Red (White and Blue) Ed

 In his Speech to Labour's Scottish Conference Ed Miliband attacked Alex Salmond's desire to "split up" Britain, and insisted: "We are one United Kingdom."

The Labour leader attacked Scotland's First Minister over rising unemployment - which he said was the biggest challenge of all - but also on his links with media tycoon Rupert Murdoch. .

He said: 

"We must reject attempts to divide our country by ideology or geography. We are not left-wing Scotland and right-wing England, we are one United Kingdom."He insisted that families, businesses and pensioners who were struggling in difficult economic times shared the same concerns, regardless of where they lived.

On Murdoch, he would have a point .Except for the fact that until Murdoch switched (and it appears he was reluctant to do so) to supporting Cameron's Conservative. Labour were hand in glove with News International and bent over backwards to please them. Salmond should not be so close towards Murdoch but Ed Miliband would be bending over backwards if he thought Murdoch and News Intentional would switch back to supporting them once the  Leveson has ended and people lose interest.

But Miliband's Unionist stance puts and end to the Clear red water that Rhodri Morgan proposed for Welsh Labour as opposed to Blair's New Labour.

 It seems that Miliband thinks that even Scottish Labour who have much more autonomythan "Welsh Labour" which is not much, cannot pursue clear red water from Cameron's ConLibs because he believes  "We are not left-wing Scotland and right-wing England",


He seems to think just because the majority in England elected Tory MPs . We in wales and Scotland  should accept it to preserve the union even though the majority in the two Nations voted for Left of Center Parties (Labour,Plaid and SNP.

He may be right in that " businesses and pensioners who were struggling in difficult economic times shared the same concerns, regardless of where they lived". But devolution has already meant that Wales and Scotland have the right to approach things differently and this means that we are not seeing for example the move to privitisation of the NHS which is clearly behind the agenda of the reforms in England.

There has been some comments from the Liberal Left in England claiming that Scottish Independence will leave the English almost permanently under Tory rule. And this they state  is a reason to oppose it.

But we spent 15 years from 1987-1982 under a Tory government taht bot h Wales and Scotland rejected. Why should we suffer (and boy did we suffer) because of right wing England.?

But if in 1997 we in Wales and Scotland had rejected devolution we would now be facing the right wing "reform" that are being forced on the English. We have chosen to take a different approach and though I know that both the Labour goverment  in Wales and the SNP should do more to improve the concerns of the poorest in our counties . The thought that as Millband seems to be suggesting we should not seek our own way and accept rule from a right wing Westminster Government  in order to preserve the UK chills me.

Miliband is also being disingenuous in his claim "We are one United Kingdom".

I believe its still Labour Party policy for an "United Ireland" which may be why Miliband  prefers to ay United Kingdom  the Union.  Becuase it is Labour Part policy to break up the Union though I suspect most members do not know it. Perhaps  when  the debate begin on the Scottish Referendum Labour politicians such as Miliband who say they wish to prefer the United Kingdom should be asked "If this includes the six counties? and then if you can " divide our country by ideology or geography" in Ireland.Why not Wales or Scotland?



"

BBC Poll sees call for more Welsh powers.

The latest BBC poll  seems broadly in line with an earlier one conducted by ITV/Yougov

When asked . Which one of these statements comes closest to your view? The result from he 1000 respondents was......

• Wales should become Independent, separate from the UK 7%
• The Welsh assembly should have more powers than it currently has 36%
• The powers it currently has are sufficient and it should remain as it is now 29%
• The Welsh Assembly should have fewer powers than it currently has 2%
• Wales should remain part of the UK and the Assembly should be abolished 22%
• None these?Don't Know 4%

When asked 


You may have seen or heard that within the next two or three years there is likely to be a referendum on independence for Scotland. If Scotland does become an independent country that is separate to the UK, which one of the following statements would come closest to your view about Wales?

