No one can claim that the Tories have not had a very good run since the General Election,
An appearance of incompetence which seems to be endemic should see Labour shooting ahead of
Mrs May's party but the two parties seem to be running neck and neck in the opinion polls.
Whether it is because Tory voters can't bring themselves to vote for the party of Jeremy Corbyn as some did for Tony Blair is open to question.
However there may be a simpler reason in that the Tories are seeing more ex Ukip voters turning to the party seen as backing Brexit
Take this weeks clutch of Local Authority By-elections as shown by Harry Hatfield over at Political Betting.
Hulton on Bolton (Lab defence)
Result: Con 1,455 (49% +16% on last time), Lab 1,179 (40% +3% on last time), UKIP 190 (6% -18% on last time), Lib Dem 67 (2% unchanged on last time), Green 52 (2% -1% on last time)
Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 276 (9%) on a swing of 6.5% from Lab to Con
Despite a rise of 3% the Tories gained 16% votes as Ukip lost almost the same total percentage
Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope on Milton Keynes (Con defence)
Result: Con 1,604 (53% +15% on last time), Lab 749 (25% +12% on last time), Lib Dem 672 (22% +7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -24%, No Green candidate this time -10%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 855 (28%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con (19.5% swing from UKIP to Con)
The absence of a Green candidate muddies my argument but some what but it does appear the collapse of the Ukip vote aided the Tories
Downhall and Rawreth on Rochford (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Lib Dem 794 (77% +17% on last time), Con 237 (23% +6% on last time) (No Lab candidate this time -8%, no local Independent candidate this time -15%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 557 (54%) on a swing of 5.5% from Con to Lib Dem
No Ukip vote to gain here but the LibDems seem to have won the absent Labour vote.
Throop and Muscliff on Bournemouth (Ind defence)
Result: Independent (Wilson) 533 (31%), Con 511 (30% +1% on last time), Lab 402 (24% +13% on last time), Independent (Lucas) 117 (7%), Lib Dem 107 (6% no candidate last time), Green 33 (2% -7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -15%) Independent HOLD with a majority of 22 (1%)
Total Independent vote: 650 (38% +3% on last time)
Swing: 1% from Con to Ind
Hard to work this out but the collapse of the Ukip vote is clear.
Can we really extrapolate into a General Election? Probably not. Remember the Ukip vote had already collapsed in last years General Election and there may not be any more Kipper votes to fight for.
But just as Scottish politics seems to have shifted from Independistas largely on the left versus Unionist largely on the right . England and Wales may well be moving to Remainers. Center left and Liberal ( With Plaid in Wales) versus Leavers Hard Left and the Right.
Where this leaves Labour with a leader whose on the Brexit side and much of his Parliamentary Party backing Remain is uncertain.
They may well be hoping that Brexit will be settled or seen as inevitable by the next election and enough of the Kippers who have turned to the Tories vote Labour to give them victory.
As a party Ukip seem finished bit it appears their legacy may well linger for years.
An appearance of incompetence which seems to be endemic should see Labour shooting ahead of
Mrs May's party but the two parties seem to be running neck and neck in the opinion polls.
Whether it is because Tory voters can't bring themselves to vote for the party of Jeremy Corbyn as some did for Tony Blair is open to question.
However there may be a simpler reason in that the Tories are seeing more ex Ukip voters turning to the party seen as backing Brexit
Take this weeks clutch of Local Authority By-elections as shown by Harry Hatfield over at Political Betting.
Hulton on Bolton (Lab defence)
Result: Con 1,455 (49% +16% on last time), Lab 1,179 (40% +3% on last time), UKIP 190 (6% -18% on last time), Lib Dem 67 (2% unchanged on last time), Green 52 (2% -1% on last time)
Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 276 (9%) on a swing of 6.5% from Lab to Con
Despite a rise of 3% the Tories gained 16% votes as Ukip lost almost the same total percentage
Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope on Milton Keynes (Con defence)
Result: Con 1,604 (53% +15% on last time), Lab 749 (25% +12% on last time), Lib Dem 672 (22% +7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -24%, No Green candidate this time -10%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 855 (28%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con (19.5% swing from UKIP to Con)
The absence of a Green candidate muddies my argument but some what but it does appear the collapse of the Ukip vote aided the Tories
Downhall and Rawreth on Rochford (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Lib Dem 794 (77% +17% on last time), Con 237 (23% +6% on last time) (No Lab candidate this time -8%, no local Independent candidate this time -15%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 557 (54%) on a swing of 5.5% from Con to Lib Dem
No Ukip vote to gain here but the LibDems seem to have won the absent Labour vote.
Throop and Muscliff on Bournemouth (Ind defence)
Result: Independent (Wilson) 533 (31%), Con 511 (30% +1% on last time), Lab 402 (24% +13% on last time), Independent (Lucas) 117 (7%), Lib Dem 107 (6% no candidate last time), Green 33 (2% -7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -15%) Independent HOLD with a majority of 22 (1%)
Total Independent vote: 650 (38% +3% on last time)
Swing: 1% from Con to Ind
Hard to work this out but the collapse of the Ukip vote is clear.
Can we really extrapolate into a General Election? Probably not. Remember the Ukip vote had already collapsed in last years General Election and there may not be any more Kipper votes to fight for.
But just as Scottish politics seems to have shifted from Independistas largely on the left versus Unionist largely on the right . England and Wales may well be moving to Remainers. Center left and Liberal ( With Plaid in Wales) versus Leavers Hard Left and the Right.
Where this leaves Labour with a leader whose on the Brexit side and much of his Parliamentary Party backing Remain is uncertain.
They may well be hoping that Brexit will be settled or seen as inevitable by the next election and enough of the Kippers who have turned to the Tories vote Labour to give them victory.
As a party Ukip seem finished bit it appears their legacy may well linger for years.
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