It seems that there is a very good reason why the Tories (and maybe Jeremy Corbyn) are reluctant to let Parliament and the rest of us know the impact of Brexit on the economy.
The regional Brexit impact assessment figures that the Tory government were trying to hide have been leaked, and they spell disaster, especially for the North East, North West, West Midlands, and Northern Ireland.
The Brexit assessment looked at the regional impact of three different Brexit scenarios, a Single Market Brexit, a free trade deal, and a "no deal" reversion to World Trade Organisation rules.
In every single region it turns out that "no deal" is by far the most damaging option, ranging from a 3.5% fall in the London economy to an astounding 16% collapse in the North East.
Wales would suffer a 9.5% hit to GDP if the UK leaves the European Union without an exit deal, according to leaked figures from a UK Government analysis of the consequences of Brexit.
The nation would see a 5.5% reduction in GDP even if the UK leaves with a free trade deal under this assessment – and there would still be a 1.5% blow if the country stayed in the single market.
The predicted losses are understood to cover a 15-year period. That's another 15 years of Austerity.
The effect on jobs, businesses, livelihoods and property values of a 9.5%% drop in GDP would be immense.
The leak comes as Theresa May and senior cabinet ministers meet to hammer out an agreed end-goal for the Brexit negotiations.
Plaid Cymru MP Hywel Williams said the...
Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said:
Swansea West Labour MP Geraint Davies said:
To some extent I sympathise with the Conservative viewpoint as someone who supports independence for Wales and if we were to have a referendum the UK government would produce statistics to claim that it would prove disastrous.
However I believe the very nature of Independence will stimulate the Welsh economy. Indeed I believe it is the only way it is the only way that we can do so.
Though it will be far more difficult outside the EU.
The difference between me and the Hard Brexit supporters is that I envisage a progressive outward looking Wales, whilst the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg seems to beleive it will end up with a new British Empire.
The truth however is that they are going to sell the UK to USA and Chinese interest and we can only wonder which one of the two we will become little more than vassals states.
Any Chinese Trade deal will see the total end of our steel industry , whilst the US are likely to demand access to health providers and the privatisation of at least part of the NHS,
Scotland and Wales both would seek to remain in the EU or join quickly after independence.
It would be ironic if the result of Brexit would ruin our economy to such an extent that we were considered too poor to join.
The regional Brexit impact assessment figures that the Tory government were trying to hide have been leaked, and they spell disaster, especially for the North East, North West, West Midlands, and Northern Ireland.
The Brexit assessment looked at the regional impact of three different Brexit scenarios, a Single Market Brexit, a free trade deal, and a "no deal" reversion to World Trade Organisation rules.
In every single region it turns out that "no deal" is by far the most damaging option, ranging from a 3.5% fall in the London economy to an astounding 16% collapse in the North East.
Wales would suffer a 9.5% hit to GDP if the UK leaves the European Union without an exit deal, according to leaked figures from a UK Government analysis of the consequences of Brexit.
The nation would see a 5.5% reduction in GDP even if the UK leaves with a free trade deal under this assessment – and there would still be a 1.5% blow if the country stayed in the single market.
The predicted losses are understood to cover a 15-year period. That's another 15 years of Austerity.
The effect on jobs, businesses, livelihoods and property values of a 9.5%% drop in GDP would be immense.
The leak comes as Theresa May and senior cabinet ministers meet to hammer out an agreed end-goal for the Brexit negotiations.
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Plaid Cymru MP Hywel Williams said the...
“These sobering statistics lay bare the devastating impact a hard Brexit would have on our economy. Just as Plaid Cymru has argued all along, remaining in the single market would be the most favourable option if we are to defend Welsh jobs and industries.
“Yet again, Wales is set to be worse off than the UK as a whole as a result of disastrous decisions taken by the Tories and unopposed by Labour in Westminster. Members of all parties should be uniting in the national interest to present the resounding case for Wales to remain in the single market and customs union.”
Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said:
“This is a damning outlook for Britain. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK.
“The Government need to start being clear what they are fighting for. They are still keeping no deal on the table despite how crippling it would be to the regional economy.
“People did not vote to make themselves poorer. They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit.”
Swansea West Labour MP Geraint Davies said:
“Wales has been hard hit by austerity – with public sector pay freezes, cuts in services and a benefit squeeze on the most vulnerable. Now Brexit, with reduced trade and us paying for the EU Divorce Bill, means vital infrastructure projects in South Wales like rail electrification and the Swansea Tidal Lagoon are being cut...Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Andrew RT Davies, said:
“These ground-breaking leaked documents show that the government know the true cost of Brexit, but have tried to keep us in the dark.”
"We were told - in no uncertain terms - that the mere act of a vote to leave the European Union would lead to economic disaster so why should we take these forecasts any more literally?
"That's why it's time for the merchants of doom and gloom to give project fear its last rites and get on with the job of delivering the will of the people."
To some extent I sympathise with the Conservative viewpoint as someone who supports independence for Wales and if we were to have a referendum the UK government would produce statistics to claim that it would prove disastrous.
However I believe the very nature of Independence will stimulate the Welsh economy. Indeed I believe it is the only way it is the only way that we can do so.
Though it will be far more difficult outside the EU.
The difference between me and the Hard Brexit supporters is that I envisage a progressive outward looking Wales, whilst the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg seems to beleive it will end up with a new British Empire.
The truth however is that they are going to sell the UK to USA and Chinese interest and we can only wonder which one of the two we will become little more than vassals states.
Any Chinese Trade deal will see the total end of our steel industry , whilst the US are likely to demand access to health providers and the privatisation of at least part of the NHS,
Scotland and Wales both would seek to remain in the EU or join quickly after independence.
It would be ironic if the result of Brexit would ruin our economy to such an extent that we were considered too poor to join.
1 comment:
The UK govt's own figures merely confirmed what we already knew - brexit of any kind is going to hurt the welsh economy and a hard 'no deal' brexit will be catastrophic for the welsh economy, slowing welsh growth down by as much as 10 percent.
And a few years down the line after brexit has really began to bite and the subject of welsh independence is raised guess what it's opponents will say - 'but wales is to poor to be independent'.
That's why i'm puzzled when some misguided souls in the welsh indy camp proclaim their support for brexit - the damage to the welsh economy that will result from brexit will be used by opponents of welsh self government to level the old charge 'but wales could never manage on its own'.
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