• Wales should become Independent, separate from the UK 12%
• The Welsh assembly should have more powers than it currently has 30%
• The powers it currently has are sufficient and it should remain as it is now 20%
• The Welsh Assembly should have fewer powers than it currently has 2%
• Wales should remain part of the UK and the Assembly should be abolished 23%
• None these?Don't Know 4%

So there does not seem much appertite for Independence  but less be honest since the formation of the Assembly in 1999. There has been very little emphasis on the call for Independence especially from Plaid . Who have spent the last 13 years in a comfort Zone and have done their best to remain in a comfort Zone and on very occasions before last years referendum on extended powers and even then played down the argument that was not enough.

All this may change if either Elin Jones or Leanne Wood win the Parties leadership election and there should be an unmitigated campaign towards Independence and any support for further powers  especially if Scotland says NO and Cameron carries out his promise of devolving more powers. Plaid should argue that of will support any increase in powers for the Welsh Assembly or the creation of a Welsh Parliament equal to that of Scotland but that should be only a step to the inevitable despite the polls. Plaid should concentrate on moving  the 30-36 who seek more powers their way and pussyfooting as they have for the last 13 years will not do so,

To return to the polls . There appears to be at least one anomaly in the response from the 80 people who took part in Rhondda Cynon Taf where the highest number for

•  Wales should remain part of the UK and the Assembly should be abolished 35%.

This from a area which has been highly supportive in the  past

Of course 80 respondents is statically low and my skepticism on this part of the poll is reinforced . When of the respondents  in R.C.T  to

Do you speak Welsh?

• 3% claimed fluency
• 43 No more than a few words
• 51 Not at all

Which for an area with a large number of Bilingual Schools seems very odd.

P.S the BBC link to the poll (Inn Adobe reader) no longer seems to be there . If you want to email me glynbeddau@gmail.com. I shall try and sen you a copy

The Story of Wales

There an excellent article on the new BBC Wales series the Story of Wales by Labour MP Ian Lucus wh laments the apparent  reluctance for the BBC to show the programme UK wide .

The article is somewhat spoiled by Wales Homes's Introduction that compares it with Jeremy Paxmans new series on Empire which was shown in the rest of the UK at the same tinme last night.

Wales Home states that.

BBC Wales’s new flagship history won’t be shown elsewhere in the UK, and the programme it displaces, exploring the British Empire, won’t be shown in Wales. Both decisions are baffling and wrong.

The Paxman programme is  to be shown tonight at 9:00 PM where it replace  a Horizon episode.

But the main thrust of Ian Lucas article has a point and although some comments indicate the "Story of Wales might be shown in BBC 4 at a later date . There is no conformation that this will happen

By contrast Niel Oliver's  A History of Scotland was first broadcast in November 2008 on BBC One Scotland and later shown UK-wide on BBC Two during January 2009.

I share Ian Lucus's praise for Norman Davies The Isles, which charts the history of the British Isles which does not revert to an anglo-centric  history in which the Celtic nations are only bit players.Read it and wonder why others have not taken this approach.

As far as the series itself the first programme was OK. But i feel an opportunity was lost in not having a eminent Welsh historian to not only write it but to present it.

Like the Neil Oliver series (He's an archaeologist not an historian) the programme might begin to look like it was written by  a committee and as Insidious points out may be more about Huw Edwards  (whose father was just the sort of historian to do write and present such a series) rather than analysis of Welsh History. Edwards does a fine job I just would prefer a greater analysis which a presenter who actually wrote the words may have given.

In some ways my argument is supported by the series title "The Story of Wales" an horrible title which may be a bilingual pun on Hanes but in English just sounds twee.

I will continue to watch the programme and home that it makes a contribution.

I feel that BBC(Wales) may just have missed a opportunity not only in failing to insure a greater airing for this series   But perhaps we need a series with more gravitas presented and written by someone who make us sit up . John (Bwlchlan) Davies maybe.

The Pri(n)ce over the Water plays it tactically.

The Western Mail and others including Gareth Hughes and Darren Hill at Wales Home  have made much of
The Pri(nce) Over the Water's call for  tactical  in  for Plaid Cymru leadership election (Peter Black also has a view on this but who cares what he thinks?). The premiss they give us is that this is a move to stop Elin Jones being elected as leader.

