Plaid's top six seats.

Plaid's highest hope in this election is six seats


So what are the chances?

Arfon

General Election 2010: Arfon[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Plaid Cymru	Hywel Williams*	9,383	36.0	+3.9
	Labour	Alun Pugh	7,928	30.4	−3.5
	Conservative	Robin Millar	4,416	16.9	+0.5
	Liberal Democrat	Sarah Green	3,666	14.1	−1.7
	UKIP	Elwyn Williams	685	2.6	+0.7
Majority			1,455	5.6	+7.4
Turnout			26,078	63.3	+5.1
	Plaid Cymru gain from Labour		Swing	+3.7

At first this looks vulnerable to Labour but it was a new seat taking in a number of Labour voting areas around Bangor and was actually a nominal Plaid gain  Hywel Williams should have the advantage of incumbency here.



Carmathen East and Dinefwr

General Election 2010: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr[9][10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Plaid Cymru	Jonathan Edwards	13,546	35.6	−10.2
	Labour	Christine Gwyther	10,065	26.5	−1.8
	Conservative	Andrew Morgan	8,506	22.4	+8.7
	Liberal Democrat	William Powell	4,609	12.1	+2.4
	UKIP	John Atkinson	1,285	3.4	+1.7
Majority			3,481	9.2	−8.3
Turnout			38,011	72.6	+1.8
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	−4.2

Another Plaid Seat that looks vulnerable  but Jonathan Edwards was anew candidate  in 2010 and now has the advantage of incumbency along with the Labour candidate being a member of the council which has evoked some negative  (at the  very least ) publicity 


Ceredigion

General Election 2010: Ceredigion[23][24]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Democrat	Mark Williams	19,139	50.0	+13.5
	Plaid Cymru	Penri James	10,815	28.3	-7.6
	Conservative	Luke Evetts	4,421	11.6	-0.8
	Labour	Richard Boudier	2,210	5.8	-6.3
	UKIP	Elwyn Williams	977	2.6	N/A
	Green	Leila Kiersch	696	1.8	-0.5
Majority			8,324	21.8
Turnout			38,258	64.8	-3.2
	Liberal Democrat hold		Swing	+10.6

2010 saw Mark Williams massively increase his majority and it who have appeared to be a safe sate LibDem seat but that has al changed and Mark can't hope for a strong student vote. Plaid candidate Mike Parker has a strong profile so although it appears a big hurdle Plaid have high hopes here.

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

General Election 2010: Dwyfor Meirionnydd[4][5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Plaid Cymru	Elfyn Llwyd	12,814	44.3	-6.4
	Conservative	Simon Baynes	6,447	22.3	+8.1
	Labour	Alwyn Humphreys	4,021	13.9	-7.8
	Liberal Democrat	Stephen Churchman	3,538	12.2	+1.3
	Independent	Louise Hughes	1,310	4.5	+4.5
	UKIP	Frank Wykes	776	2.7	+0.3
Majority			6,367	22.0
Turnout			28,906	63.7	+2.3
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	-7.3

Plaid have a new candidate here and so lose the incumbency  factor  but Liz Saville-Roberts should have no problem and giving Plaid its first female MP something that the party has ben lacking for so long

Llanelli

General Election 2010: Llanelli[16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Nia Griffith	15,916	42.5	−4.5
	Plaid Cymru	Myfanwy Davies	11,215	29.9	+3.5
	Conservative	Christopher Salmon	5,381	14.4	+0.7
	Liberal Democrat	Myrddin Edwards	3,902	10.4	−2.5
	UKIP	Andrew Marshall	1,047	2.8	N/A
Majority			4,701	12.5
Turnout			37,461	67.3	+3.4
	Labour hold		Swing	−4.0

Another seat that Plaid had hopes for in 2010 but this is seat where the Plaid challenger Vaughan Williams h has put a huge amount of work into  and may have a higher profile than the sitting MP .this will be the Jewel in the crown if its a god night for Plaid.

Ynys Môn

General Election 2010: Ynys Môn[6][7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Albert Owen	11,490	33.4	−1.3
	Plaid Cymru	Dylan Rees	9,029	26.2	−4.9
	Conservative	Anthony Ridge-Newman	7,744	22.5	+11.5
	Liberal Democrat	Matt Wood	2,592	7.5	+0.7
	Independent	Peter Rogers	2,225	6.5	−8.2
	UKIP	Elaine Gill	1,201	3.5	+2.5
	Christian	David Owen	163	0.5	+0.5
Majority			2,461	7.1
Turnout			34,444	68.8	+1.3
	Labour hold		Swing	+1.8

I have mentioned incumbency in most of the seats and nowhere is this evidence  clearer. not since  1951 has the incumbent been defeated despite  going  from Liberal-Labour-Tory -Plaid-Labour .  Albert Owen has survived  Plaid onslaughts before . Will he do it one more time?

