As Harold Wilson said "A week is along tine in politics"
I imagine after thee Scottish Referendum campaign few that within a year the prospect of a second referendum was well off and it would be a generation before it happened again.
Indeed I imagine Labour in particular rubbing their hands with glee and making jokes about the SNP holding their National Conference above a pub in Fife.
To everyone amazement there was Tsunami (rather than a surge) in support and Membership for support for the SNP and al the polls point to them taking the majority of Parliamentary seats on May 7th.
That does not mean that a second referendum is on the card despite former Prime Minister Gordon Brown saying the SNP have a "chilling" plan for a second referendum on independence.
Campaigning in Renfrewshire, he said the nationalists want an SNP vote in the general election in order to "force" a second poll.
Mr Brown said the SNP wanted to win seats in the House of Commons "not to deliver social justice" but to "deliver" chaos and constant crisis".
He referred to a video posted on YouTube last month, understood to have been filmed in November last year, featuring SNP candidate Mhairi Black.
He said:
"There is an SNP candidate in this constituency. She says vote SNP, get SNP MPs at Westminster and we will twist their arms and get another referendum.
"Remember what the SNP used to say - the referendum was once in a generation, then it changed a little to once in a lifetime, then it was once every 15 years and now when you ask Ms Sturgeon about this her answers are all evasion. She cannot give a straight answer to the question."
Responding to Mr Brown's comments, an SNP spokesman said Ms Black had been making the point that
"if the people of Scotland do in the future decide there should be another referendum the Westminster establishment must not stand in their way.
There was nothing in the SNP manifesto about a second referendum but there might be in the Scottish Parliamentary elections next yeat .
If there is a clear majority of SNP MSP and if it was in their manifesto then the people will have spoken . The Unionist mantra of "You've had your chance" will not wash.
The danger for those who seek Independence however may well come from the SNP finding be influential in Westminster and in control in Holyrood a little bit to tempting. and may discourage them from risking another referendum.
14 comments:
Sadly, despite the surge/tsunami in SNP support, a majority in favour of independence has yet to be reached.
The SNP know this and will not risk a second referendum until a Yes vote looks much more likely.
I don't see a referendum on Scottish independence on the cards for a generation or two. There is simply no enthusiasm for it. Don't forget that the Yes vote did not even reach 45% last time. There are new members in the SNP, it is true, before they drift back to Labour. Indeed the SNP might very well serve as the training ground for the Labour MPs and MSPs of the future.
Actually the opinion polls after the referendum are usually showing a tight lead for Scottish independence but it is within the margin of error and very tight.
You are right to stay that a second referendum will happen when Yes solidifies this lead.
Bill Chapman, 9.28, is a Labour Party activist with an agenda. There is majority support for a second referendum within ten years as revealed by more than one, recently held, opinion poll. Support for independence in Scotland is likely to increase as the rotten stench of decay emanating from the British state increases.
The arrogance of this Labour Party hack beggars belief:
"There are new members in the SNP, it is true, before they drift back to Labour. Indeed the SNP might very well serve as the training ground for the Labour MPs and MSPs of the future."
To be fair to Bill he is always polite when making his comments and I welcome an alternative viewpoint.He is probably right that the SNP would risk a second referendum without favorable and consistent polling.But at the start of last year the YES campaign was far behind and I never dreamed they would be so close to winning.
Sorry Bill, you are way out of touch here, and shall I say, a tad over simplistic.
Most ex Labour voters like myself would rather pull their teeth out with rusty pliers than vote Labour again. The lies peddled on behalf of the establishment, on a shared platform with the Tories have shamed them forever.
Read that in the new 'Scottish' Labour mythical constitution as the only thing drifting the way of Labour is tumbleweed.
The people are no longer listening to the pathetic hasbeen- Gordon
Gordon Brown would do well to remember the following :
You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
Hopefully the voters in Scotland will see beyond Gordon's promises and Labour lies.
You know nothing of Scottish politics.
" Indeed the SNP might very well serve as the training ground for the Labour MPs and MSPs of the future."
Who the hell do you think you are?
If unfounded arrogance is politeness, then Chapmen is the politest man in Europe.
You're too nice Glyn. I'm sure our Scottish friends would be more than a little offended by this man's breathtaking hubris.
After the next independence referendum hopefully these Labour MPs will belong to a truly Scottish Labour Party and sit in an independent Scottish Parliment that reflects the aspirations and wishes of the Scottish people.
The existing Scottish branch of Labour UK, in collaboration with their Tory friends have clearly shown where their loyalty lies.
Hopefully Gordon Brown and his like will be a thing of the past.
If the SNP win as many seats in scotland in the general election as all the polls are predicting there will almost certainly be another independence referendum in scotland - and very likely in the next 5 years. Indeed it's harder to argue against there being another referendum in the next 5 years than making the argument for one.
If they carry 50 seats in scotland in this election theres no reason for the snp not to include support for another referendum in their manifesto for next year's scottish parliament elections. Indeed going by the levels of their current support the snp would be crazy to exclude the possibility of another independence referendum from their manifesto.
people need to wake up to the reality that in a few short years time scotland wil be an independent nation and the uk state will cease to exist. what we in wales need to do is come to terms with inevitability, think how it will impact on us - and frame our politics accordingly.
As much as I long for Wales to be free and independent, in less than 2 weeks voters in Wales will vote pro Labour, pro Union and pro austerity and once and for all to be a region of England as the Scots become a nation again.
I’m heartbroken as the dream dies, but at least I know I fought and believed in Cymru till the end.
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