Are Welsh Schools really failing in comparison with England?

BBC Wales report that 

Pupils in Wales continue to lag behind the rest of the UK in English lessons despite improvements, say inspectors.
More teaching of practical writing skills is needed, says a report by Estyn, which found a significant minority of schools have pupils who do not read or write well enough.
There are concerns about the standards of spelling, grammar and punctuation in English classes.
But the majority achieved good standards in spoken English.
Pupils aged seven to 14 are also still struggling to play catch-up with their peers in other parts of the UK, the education inspection body says.
Children can write stories in class but are struggling to fill in job applications.
The report, which makes 11 recommendations for improvement, also found:

• Pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds do not achieve as well as others and this gap widens as pupils progress from primary to secondary school

• There is still too much poor quality marking of pupils' work

• Teachers do not provide enough guidance on how to improve and progress is not tracked well enough

• Schools need to continue to focus on raising standards of pupils' independent writing and provide challenging work in English to stretch all pupils

• Girls continue to do better than boys, although the gap in boys' and girls' performance has steadily narrowed

The inspections took place in a sample of 20 primary and secondary schools.

BBC Wales  also provide us with a convenient Bar Graph 



But before I make a judgement I would like to know 

Is just  20 schools a large enough sample to provide us with a accurate assessment to compare with others?

There are 22 Councils  areas in Wales. So that less than one School  in each Local Authority are 

Just one failing school on this number could bring down the number significantly.

How comparable is the Estyn Inspection with those in England? Are the criteria the same?

Could it be more or less vigorous than in England? 

We need these answers because we need to access the data correctly.

But even if it was that Wales was doing Better than appears . Maybe its not comparison with England or Scotland we need but a commitment to constantly improve.

Alas Smith and Jones on merging Councils.

One wonders if there has been collaboration between  First Minister Carwyn Jones  and  Shadow Welsh Secretary Owen Smith over Council mergers here.

On Friday Carwyn told BBC Wales he thinks some councils are incapable of improving education in their area.

He said that with six local education authorities (LEAs) in special measures it is impossible to have faith in the delivery of education across Wales.

Mr Jones argued it gives further urgency to the need to cut the number of councils from the current 22.

A cynic might think that our beloved First Minister is shifting blame anterior 15 years of failed Labour Education Policy in its tenure at the Assembly.

Meanwhile Owen Smith clearly affected with  the over the top BBC Wales Over the Top recent coverage for the Commonwealth Games has urged council leaders to "pick up the baton" and take the lead in reforming local government.

Mr Smith says councils should be trusted to drive any possible mergers.

In a report published in January, a Welsh government commission recommended the number of councils should be cut from 22 to 12 or fewer.

The issue will be high on the agenda when local government leaders meet for their annual conference this week.

The Williams Commission said public services could be delivered more efficiently by fewer councils and suggested a new local authority map for Wales.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

It has to be driven by local government itself because that's the way in which we will end up with the best fit between local services and local people”

Owen SmithShadow Welsh Secretary

Labour's Mr Smith said councils were aware of the need for reform, but insisted it had to be a collaborative process and "not something this imposed from above".

"It has to be driven by local government itself because that's the way in which we will end up with the best fit between local services and local people," he said.

"I'm saying to local government leaders: 'It's up to you, pick up the baton now and challenge yourselves to renew and refresh yourselves'."

The Labour MP for Pontypridd added: "They need to be trusted to get on with it, but they need to get on with it."

Eel

Well  I don;t trust the Labour Party and I therefore don't trust our local council

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Welsh Unitary Authorities
	Control	Con	Labour	LibDem	UKIP	Green	Plaid	Others
Blaenau Gwent	Lab		33					9
Bridgend	Lab	1	39	3			1	10
Caerphilly	Lab		50				20	3
Cardiff	Lab	7	46	16			2	4
Carmarthenshire			22				28	24
Ceredigion			1	7			19	15
Conwy		13	10	5			12	19
Denbighshire		9	18	1			7	12
Flintshire		8	30	7			1	24
Gwynedd			4	2			37	32
Isle of Anglesey	Ind		2				12	16
Merthyr Tydfil	Lab		24		1			8
Monmouthshire		19	11	3				10
Neath Port Talbot	Lab		52				8	4
Newport	Lab	10	37	1				2
Pembrokeshire	Ind	3	9	1			5	42
Powys	Ind	10	7	8				48
Rhondda Cynon Taff	Lab	1	60	1			9	4
Swansea	Lab	4	49	11				8
Torfaen	Lab	4	30				2	8
Vale of Glamorgan		11	21		1		7	7
Wrexham		5	23	4			1	19
Wales Totals		105	578	70	2	0	171	328

Clearly with Labour running  so many of our councils it is in their interest to merge councils like Caerphily where Plaid have challenged with Blaneau Gwent  and Torfaen for Instance given them a almost secure hegemony. 

