Ed Towesend should have gone out on April 1st.
Nice try Ed but it is much more likely that the Libdem are in for a hammering on May 5th, and it also seems that the majority of voters lost will be returning to Labour . In this we seem to have a similar repeat of 1987 and 1992 UK elections with the demise of the Lib-SDP alliance where the majority of votes lost in 1983 returned to Labour.
Votes in Wales for General Election
Party 1983 1987 1992
Lab 39.5 45.1 49.5
Con 31.0 29.5 28.6
Lib/All 23.2 17.9 12.4
Plaid 7.8 7.3 9.0
It does seem that when people change from Labour to Libdem then they eventually go back and other parties do not benefit. Indeed it seems for party like Plaid it the core working class Labour vote that they must seek to attract and the idea that those who deserted Labour in Pontypridd, Methyr, Wrexham and Newport East for instance are left leaning people with a conscious may well be mistaken and that they are more likely to be those who are swayed by the media attacks on that Party. For if they were so wooried about Labours swing to the right then they would have surely done so in the Blair years.
What ever the case it does seem from the opinion poll in Cerdigion run by Aber students that the Libdem swing vote seems to be going almost wholly to Labour .However Plaid's Elin Jones should benefit from this.
Nevertheless the campaign has only just official started and Plaid should receive a boost from the fact that people will realise this is a Welsh electin and not for Westminster. As happened in 2007 where the first ITV poll showed Plaid well behind the Tories.