bn from tax dodgers, an additional £6bn of tax rises – those in high value property, the banking sector and others should pay more rather than asking those working on low incomes to accept less.“This would leave around £12bn of departmental expenditure savings and the remaining £3.5bn from welfare savings.”

So If there is a vote on the Budget before the Commons goes into recess before the Election  will he and his fellow LibDems vote against  the Chancellor' proposal .

Its going to be a bit late in the day to say you are sorry for being part of a l government that has for the the last 5 years imposing idealogical cuts .M

Meanwhile Plaid Cymru has claimed that it could reduce the deficit in a “fair and equitable way” through measures which would raise £100bn over the next five years.

Treasury spokesman Jonathan Edwards said: 
We would implement limiting income tax relief on pension contributions to the standard rate, which according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) would save the Treasury £10bn a year. We would also lift the employee upper earnings limit on National Insurance Contributions to £100,000 a year which would yield £10bn per annum.“Those on higher incomes who contribute to their pensions already benefit from many breaks and allowances and by ending the income tax relief on higher and additional rates, £50bn could be saved over the course of the next parliament. Currently those earning over £805 a week – £42,500 per year – only pay 2% National Insurance Contributions on earnings over that level.“Those most able to contribute, should do, and by raising the upper earnings limit in this way, would bring in another £50bn over the next parliament... With these two measures Plaid Cymru would ensure that £100bn is secured over the course of the next Parliament to pay down the UK debt and deficit in a prudent way.“In contrast, the current UK government will have only carried out £126bn of consolidation measures over the course of the present parliament. The austerity experiment has failed.“They haven’t paid off the deficit by 2015 as promised due to implementing cuts that sucked demand out of the economy and hit revenues, whilst at the same time giving tax cuts to their banker and fat cat friends in the City of London.”


With Ed Balls has saying there was nothing in a “pretty empty” Budget which Labour would reverse if it won the election.  It is clear that those looking for an alternative to the Austerity pact pf the Tories LibDems and Labour  should seriously consider voting for a Plaid.SNP,Greem (or Mebyon Kernow) candidate  in May.


For perhaps the first time  in over 50 years everyone in the UK  has a choice between the establishment and a radical left leaning alternative ,

Whether you live in Glasgow ,Belfast, Cardiff ,London or Truro this an opportunity to vote for a change in the way we are governed don't miss it.




 

Thursday, 19 March 2015

What Idiot thought of having PCC and Assembly Elections on the same day

Interesting us of words by the  the Electoral Reform Society (ERS)  who warn that
 The “wrong person” could get elected in the 2016 Assembly elections in a “car-crash for Welsh democracy” unless plans to hold the police and crime commissioners vote on the same day are scrapped,
According to the Wasting Mule on line The group claims that an election “clash” could “throw” the result of the Assembly vote. The ERS wants the police commissioner vote to be delayed for a year.It warns:

“If the clash goes ahead, voters could have to deal with three separate ballot papers using three different voting systems. The confusion could lead to an increase in spoilt ballot papers...


The argument is “With a close Assembly election in the offing, any increase in spoilt ballot papers could skew the results in marginal seats like Cardiff Central or Llanelli, which in turn could affect who forms the next Welsh Government.”
The ERS wants the UK Government to delay commissioner elections in Wales by a year and instead combine the police poll with the vote to choose new councillor.


It states: “Whilst far from ideal, ERS Cymru argues combining police and council polls would be the least disruptive option and avoid additional costs of holding police elections separately.”

Describing how a handful of votes could have changed the shape of the Assembly, the ERS states: “In 2011, Labour won Cardiff Central by 38 votes, beating the Liberal Democrats.”


It argues that if the Lib Dems had won Cardiff Central the fourth regional seat on the South Wales Central regional list would have gone to Plaid Cymru, leaving Labour fewer than half the Assembly’s 60 seats.
Call to scrap PCCs

Chris Elmore, Labour’s candidate in the Vale of Glamorgan, said: 

“As Yvette Cooper said on her visit to the Vale of Glamorgan, Labour will scrap PCCs and use the money to invest in frontline policing. The Tories ignored Labour’s warnings about the introduction of police and crime commissioners and spent millions adding unnecessary bureaucracy while slashing police numbers.
“Only a Labour Government will stop a clash by scrapping PCCs and invest the money saved back into our police forces.”
Only a Labout |Government  well any Goverment that is not Tory led would be truthful






Plaid Cymru Westminster leader Elfyn Llwyd said: 

It makes no sense whatsoever to hold two polls on the same day. Plaid Cymru believes that police and crime commissioners should be abolished.
“It will be an unnecessary election for an unnecessary and wasteful role. The Assembly election is crucial for Wales and the run-up period must not be marred by confusion.”

That is the point why should our Assembly Elections be used to vote for PCC who most people don't want or vote for/

Steve Brooks, director of the Electoral Reform Society Cymru, said:

 “Combining the Assembly and police elections will be a car-crash for Welsh democracy. People could be expected to deal with three different ballot papers and three different ways of voting.
"This will inevitably lead to confusion and we’ll see a sharp rise in the number of spoilt ballot papers, meaning some people’s votes won’t count.
“And with a number of tight electoral races across Wales, any increase in spoilt ballot papers could skew results in marginal seats.
'It is avoidable'
"With the government and opposition on 30 seats a piece, and opinion polls showing the 2016 Assembly elections will be close, every vote counts.
"Any local result that’s skewed by this clash, could impact on the overall national result. However, it is avoidable.”

However there could be  a argument that a large number of spoilt ballots for PCC could be seen that voters are expressing a view that they should be abolished .

Kirsty Williams, leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, prehaps makes the most valid point  when she said  

[We want] to scrap police and crime commissioners, and will push for this in Government after the next election. However, if we are forced to continue with this system then it’s clear there would be a need to avoid a clash with the Assembly elections to avoid numerous ballots under three different voting systems.
“We would support delaying the PCC elections for an additional year for this very reason. Holding them in May 2017 to coincide with the expected local council elections would be a less confusing combination, but would still avoid the additional costs that would be incurred by holding them on a different day.”
Remember that the Assembly uses two ballot papers one vis First Pat the Post and another via a list system  and the PCC uses the supplementary vote system, with voters marking the ballot paper with their first and second choices of candidate.

So there will be three Ballot Papers with three different voting systems. 

The problem is of Wales will not be taken into the equation for PCC elections as its not happening in Scotland and and may suit Tory MPs in England .

The ERS is right to call attention to this but I not sure that it is up to them to decide "Who is the right or wrong person to be elected