Lib Dems set to lose Cardiff Central in 2015.

I could only find one Welsh seat  in Lord Ashcrofts poll of Marginal seats  but it is  an interesting one nevertheless

Cardiff Central is probably the  only seat in Wales that could be described  as a three way marginal At the last election> Jenny Willot held the seat for that she gained from Labour in 2005

General Election 2010: Cardiff Central[3][4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Democrat	Jenny Willott	14,976	41.4	−8.4
	Labour	Jenny Rathbone	10,400	28.8	−5.5
	Conservative	Karen Robson	7,799	21.6	+12.3
	Plaid Cymru	Chris Williams	1,246	3.4	-0.1
	UKIP	Sue Davies	765	2.1	+1.1
	Green	Sam Coates	575	1.6	+1.6
	TUSC	Ross Saunders	162	0.4	+0.4
	Monster Raving Loony	Mark Beech (A.K.A.- 'The Good Knight Sir NosDa')	142	0.4	+0.4
	Independent	Alun Mathias	86	0.2	+0.2
Majority			4,576	12.7
Turnout			36,151	59.1	+0.0
	Liberal Democrat hold		Swing	−1.4

Now according to Lord Ashcroft she is likely to lose it

The poll  puts thr Parties on

Conservative 16%
Labour 29%
Lib Dem 12%
Ukip 8%
Plaid 6%
Green 6%

Maybe the rel int rest here is the spread of votes  at 6% Plaid and the Greens would have thier largest share (Paltry as it is) in the constituency). and the  8% for Ukip whilst much higher  than 2010 doesn't point to them making huge inroads into Wales.

Its unlikely that Plaid and Green voters will switch to the LIb Dems this time after the latter becomes Toxic when it became bag carriers to the Tories in the Coalition Government.

Of course things can sand  will change in the run up to the General Election .

In Cardiff Central the Lib Dems have had one of the most formidable Constituency organisation in the UK let  alone Wales but I suspect it will a uphill struggle this time.

Iindeedif this was reflected throughout Wales they could Welsh  lose all their Welsh seats  and even Mark Williams sitting on a comfortably Majority  must be nervous

General Election 2010: Ceredigion[16][17]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Democrat	Mark Williams	19,139	50.0	+13.5
	Plaid Cymru	Penri James	10,815	28.3	-7.6
	Conservative	Luke Evetts	4,421	11.6	-0.8
	Labour	Richard Boudier	2,210	5.8	-6.3
	UKIP	Elwyn Williams	977	2.6	N/A
	Green	Leila Kiersch	696	1.8	-0.5
Majority			8,324	21.8
Turnout			38,258	64.8	-3.2
	Liberal Democrat hold		Swing	+10.6

Before that he has only a 219 majority and that might be more reflective of the reality there.

General Election 2005: Ceredigion
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Democrat	Mark Williams	13,130	36.53	+9.66
	Plaid Cymru	Simon Thomas	12,911	35.92	-2.35
	Conservative	John Harrison	4,455	12.39	-7.05
	Labour	Alun Davies	4,337	12.06	-3.36
	Green	Dave Bradney	846	2.35
	Veritas	Iain Sheldon	268	0.75
Majority			219	0.61	-12.01
Turnout			35,947	67.2	+5.53
	Liberal Democrat gain from Plaid Cymru		Swing	+6.0