In al these seats there is a interesting factor of Ukip  which of the parties will their vote switching in any number  to that party. In theory Plaid should be the least affected but you never know.

England deserve better than Miliband's Red Tories as well.

Ed Miliband confirmation that his refusal to work with the SNP in a hung parliament also applies to Plaid Cymru. and that he would prefer to go into opposition rand hand power to the stories will be a betrayal of those  who intend to vote Labour in the belief they will end the the Tory led Austerity program even against the evidence that they intend to carry on with it even if its in may be a tad milder.

Plaid leader Leanne Wood has said she could do a deal to put Labour in power even if the SNP was not involved.

She said Mr Miliband was irresponsible to rule out an SNP deal, claiming it could "open the door" to the Tories.

But t perhaps it will be the people of England who will vote Labour for the above reason who will be betrayed the most.

After all we in Wales amd Scotland wil at least have some MPs who will speak out against a Tory Austerity program with Authority and a mandate to end it/

Miliband has abandoned that mandate 

Not surprising that after the first leaders debate English people were tweeting that they wished they could vote for the SNP or Plaid.

Hopeful there wil be more than  one Green MP  in Caroline Lucus in Brighton bur only Norwich South, currently held by the Lib Dems with a wafer-thin majority over Labour, but where the Greens took 14.9% in 2010. and  Bristol West, where the Lib Dem incumbent,  Stephen Williams, is likely to struggle because of the fall-off in the student vote.

Whether its Blue or Red Tories in Number 10 next week the People of England deserve better than the three main parties who are becoming indistinguishable and all are right wing economically

A strong Greens and  for Mebyon Kernow will be a parties like Yorkshire First  given observer  status by the European Free Alliance there may other parties which could be allies in a Progressive decentralised Bloc  

In Scotland and to some extent here in Wales there may be some hope for the future  for those who have been stamped on by the Tory/Lib Dem coalition where Labour stood by tutting.

Who will stand up for the victims of Austerity in England.

When will Cameron or Miliband be probed over possible "Grand Coalition"?

Has Ed Miliband real said if being prime minister meant a deal with the SNP then there would be no Labour government.

Miliband dismissed the prime minister’s warnings when audience member Simon Wilkinson asked him why the Labour party was misleading the country over a deal with the SNP.


The Labour leader then ruled out a coalition or a less formal “confidence and supply” arrangement.

In most parliamentary democracies, members of a parliament can propose a Motion of Confidence or Motion of No Confidence in the government or executive. The results of such motions show how much support the government currently has in parliament. Should a motion of confidence fail, or a motion of no confidence pass, the government will usually either resign and allow other politicians to form a new government, or call an election.

Similarily Most democracies require an appropriation bill or something similar to be passed by parliament in order for a government to receive money to enact its policies. If an appropriation bill fails, the government loses control of the money supply, and is therefore virtually powerless. The failure of a supply bill thus has the same effect as the failure of a confidence motion. In early modern England, the withholding of funds was one of parliament's few ways of controlling the monarch.

With now mandatory 5 year Parliaments it means that this is probably how we could face another election . However it could mean another party forms a government

Miliband added:

“

Let me be plain. We’re not going to do a deal with the Scottish National party; we’re not going to have a coalition, we’re not going to have a deal.


“Let me just say this to you – if it meant we weren’t going to be in government, not doing a coalition, not having a deal, then so be it.

“I am not going to sacrifice the future of our country, the unity of our country, I’m not going to give in to SNP demands around Trident, around the deficit, or anything like that.

 So one thing is clear both the Tories and Labour are committed to renewing Trident and reducing the deficit by continuing the Austerity program.In reality Milibsnd is merely saying that there will be no deals relating to the Queens Speech a vote by vote arrangement is stil on the cards and just as in our Assembly and in Previous Scottish Parliaments the Budget for instance may well see minority Parties agreeing to back it for concessions .

However if  Ed Miliband really  beleives  if being prime minister meant a deal with the SNP then there would be no Labour government.why haven't journalists raised the question of a grand Tory-Lab alliance ,

After all with Trident and the Deficit being a red line between Miliband and the SNP or presumably Plaid  or the Greens . His natural ally here are the Tories.