In his open  letter to the party faithful  Adam Price states...

This election will probably be decided by second preference votes. For those of you who are supporting Dafydd with your first vote, I would urge you to consider supporting Leanne with your second. I would ask Leanne’s supporters to consider lending their second vote to Dafydd. To every member, whoever they support, I would urge you not to let your second vote go to waste. It is of paramount importance that every member is involved in every part of this process.

I don't really see this as a move to block Elin Jones more of one to ensure that once D.E.T is eliminated in the first round his second preference vote  largely  goes to  Leanne Wood.


All the evidence of the campaign so far is that DET is well behind  Jones and Wood and if you look at the campaign websites Leanne appears to be ahead of Elin in the quality of endorsements.

Elin Jones Campaign Website

Leanne Wood Campaign Website

Dafydd Elis Thomas Campaign website

As far as the Welsh Blogs are concerned Leanne is well ahead with the support of Miserable Old Fart, Syniadau and Blog Menai. Three of the most influential in the Welsh Blogasphere  and of course they are joined by National Left in their support for Leanne( though I doubt I have much influence).


Some of the speculation over Adams call seem to be that he's looking to his own future. Gareth Hughes writes that ...

So why was the story placed? Well, clearly, there is a feeling abroad that Elin Jones is the candidate that has to be stopped. Have the other two made a deal to stop her? Politics are full of marriages of convenience. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time in the sordid world politics that a deal had been struck.
And could there also be worry that if Elin Jones won, she might just be a successful and gritty leader. Now, if that happened there wouldn’t be any pressure for her to move aside in a few years time. In such circumstances there just might not be a coronation for the venerable Price. Perish, the thought. 

I can't really see this whoever wins the Leadership, will seek to do so for at least two elections and unless Price's plan is to stand in the next Assembly election hope that Plaid will not make gains ,thereby triggering another leadership contest . It seems to me he as missed the Bus for a decade. He might well decide that Academic life in the USA will suit him more . A position where he can act as éminence grise to Leanne Wood making (as he does now) the occasional yet important commentary on the state of Wales without having the  inconvenience of actually placing himself up for election In which case he will have passed from fresh young politician to elder statesman in an astonishan;y short time

  

Jenny Willott Talks the Talk but.....

It is no secret that I hold the  Libdem blog  Freedom Central in contempt and refer to it as Subordinate Central or sometimes when they have really  infuriated me so much that I  error use the term to them Subordinate. "Centre" .

For the most part the contributions seem to come form Party Activist who post their hypocritical commentaries anonymously  thereby giving the impresssion that this is a Independent Blog and not an attack one of the Party.

Some time ago I reproduced a piece by the blogger Insidious and make no apologies for repeating it.

But not all the articles are by Party Hacks, a recent one is by Jenny  Willott LibDm MP for Cardiff Central.

In a Piece entitled  Getting young people earning or learning  she  says..

I welcome the announcement by Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg of £7.2 million to get young people in Wales who are not in employment, education or training (NEET), earning or learning again.
As part of Nick Clegg’s Youth Contract, the Coalition Government will, for the first time, target funding through tailored support on a payment-by-results system to 16 and 17-17-year-olds with no GCSEs at A* – C who are at the highest risk of long-term disengagement.

If this is true then its welcome (But I thought Clegg' announcement was about England

Still as Willot writes ,..

Sitting at home with nothing to do when you’re so young can knock the stuffing out of you for years. It is a tragedy for the young people involved and a ticking time bomb for the economy and our society as a whole. This problem isn’t new, but in the current economic climate we urgently need to step up efforts to ensure some of our most troubled teenagers have the skills, confidence and opportunities to succeed.

So why did Willott vote  to abolish the Education Maintainence Allownce  in England?

She "honourably"  resigned her post as parliamentary aide to Chris Huhne shortly before a vote to increase tuition fees as recommended by the Browne Review, in order to keep her pledge to constituents that she would vote against any increase in fees.

Like a number of LibDems Wilott depends from the Student population in Cardiff for her seat. But of course she doesn't depend on  the sort of people who would be on EMA who are to young or  so alienated they do not vote and it was an English Measure (The West Lothian Question Again), which did not directly affect Welsh Teenagers?

