Can Plaid prop up the Tories next May?

Wales Online claims that A senior Plaid Cymru AM has refused to publicly rule out his party striking a deal with a Conservative minority government in the National Assembly.


They say  Simon Thomas made it clear that the party has only specifically ruled out a formal coalition with the Tories.

Mr Thomas, AM for Mid and West Wales, said Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood “had ruled out a coalition with the Conservatives”.

The AM, asked if Leanne Wood had ruled out confidence and supply with the Conservatives, said: “There’s all kinds of things that happen after elections.”
He was pressed further on whether Plaid Cymru was ruling out a confidence and supply arrangement with a Conservative minority government.
He said: “We haven’t said anything about that one way or another and I’m not going to add to that. I’m simply not discussing it before an election.”
Mr Thomas, asked to make it clear if it was just a coalition that had been ruled out, added: “That is correct, yes.”


Its a rather odd response

Firstly it accepts the unlikely scenario that the Tories will be either the largest Party in the Assembly after May or they will be second with enough AM's to do a deal with another Party to run the Assembly .

Secondly  it is very unlikely the Tories would accept a situation which would give Plaid almost control of what goes into the Tory government budget
Confidence and supply arrangements are where smaller parties agree to support larger ones remain in government by supporting them in votes of no confidence and in motions that allow ministers to spend money.
Currently there is no such deal with the ruling Labour group in the Assembly – who are in a minority and who have made ad-hoc agreements with parties during the fourth Assembly term.


That could leave the door open for an arrangement where Plaid seeks concessions from the Tories to enable a minority Conservative government to get its spending plans through.



Within an hour of his comments at Plaid's weekly press conference, fellow Plaid AM Rhun ap Iorwerth issued a statement saying that such an arrangement was "inconceivable".

 We made it clear that Plaid Cymru are putting forward a set of policies that we think could take Wales places, that could set Wales off in a different trajectory.
"The people of Wales for that election on May 5 have got to decide which party best represents their ambition for Wales.
"We don't want to talk about coalitions.
"We don't want to go into coalition with Labour, we don't want to go into coalition with the Conservatives.

"Whatever the government after May 6 parties will probably have to work together in order to make major change happen.
"The nature of those collaborations between whichever parties, the extent to which parties have to work together, will be decided by the people of Wales.
"Would we prop up a minority Tory government? That's inconceivable.
"It's clear that Simon Thomas was saying what we've said for weeks and months running into this election, that we don't want to engage in talks about who will work with who after May, for the very reason that we want the people of Wales to decide who they want to govern, on the basis of who has the best ideas to take Wales forward.
"It's clear to me that Simon was once again saying listen, we're not going to answer these questions now.
"Let the people of Wales decide these answers on May 5.
"There are some things like allowing the Conservatives to rule themselves that really is inconceivable."

It does reflect a dilemma for Plaid in that they could be Kingmakers without any taste for backing either House.

With the current Polls predicting a fairly hefty Ukip presence  in the Assembly after May ,any talk of a minority Tory government or a Rainbow coalition which will replace Labour looks unlikely

How many seats of the 60 can a party win in order to form a minority government ?

It must surely have to be  larger those  than currently predicted opposition  for any of the current parties

It seems odd that Simon Thomas didn't use the importunity  however to  that Plaid were aiming to be the governing Part after May whether as the Majority (Unlikely) or as a Minority (possible).

The election of Jeremy Corbyn  to the Labour Leadership proves that you cannot dismiss anything  in Poltics.

Not even a Labour-Tory coalition in Cardiff Bay claiming they are preventing the "Nationalists" from emulating  gaining power like the SNP in Scotland or the possibility of months of an Assembly with no government.