Sunday, 24 April 2011

Sun appears to be shining on Labour in Ponty at least.

Pontypridd has as always been  safe Labour seat.Well up till  last year when the Libdem candidate Mike (Bandwagon) Powell  ran them close.

 General Election 2010:   Pontypridd
Party         Candidate             Votes        %        ±%
Labur        Owen Smith         14,220     38.8    -15.4
Lib            Mike Powell        11 ,435    31.2    +11.2
Cone        Lee Gonzalez        5,932      16.2     +4.6
 Plaid        Ioan Bellin            2,673      7.3      -3.7
UKIP       David Bevan         1,229       3.4       +0.8
SLP          Simon Parsons      456         1.2       +1.2
Christian   Donald Watson     365         1.0       +1.0
Green       John Matthews      361         1.0    
Majority  2,785 7.6
Turnout  36,671 63.0% -0.2
 Labour  hold Swing -13.

This was an impressive performance by the Libdems and Bandwagon in particular who has been nursing the constituency fo a long time  and increased his pressure on Labour from the 2007 Assembly Election making Pontpridd a marginal seat

Party       Candidate         Votes   %
 Labr      Jane Davidson    9,836  41.8
 Lib        Mike Powell       6,489  27.6
 Plaid     Richard Grigg     4,181  17.8
 Cons    Janice Charles     3,035  12.9
Majority 3,347 14.2
Turnout 23,541 41 %

But the signs are that "Bandwagon" is not going to repeat his onslaught . Labour have got their act together and as you can se in thee stronghold of Beddau have been getting their supporters showing their colours something they manifestly failed to do in the last two elections.

It's slightly deceptive, they seem to have concentrated on the main route through the Village and these are after all traditional Labour voters  but these are also people who may well have failed to vote last time.

But it looks as if Labour "We can protect you from the Con/Libdem cuts is working.though it prehaps shows a weakness in that  their attraction is that that they are not the Con/Libdem coalition.

What of the other Parties the Tories have never really campaigned in the Consistency and Plaid have somehow lost a deal of it influence here.

But they both may well actually Bbnefit from the perceived increase in Labour support.; Because if votrs find as I do Mike Bamdwagon's negative campaigning distasteful you might have been tempted to vote Labour to keep him out.

Have look on his take on the constituency on  Subordinate Central where he attacks the Labour candidate but not his Polcies and makes the usual claim that he is an outsider.whilst also making a veiled attack on Mick Antoniw's integrity.

Bamdwagon is also responsible for one of the most dubious Bar charts ever produced by the LIbdems his campaign last year.

So I expect Labour to win comfortably and the only real interest is who will came second. A year is certainly a long time in politics.

Assembly Election 2011: Pontypridd
Party        Candidate
Labour    Mick Antoniw
Libdem    Mike Powell
 Cons      Joel James
 Plaid      Ioan Bellin
 Ind        Ken Owens

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