Latest Opinion Poll from BBC Wales

The latest  opinion poll taken just after the European Elections  indicates.Labour will struggle to win a majority at the next assembly election and UKIP will win its first seats in Cardiff Bay, 

The survey, commissioned by BBC Wales, shows 

Constituency Vote

Labour on 36%

Plaid Cymru on 24%,

Conservatives 19%

Ukip on 13%

Liberal Democrats. 5%

Regional Vote

Labour on 38%

Plaid Cymru on 22%,

Conservatives 21%

Ukip on 10%

Liberal Democrats. 4%

This would in theory see the make up of the Assembley as

Labour  28 -2

Plaid Cymru on 14 =43

Conservatives 11 - 3

Ukip on 13% 5 + 5

Liberal Democrats. 2 - 3

Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “Labour are still in the lead but their vote share for both General and Assembly elections has been sliding in Wales for about the last 18 months. Compared to other polls Labour are down in terms of support for the National Assembly elections – on the constituency vote they are down about 10 percentage points over the last year to 15 months.
“The polls until fairly recently were showing Labour a long way ahead of their opponents; now it’s starting to look rather more competitive.”
On Ukip, he said: “I think the big question for Ukip is whether their current levels of support are sustainable – I have to say, given this poll was done fairly soon after the European elections I actually would have expected them to do a bit better, I would have expected them to get a little bit more of a bounce in support, so it’s a fairly good poll for Ukip but not an outstandingly good one.
“The other interesting thing we see in this poll is increasing support for Plaid Cymru.
“Plaid have been slowly edging up in the polls in Wales over the last year or so, and this poll sees them make another move forward, and while Plaid are not yet in a position where they are challenging for first place, this is much the best level of support Plaid have seen in a poll for National Assembly elections for several years, and that’s clearly encouraging for them.”
The poll was commissioned by BBC Wales. ICM Research interviewed 1004 adults aged 18+ by telephone on May 22-June 1. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Welsh adults.

Western Mail 13 June 2014

 I agree and also  suspect Ukip may struggle to keep the level of support it has held recently .

The Conservatives would probably be expecting  expect a fall  in support   and may benefit from returning Ukip switchers in the future 

Although this does represent an increase in support  for Plaid they must be wondering why they aren't picking up more votes in the Regional Top Up vote .

For the LibDems it is looking increasingly gloomy and if they were to lose  their only Consituency  seat of Brecon and Radnorshire with 4% in the Regional vote they could go down to Zero.

All to play for but if you take the Ukip hype out its probably Plaid wh ar feeling happiest with this poll.