Boundary Commission proposes to cut Welsh seats even further.

One thing is clear from the latest proposal  of the Boundary Commission is that they may have listened in some places but not in Wales.

Across the United Kingdom Nation 2010/15/17 seats 2011 review[29] 2018 review[30] Electorate Allocation Change Average size Electorate Allocation Change Average size England * 532 38,332,557 500 –32 76,665 37,294,494 499 –33 74,738 (Isle of Wight) 1 110,924 2 +1 55,462 105,448 2 +1 52,724 Northern Ireland 18 1,190,635 16 –2 74,415 1,243,369 17 –1 73,139 Scotland * 57 3,873,387 50 –7 77,468 3,842,736 51 –6 75,348 (Orkney and Shetland) 1 33,755 1 — 33,755 33,229 1 — 33,229 (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) 1 21,837 1 — 21,837 20,887 1 — 20,887 Wales 40 2,281,596 30 –10 76,053 2,181,841 29 –11 75,236 Total 650 45,844,691 600 −50 76,408 44,562,440 600 −50 74,270 * Excluding the protected island areas

Wales will join England in being the only Nation to see a drop from the previous proposal though that is because the Isle of Wight wil not be divided in two.

Of course as an Independista  I would prefer not to to send any MPs to Westminster and recognise that that the majority there now do not put Wale's interest first.

But with only 29 MPs Wales will be ignored (if its possible even more).

The new Boundaries will see  some rather large constituencies

 

The Wasting Mule tells us that

Under the new proposals, the number of constituencies in Cardiff would reduce from four to three, while the three seats in the Swansea local authority area would go down to two.
Newport would have one seat instead of the present two. An expanded Torfaen constituency would take in parts of the current Monmouth and Newport West seats. A new Monmouthshire seat would take in most of the current Monmouth seat and part of Newport East.
In the Valleys, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney would take in a significant part of the Rhymney Valley currently in the Caerphilly seat, while Caerphilly would absorb parts of Islwyn and Newport West. Blaenau Gwent would increase in size to include part of the current Islwyn constituency. There would be new seats of Cynon Valley and Pontypridd, Rhondda and Llantrisant, and Ogmore and Aberavon. Neath would expand and include some wards from the current Aberavon seat.
The western part of Vale of Glamorgan would join with Bridgend, while the eastern part would have a seat of its own together with Penarth.
Llanelli would grow by absorbing part of the existing Gower seat, while Carmarthen would become a constituency on its own.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire would form another new seat, while Ceredigion would expand to include North Pembrokeshire.
North Wales would see a new constituency called Ynys Mon a Fangor, comprising Anglesey and Bangor. A new seat of Gwynedd would be created, as would one called Conwy and Colwyn.
There would be new seats of Flint and Rhuddlan, an expanded Alyn and Deeside and a larger Wrexham. Another new seat would cover South Clwyd and North Montgomeryshire , while there would also be a seat of Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery.

The Commission’s final proposals will be submitted by October 2018, when there will be votes in Parliament.
There has been speculation that they may fail to get through, especially with the Conservatives having lost their majority.

Already Tory  Montgomery  has indicated he could vote against the proposals 

He writes

......Now I do accept that there is a case for some equalisation of constituency sizes. In fact, a review is long overdue. I just don’t think it’s sensible or rational to review on the basis of 600 constituencies rather that the current 650.  Especially at a time when numbers in the House of Lords continue to rise into the 800s! Also, I concede that I cannot reasonably argue that the number of Welsh MPs should remain at 40 when the same constituency size as currently exists in England would result in 33 Welsh MPs. There should be two changes to the legislation. Firstly, the reduction should be from 40 to 33 (not 29) to reflect average size of constituencies across the UK. And the ‘tolerance’ between number of electors per constituency should be more than 5%. (8% perhaps). If we’re asking Boundary Commissioners to agree new boundaries, let’s give them the power to make recommendations as sensible and sensitive as possible.
Dare say some might suggest I’m being difficult or unreasonable. Well, let’s look at things from where I’m standing - which is in the ancient constituency of Montgomeryshire. Montgomeryshire has existed as a constitutional entity for around 500 yrs. I’ve been involved in public life for over 40 yrs, and have always represented Montgomeryshire (Council, Welsh Assembly and Parliament). Have fought elections as “The Montgomeryshire Man”. I still use Montgomeryshire as my address, despite it officially being Powys. The current proposals consign historic Montgomeryshire to the dustbin of history, carving it up into three to make up the numbers in surrounding constituencies. What am I supposed to think.
Of course Bethan asked me if I intended to vote against the proposals when they come forward at the end of 2018. I declined to answer. I want to argue my corner over this with Government. If I say now that I’m voting against, I lose all influence on the debate. It’s what happens. Ok, it would win some favourable publicity, ensuring I make headlines rather than maybe make a difference. But what I have said is that if these proposals are adopted, I will not stand for Parliament again.

It may well depend on the DUP who could be pleased that thier allocation only drops by one, 

Though it may depend on the Boundaries and if they actually benefit from redrawn  constituencies.

But frankly if we want to cut numbers in Westminster it would be better to cull the 800 members of the House of Lords 

All we can see is a What the House of Lords Committee is suggesting is that instead of the Prime Minister of the day having the power to appoint peers for life, they should appoint them to time-limited peerages of no longer than 15 years. something that AAV goes into detail in his usual precise detail.


In many ways it is up to Labour to come up with changes , They could fight the next General Election on expanding devolution, proportional representation  and replacing the House of Lords with an elected chamber.

But whilst Jeremy Corbyn is on the left he is still part of the Westminster establishment  and is interest is winning power there and if that is done by the current status he will not be too worried.

It is time progressive parties agreed on a common strategy for electoral reform which will make changes that enhance our democratic structures,