The report has concluded, as a minimum, the following local authorities should merge:

Isle of Anglesey and Gwynedd
Conwy and Denbighshire
Flintshire and Wrexham
Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire
Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend
Rhondda Cynon Taf and Merthyr Tydfil
Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan
Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and Torfaen
Monmouthshire and Newport

Mind you can anyone see Labour Cabinet members who will see their post and the lucrative pay increments passing to someone in another council ?

The idea that we simply merge existing boundaries and not have a rot and branch review is ridiculous it may be the simplest option

But Democracy is not simple and both Alas Smith and Jones should be leading it not,  passing the buck for others to sort out.

Lets consider a complete change  ensuring the maximum number people are near the hub of local government and at the same time if we are to change the ward boundaries copy Scotland and introduce STV.

Leaving it up to those who are running our current councils is a no brainier,

Blair: It's Not My Fault".

Yesterday's  Guardian  a paper which in its failure to actively scrutunise  the Blair Government's military adventurism tells us

In a passionate essay published on his Faith Foundation website, the former prime minister said it was a "bizarre" reading of the situation to argue that the US-British invasion of Iraq had allowed the growth of Sunni jihadist groups such as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis), whose fighters have swept through towns and cities north and west of Baghdad over the past week.
"We have to liberate ourselves from the notion that 'we' have caused this. We haven't. We can argue as to whether our policies at points have helped or not: and whether action or inaction is the best policy. But the fundamental cause of the crisis lies within the region not outside it.
"We have to put aside the differences of the past and act now to save the future," says Blair, adding that force may be necessary. "Where the extremists are fighting, they have to be countered hard, with force."

  In a defence of his actions in Iraq, Blair attacked as "extraordinary" any notion the country would be stable if Saddam Hussein had stayed in power.

"The civil war in Syria with its attendant disintegration is having its predictable and malign effect. Iraq is now in mortal danger. The whole of the Middle East is under threat."
He said it was inevitable that events across Iraq had raised the arguments over the 2003 war. While admitting that no weapons of mass destruction had been found in Iraq, he said: "What we now know from Syria is that Assad, without any detection from the west, was manufacturing chemical weapons. We only discovered this when he used them. We also know, from the final weapons inspectors' reports, that though it is true that Saddam got rid of the physical weapons, he retained the expertise and capability to manufacture them.
"Is it likely, knowing what we now know about Assad, that Saddam, who had used chemical weapons both against the Iranians in the 1980s war – that resulted in over a million casualties – and against his own people, would have refrained from returning to his old ways? Surely it is at least as likely that he would have gone back to them?

 And yet he can't see that his disabling of the  Arab World has any responsibility for the likely Civil war in Iraq , The rise of Islamic Fundamentalism in that region and the misery of the ordinary civilians .

And Blair maybe should as where Isis who seemed to have spiled over from Syria got its weapons

... the Syrian rebels themselves say they are already armed and trained by US in the use of sophisticated weapons and fighting techniques, including, one rebel said, "how to finish off soldiers still alive after an ambush." The interviews are the latest evidence that after more than three years of warfare, the United States has stepped up the provision of lethal aid to the rebels, as PBS notes "it appears the Obama administration is allowing select groups of rebels to receive US-made anti-tank missiles."

The commander of the unit also told Ali that their American contacts had asked him to bring 80 to 90 members of his unit to Ankara for training.
One of the fighters said they received three weeks of training in how to conduct ambushes, conduct raids and use their weapons. They also said they received new uniforms and boots.
“They trained us to ambush regime or enemy vehicles and cut off the road,” said the fighter, who is identified only as “Hussein.” “They also trained us on how to attack a vehicle, raid it, retrieve information or weapons and munitions, and how to finish off soldiers still alive after an ambush.”

 More Here

Iraq faces Civil War and falling into fundamentalist control
Afghanistan will erupt in to war between various fractions and be very lunch in the same position as when the Russians left
The Arab Spring as turned to Winter and in Egypt the experiment with democracy saw the wrong people (as far as the West was concerned) so with barley a whimper from Western leader the Military are now back in charge.
Libya  is decided into fractions who are hostile to each other and is likely to fall to fundamentalist controlI always thought the problem with Blair (as with Thatcher) was not that they lie but their almostMessianic belief that despite the evidence they are right.

Blair  was always determined to see his place in History and more importantly wright it himself

But I very much doubt History wil absolve him or for that matter the Guardian the supposed Left- Liberla paper which in itself must examine why they couldn't se this coming.