The major problem for youth unemployment is simply lack of jobs and this allows employers who would in the past take raw ineperianced staff to simply advertise for those with experience. Take a look at adverts for employment for Administration Jobs they nearly all ask either for 2 years experience or call for knowledge in a particular field.

The current government and  that of the previous  campaign of blaming lack of skills, is a smokescreen to disguise the major problem of lack of job opportunities.In particular in Manufacturing and Heavy Industries which those in the past who had not gone on to Further and Higher Education went to where the way taught "on the job". They may have not been brilliant jobs bit where full time and they earned a living.

If there are no jobs then placements either voluntary or compulsory will lead to young people having completed such a placement which they may well have enjoyed feeling rejected and exploited.And that is placements where you "May" be taught real skills in an office environment for instance .

How much training does it take to stack shelves at Tesco's?

Courting Plaid Supporters: Labour or Tory?

Since becoming freelance from ITV Gareth Hughes, has provided us with a insightful and entertaining Blog which is always worth viewing.

However and perhaps when you start from a position of praise there is always a however is latest piece on the  Welsh Labour Party conference  makes a I cannot see.

It is not so much is analysis of the conference itself but is assessment of Carwyn Jones overtures to Plaid Cymru supporters

Gareth goes on to make the claim that ..

The Tories started to eat into Plaid Cymru’s vote by targeting the more conservative Plaid. The strategy was greatly helped by Plaid Cymru trying to position itself as a left wing party. Whilst Plaid were trying to out left Labour the Tories were blatantly mopping up the some of Plaid’s more traditional conservative voters. Indeed they were so successful that at the last Assembly election Plaid were pushed into third place and Tories became the Official Opposition"

Where can he say Plaid tried to   "position itself as a left wing party"as opposed to previous Assembly elections? From  where I stood, this was the most centralist campaign Plaid had fought for decades  with only a few candidates taking a progressive left stand. The Party stood in the middle of the road and was run over by the Labour /Tories juggernauts

In my view Plaids campaign last year and its poor showing in the General Election of 2010 (In which the SNP also failed to live up to expectations) was partly due to a concentration on Westminster politics

However in the Assembly despite the vote on increased powers in the previous March in which they could have spent part of the build up working on law measures to put in their 2011 manifesto. Plaid offered very little to excite the welsh voters and suffered because they had been in  coalition with Labour for a good part of the previous Assembly  found in difficult to crticise the record of that  previous government.

ties		Constituency (First past the post)					Regional (Additional member system)					Total seats
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Total	+/−	%
	Labour	401,677	42.3	+10.1	28	+4	349,935	36.9	+7.2	2	±0	30	+4	50.0
	Conservative	237,388	25	+2.6	6	+1	213,773	22.5	+1.1	8	+1	14	+2	23.3
	Plaid Cymru	182,907	19.3	–3.1	5	–2	169,799	17.9	–3.1	6	–2	11	–4	18.3
	Liberal Democrats	100,259	10.6	–4.2	1	–2	76,349	8.0	−3.7	4	+1	5	–1	8.3

s		Constituency (First past the post)					Regional (Additional member system)					Total seats
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Total	+/−	%
	Labour	314,925	32.2	−7.8	24	−5	288,954	29.6	−6.9	2	+2	26	−4	43.3
	Plaid Cymru	219,121	22.4	+1.2	7	+2	204,757	21.0	+2.3	8	+1	15	+3	25.0
	Conservative	218,730	22.4	+2.4	5	+4	209,153	21.4	+2.3	7	−3	12	+1	20.0
	Liberal Democrats	144,450	14.8	+0.6	3	0	114,500	11.7	−1.0	3	0	6	0	10.

In the election Plaid lost  36,214 votes . The Tories gained  18,658 Labour gained 86,752 and the Libdems  lost 44,191. I suspect the majority of the 18,658 Tory voters came from those who had not voted in the 2007 election.

