Ashcroft's Vale of Glamorgan poll probably Plaid takes most comfort..

The interesting thing about Lord Ashcrofts's poll for the Vale of Glamorgan is not so much that it is a close run thing between the Tories and Labour but how the other Parties are doing




Its not very clear  But

Conservative 28%
Labour 26%
Lib Dem  3%
Ukip 7%
Plaid 9%
Green 2%



The  210 Electioin saw Alan Cairns from Labour

General Election 2010: Vale of Glamorgan[3][4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Alun Cairns	20,341	41.8	+4.4
	Labour	Alana E. Davies	16,034	32.9	−7.8
	Liberal Democrat	Eluned Parrott	7,403	15.2	+2.0
	Plaid Cymru	Ian James Johnson	2,667	5.5	+0.3
	UKIP	Kevin Mahoney	1,529	3.1	+1.4
	Green	Rhodri H. Thomas	457	0.9	+0.9
	Christian	John Harrold	236	0.5	+0.5
Majority			4,307	8.8
Turnout			48,667	69.3	+0.7
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	+6.1

There is a huge drop in thew Lib Dem vote and perhaps the fact that UKip are only on 7% in the sort of constituency  that we may expect them to well may point to them not achieving anything like the vote it would be expecting in Wales after the Euro Elections

Insomuch as a Party can take much cheer from 9% its Plaid who may take it  from this Poll if they replicated this in the Election it will be the highest vote in the t Vale at a UK Election.

Of course tactical voting may change things especially as its clear that is a true horse race but it may be that Plaid Anti-Austerity message is getting through   and if it was replicated throughout Wales especially in Llanelli it could be a good night for Plaid.

If this Blog does not appear tomorrow it will be because I will be being wheeled  down to an Operating Theatre in the Heath Hospital  for the removal of a tumour on my Pituitary Gland . The second within a year.

I hope to be back within a week