Why was Ed Miliband the only one to be Sunburnt?

I must admit I fell sorry for Ed Miliband considering the implications of what wold have happened if the had refused to pose with the Back our Boys Sun Edition. which 
Earlier in the week he decided to pose with a picture of the Sun as part of their World Cup promotion.


David Cameron did it. Nick Clegg did it. So Ed clearly thought that he needed to as well. and maybe as the Free Edition  which ironicaly wasn't  delivered in Merseyside    where the Sun is stil  a toxic brand after Hillsbourgh  he or his advisers may have thought it would not be controversial.

But of  course, as soon as the picture was circulated the media  turned to Liverpool where  groups representing victims and survivors of the 1989 tragedy expressed anger at Mr Miliband's actions, one describing them as an "absolute disgrace".

And a Labour councillor in Liverpool, Martin Cummins, has resigned from the party, suggesting Mr Miliband had "listened to unwise counsel in associating himself, and our party, with this degrading publication".

Mr Cummins said: "Seeing Ed promoting the Sun has rocked me to my core."

But apart from some criticism of Nick Clegg the  other Partyl  leaders seed to have managed to get of lightly
Nick Clegg seems it OK for him Well outside of Merseyside  anyway

And Cameron.


What would the headlines have been if Miliband had declined?

Ed Refuse To Back England

I'm not sure how poor Ed could have managed to avoid this car crash but
The Labour leader insisted that he had participated in the photo shoot to show his support for the England football team.

."In a statement, a spokesman for the Labour leader said: "Ed Miliband was promoting England's bid to win the World Cup and is proud to do so.

"But he understands the anger that is felt towards the Sun over Hillsborough by many people in Merseyside and he is sorry to those who feel offended.

So now he has managed to ruin his relationship with and prehaps damaged any chance of getting Rupert Murdoch( who if he thought Labour might win the next general election) behind him.

No matter what your poltics you got to fel sorry for the poor man who would have lost whatever he had done.

Latest Opinion Poll from BBC Wales

The latest  opinion poll taken just after the European Elections  indicates.Labour will struggle to win a majority at the next assembly election and UKIP will win its first seats in Cardiff Bay, 

The survey, commissioned by BBC Wales, shows 

Constituency Vote

Labour on 36%

Plaid Cymru on 24%,

Conservatives 19%

Ukip on 13%

Liberal Democrats. 5%

Regional Vote

Labour on 38%

Plaid Cymru on 22%,

Conservatives 21%

Ukip on 10%

Liberal Democrats. 4%

This would in theory see the make up of the Assembley as

Labour  28 -2

Plaid Cymru on 14 =43

Conservatives 11 - 3

Ukip on 13% 5 + 5

Liberal Democrats. 2 - 3

Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “Labour are still in the lead but their vote share for both General and Assembly elections has been sliding in Wales for about the last 18 months. Compared to other polls Labour are down in terms of support for the National Assembly elections – on the constituency vote they are down about 10 percentage points over the last year to 15 months.
“The polls until fairly recently were showing Labour a long way ahead of their opponents; now it’s starting to look rather more competitive.”
On Ukip, he said: “I think the big question for Ukip is whether their current levels of support are sustainable – I have to say, given this poll was done fairly soon after the European elections I actually would have expected them to do a bit better, I would have expected them to get a little bit more of a bounce in support, so it’s a fairly good poll for Ukip but not an outstandingly good one.
“The other interesting thing we see in this poll is increasing support for Plaid Cymru.
“Plaid have been slowly edging up in the polls in Wales over the last year or so, and this poll sees them make another move forward, and while Plaid are not yet in a position where they are challenging for first place, this is much the best level of support Plaid have seen in a poll for National Assembly elections for several years, and that’s clearly encouraging for them.”
The poll was commissioned by BBC Wales. ICM Research interviewed 1004 adults aged 18+ by telephone on May 22-June 1. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Welsh adults.

Western Mail 13 June 2014

 I agree and also  suspect Ukip may struggle to keep the level of support it has held recently .

The Conservatives would probably be expecting  expect a fall  in support   and may benefit from returning Ukip switchers in the future 

Although this does represent an increase in support  for Plaid they must be wondering why they aren't picking up more votes in the Regional Top Up vote .

For the LibDems it is looking increasingly gloomy and if they were to lose  their only Consituency  seat of Brecon and Radnorshire with 4% in the Regional vote they could go down to Zero.

All to play for but if you take the Ukip hype out its probably Plaid wh ar feeling happiest with this poll.

Plaid and The Threat Of Democracy.