In individual Constituencies  there might have been a few Tories who voted Plaid previous;y as an anti Labour vote  but even in the one where it might be suspected Plaid voters switched to the Tories the figures don't add up 

Assembly Election 2011: Aberconwy[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Janet Finch-Saunders	6,888	34	+3.6
	Plaid Cymru	Iwan Huws	5,321	26.2	-12.3
	Labour	Eifion Wyn Williams	5,206	25.7	+3.9
	Liberal Democrats	Mike Priestley	2,873	14.2	+4.9
Majority			1,567	7.7
Turnout			20,288	45.1

Assembly Election 2007: Aberconwy
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Plaid Cymru	Gareth Jones	7,983	38.6
	Conservative	Dylan Jones-Evans	6,290	30.4
	Labour	Denise Idris Jones	4,508	21.8
	Liberal Democrats	Euron Hughes	1,918	9.3
Majority			1,693	8.2
Turnout			20,699	46.9

From this it could be argued Plaid voters switched more to Labour or the LibDems rather than the Tories . So whilst I can't totally discount Gareth Hughes argument I suspect that in reality only a few people who voted Plaid previously switched to the Tories in 2011and even then the their support was on lukewarm.

The majority  who switched went "Home to Labour" and this was because Labour with thier "Standing up for Wales" campaign slogan presented themselves as not only a Left of Centre  party as opposed to a right of centre Westminster coalition  government  bit also as "Party of Wales".

Even those who are on the right of the majority of Plaid supporters id  not largely subscribe to Thatchers vision and I suspect very few subscribe to Cameron@s and Nick Clegg's.

It will remain to be seen if Plaid can use Independence as their  Unique selling Point (USP) but I doubt if a move to the centre or right will gain many Tory Votes. The future lies in showing Labour voters that their values can be better severed by  a Welsh Parliament inCardif rather than a the Tories in Westminster

I wouldn't go home if I was a Labour supporter.

The Sort of Homes you get if you "Go home to Labour"

In his speech to the the Welsh Labour conference First Minister Caewynb Jones, told the assembled delegates that voters had "come home to Labour" at last May's assembly election.

Well that's true enough. I saw the evidence in my own village of Beddau where in sharp  contrast to 2010 General Election there were plenty of evidence of support as I stated at the time.
But this was largely  a result of the election of a ConLib coalition government and this give impetus to those traditional voters to return to a Party in which they  had been disillusioned with after 13 years of a Labour Government that done little to address the problems of working class families even to the extent that they hardly used the term Working Class any more  and even when the ConLibs began their onslaught on the poorest in our society . Preferred  to concentrate on what the new UK leader called the "Squeezed middle classes".

And yet Labour was to exploit the fact that the Consevatives represented something akin to the 'ffydd Saeson' - 'faith of Saxons which the Welsh were to label the Anglican Church during the Reformation and this was part of the reason they did not  accept the protestant religion until they were able through Nonconformity to create their own form of Christianity.

But Labour stance in Wales is a false one.Its Welsh Identity is base on it not being 'ffydd Saeson' . But it does not mean that they have not  betrayed the people who have supported them so loyally foe nearly a centenary in Wales.

In address to the conference Carwyn Jones reached out to Plaid Cymru supporters, saying they "deserve better. In this he has a point . Plaid Supporters do deserve better but they do need to back a political party that in 13 years of Government at Westminster behaved like pale-blue Tories or 13 years of inactivity in the Welsh Assembly have adopted a Laissez-Faire approach to government and even when the Welsh electorate give them the powers to make even moderate law changes in Wales, cannot even use these. 

The failure of Plaid to work on this and harness the votes of those who feel betrayed by Labour and yet in Carwyn's terms came Home last May because they saw them as the alternative to the ConLibs has except for a few By-elections been one that Plaid major problems.

In this they may just have began to make a change. The election of Leanne Wood  as Plaid Leader next Month just be the spark that unites those who seel Independence and those who also look to a new progressivism yet radical change to approach to needs of all of Wales but in particular those who have been ignored by the major parties.  

In this National Left urges Plaid Members to vote for Leanne as the best option for the Party but the Nation.