Plaid's top six seats.

Plaid's highest hope in this election is six seats


So what are the chances?

Arfon

General Election 2010: Arfon[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Plaid Cymru	Hywel Williams*	9,383	36.0	+3.9
	Labour	Alun Pugh	7,928	30.4	−3.5
	Conservative	Robin Millar	4,416	16.9	+0.5
	Liberal Democrat	Sarah Green	3,666	14.1	−1.7
	UKIP	Elwyn Williams	685	2.6	+0.7
Majority			1,455	5.6	+7.4
Turnout			26,078	63.3	+5.1
	Plaid Cymru gain from Labour		Swing	+3.7

At first this looks vulnerable to Labour but it was a new seat taking in a number of Labour voting areas around Bangor and was actually a nominal Plaid gain  Hywel Williams should have the advantage of incumbency here.



Carmathen East and Dinefwr

General Election 2010: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr[9][10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Plaid Cymru	Jonathan Edwards	13,546	35.6	−10.2
	Labour	Christine Gwyther	10,065	26.5	−1.8
	Conservative	Andrew Morgan	8,506	22.4	+8.7
	Liberal Democrat	William Powell	4,609	12.1	+2.4
	UKIP	John Atkinson	1,285	3.4	+1.7
Majority			3,481	9.2	−8.3
Turnout			38,011	72.6	+1.8
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	−4.2

Another Plaid Seat that looks vulnerable  but Jonathan Edwards was anew candidate  in 2010 and now has the advantage of incumbency along with the Labour candidate being a member of the council which has evoked some negative  (at the  very least ) publicity 


Ceredigion

General Election 2010: Ceredigion[23][24]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Democrat	Mark Williams	19,139	50.0	+13.5
	Plaid Cymru	Penri James	10,815	28.3	-7.6
	Conservative	Luke Evetts	4,421	11.6	-0.8
	Labour	Richard Boudier	2,210	5.8	-6.3
	UKIP	Elwyn Williams	977	2.6	N/A
	Green	Leila Kiersch	696	1.8	-0.5
Majority			8,324	21.8
Turnout			38,258	64.8	-3.2
	Liberal Democrat hold		Swing	+10.6

2010 saw Mark Williams massively increase his majority and it who have appeared to be a safe sate LibDem seat but that has al changed and Mark can't hope for a strong student vote. Plaid candidate Mike Parker has a strong profile so although it appears a big hurdle Plaid have high hopes here.

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

General Election 2010: Dwyfor Meirionnydd[4][5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Plaid Cymru	Elfyn Llwyd	12,814	44.3	-6.4
	Conservative	Simon Baynes	6,447	22.3	+8.1
	Labour	Alwyn Humphreys	4,021	13.9	-7.8
	Liberal Democrat	Stephen Churchman	3,538	12.2	+1.3
	Independent	Louise Hughes	1,310	4.5	+4.5
	UKIP	Frank Wykes	776	2.7	+0.3
Majority			6,367	22.0
Turnout			28,906	63.7	+2.3
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	-7.3

Plaid have a new candidate here and so lose the incumbency  factor  but Liz Saville-Roberts should have no problem and giving Plaid its first female MP something that the party has ben lacking for so long

Llanelli

General Election 2010: Llanelli[16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Nia Griffith	15,916	42.5	−4.5
	Plaid Cymru	Myfanwy Davies	11,215	29.9	+3.5
	Conservative	Christopher Salmon	5,381	14.4	+0.7
	Liberal Democrat	Myrddin Edwards	3,902	10.4	−2.5
	UKIP	Andrew Marshall	1,047	2.8	N/A
Majority			4,701	12.5
Turnout			37,461	67.3	+3.4
	Labour hold		Swing	−4.0

Another seat that Plaid had hopes for in 2010 but this is seat where the Plaid challenger Vaughan Williams h has put a huge amount of work into  and may have a higher profile than the sitting MP .this will be the Jewel in the crown if its a god night for Plaid.

Ynys Môn

General Election 2010: Ynys Môn[6][7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Albert Owen	11,490	33.4	−1.3
	Plaid Cymru	Dylan Rees	9,029	26.2	−4.9
	Conservative	Anthony Ridge-Newman	7,744	22.5	+11.5
	Liberal Democrat	Matt Wood	2,592	7.5	+0.7
	Independent	Peter Rogers	2,225	6.5	−8.2
	UKIP	Elaine Gill	1,201	3.5	+2.5
	Christian	David Owen	163	0.5	+0.5
Majority			2,461	7.1
Turnout			34,444	68.8	+1.3
	Labour hold		Swing	+1.8

I have mentioned incumbency in most of the seats and nowhere is this evidence  clearer. not since  1951 has the incumbent been defeated despite  going  from Liberal-Labour-Tory -Plaid-Labour .  Albert Owen has survived  Plaid onslaughts before . Will he do it one more time?

In al these seats there is a interesting factor of Ukip  which of the parties will their vote switching in any number  to that party. In theory Plaid should be the least affected but you never know.