Plaid Leader  Leader Leanne Woo as given us a glimse of her vision of a future Wales at University College London Lecture

"It is essential for Wales to find and express its voice as a nation – a participant nation in these islands.
"As a constitutional entity, Wales has found itself trailing behind the other nations of these islands, often having to settle for well below ‘the going rate’ for powers over its own affairs.
"That is evidenced today as the ‘devolution going rate’ set in Scotland is not being matched in pace by that offered by Unionist parties to Wales.
"There is no logical reason for this difference in offering."
She said it was time for the process of devolution to give way to a self-government adding:
"Devolution - which is essentially about power retained - must give way to self-government.
"I propose a model of Welsh self-government where the people of Wales themselves are sovereign.
"In practical terms, the expression and the implementation of the sovereignty of the people should start and end with the people themselves.
"And so this evening, I am able to announce that a Plaid Cymru government in 2016 would seek an agreement with the UK government to implement by Order in Council, the devolution of the Welsh constitution, including the right to hold binding referenda, to the National Assembly for Wales.
"That will formally begin a new era of self-government, and with a Plaid Cymru Welsh Government that would result in a new, written constitution for the Welsh nation and a new relationship between Wales and the British State.
"From that point, Wales would formally be freely associating with the UK government, and it will be the people of Wales themselves who will determine what powers to share with Westminster.
"But I don’t want us as a country to miss out on an opportunity to develop a constitution and the basis for a new way of doing politics.
"I do not recommend the convening of a new commission and I would be eager for the new process to be people-led, not politician-led.

Wales’ constitution should be written and led by the people of Wales."A citizen-led constitution would help us reinvigorate the politics of Wales generally, it would put power back in the hands of the people rather than with a small elite and by coming together we could pool our collective intelligence to build not just the mechanics of government but the basis for a new nationhood."As well as considering powers and competencies, I’d like the process to consider the kind of society we want to build and the kind of communities we want to live in."

Not sure how this will work but clearly the practise of having commissions whose recommendations  then  are ignored has been frustrating.


I am not a great fan of referendums  because it can be over influenced by the Media . But with Information Technology it can be possible to constantly find out out what the people our elected members represent almost on a daily basis 

But as my headline claims this looks like the threat of democracy and for that to happen it will need to convince the people of Wales that they have a say in the future of our Nation.

:
"It is often a misconception – sometimes intentionally peddled by Unionists – that for those of us who support the creation of an independent Wales – that this is somehow at odds with the concept of cooperation with our nearest neighbours.
"Nothing could be further from the truth.
"We support the establishment of an independent Wales in order to join the international community, not to somehow retreat into an inward-looking isolationism.
"Ultimately, Wales’ voice within these islands will be best expressed within the context of partnership and the foundations of that partnership already exist in the form of the British-Irish Council.
"It is my hope to see Wales become a member of that council as an independent state, but one of the strengths of that organisation is that it includes all the nations of these islands regardless of their constitutional status."

Indeed if we are indeed Better Together then this should be as equals finding common purpose and sharing some things which benefits all of us.

"We have all the characteristics of a nation and over the past fifteen years, we’ve begun to develop as a state.
"But as well as treasuring the characteristics that make us a nation, we need also to face up to the obligations and responsibilities of nationhood too.
"The pursuit of independence means seeking the tools to face and make difficult decisions and tough choices.
"Independence is not an end in itself.
"It is the beginning of a period of endless opportunity.
"Above all, independence is normal.
"For too long, independence in the Welsh context has been treated as a pipe-dream as an aspiration so distant it has been seen as unrealistic and unworkable.
"But this evening, I want to elevate the debate and I can reveal that Plaid Cymru will shortly be publishing plans to begin the debate on Wales’ future.
"It will comprise the vision for self-government within the UK that I have already outlined and it will elaborate and map out how an independent Wales would function, the kind of social Wales a Plaid Cymru government would seek to build with the tools of independence."

Of course the devil will be in the details but Plaid may at last be moving on from the period where they have seemingly be locked into the Assembly Settlement and concentrated on simply getting the most out of it.

This has led to the goal of Independence being lost to seeking piecemeal transfer of powers that has after 15 years means that Wales is still far behind the position of the Northern Ireland Assembly let alone Scotland at the start of the formation of the devolved legislatures.

Whatever happens in Scotland in September the UK will never be the same again but unless all the Parties wake up we will  continue to be dependent on what will be a growing Anglo-Centric Westminster  which may be what Adam Evans in his Click on Wales  article was pointing to.

But at the end of the day it should not be the future of Scotland that shapes our vision of how Wales is governed  and for that to happen we must intensify the debate .

Leanne Wood as indicate she might just be doing so and linking it a peoples led  democracy its at least something to ponder.