Wednesday, 14 June 2017

Welsh Lib Dems 'Bird of Liberty' and a dead parrot/.

It has been pointed  out Ben Lake wining Ceredigion for Plaid last week and increasing the numbers to 4 masked that it was not a good election for the party as they lost votes . Whether it was 'supporters' lending their votes to Labour is open to question , But even if it is true Plaid need to get them back, and many more hew ones.

But ironically for the Liberal Democrats the result masks an even bigger problem.

In 2010 the Lib Dems won a Cardiff Central comfortably


General election 2005: Cardiff Central[16]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Liberal DemocratJenny Willott17,99149.8+13.1
Labour Co-opJon Owen Jones12,39834.3−4.3
ConservativeGotz Mohindra3,3399.2−6.7
Plaid CymruRichard Rhys Grigg1,2713.5−1.3
RespectRaja Gul-Raiz3861.1N/A
UKIPFrank Hughes3831.1+0.5
IndependentAnne Savoury1680.5N/A
New Millennium Bean PartyCaptain Beany1590.4N/A
Rainbow Dream TicketCatherine Taylor-Dawson370.1N/A
Majority5,59315.5
Turnout36,13259.2+0.9
Liberal Democrat gain from Labour Co-opSwing+8.7

Only to be pushed into third place last week

General election 2017: Cardiff Central[7][8][9]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourJo Stevens[10]25,19362.4+22.4
ConservativeGregory Stafford7,99719.8+5.1
Liberal DemocratEluned Parrott[11]5,41513.4-13.7
Plaid CymruMark Hooper9992.5-2.5
GreenBenjamin Smith4201.0-5.3
UKIPMohammed Sarul-Islam3430.8-5.6
Majority17,19642.6+21.7
Turnout68.1

In a large number of seats which in 2010 looked like Lab-LibDem marginals just 10 years ago they finished very badly. Even loosing their deposits.

General Election 2010: Pontypridd[10][11]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourOwen Smith14,22038.8−15.4
Liberal DemocratMike Powell11,43531.2+11.2
ConservativeLee Gonzalez5,93216.2+4.6
Plaid CymruIoan Bellin2,6737.3−3.7
UKIPDavid Bevan1,2293.4+0.8
Socialist LabourSimon Parsons4561.2N/A
ChristianDonald Watson3651.0N/A
GreenJohn Matthews3611.0N/A
Majority2,7857.6−25.7
Turnout36,67163.0−0.2
Labour holdSwing−13.3
General Election 2017: Pontypridd[8]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourOwen Smith22,10355.4Increase 14.3
ConservativeJuliette Ash10,65526.7Increase 9.4
Plaid CymruFflur Elin4,10210.3Decrease 1.2
Liberal DemocratMike Powell1,9634.9Decrease 8.0
UKIPRobin Hunter-Clarke1,0712.7Decrease 10.7
Majority11,44828.7Increase 5.0
Turnout39,894
Labour holdSwingIncrease 2.5
Interestingly the Plaid vote held in Pontypridd  and maybe plaid should may more attention to this Constituency , They has a very good  candidate who might have abright future.
General Election 2010: Swansea West[11][12]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Labour Co-opGeraint Davies12,33534.7-7.2
Liberal DemocratPeter May11,83133.2+4.3
ConservativeRené Kinzett[13]7,40720.8+4.8
Plaid CymruHarri Roberts1,4374.0-2.5
BNPAlan Bateman9102.6N/A
UKIPTimothy Jenkins7162.0+0.2
GreenKeith Ross4041.1-1.1
IndependentIan McCloy3741.1N/A
TUSCRob Williams1790.5N/A
Majority5041.5
Turnout35,59358.0+1.3
Labour holdSwing-5.7
General Election 2017: Swansea West[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourGeraint Davies22,27859.8+17.2
ConservativeCraig Lawton11,68031.3+8.8
Plaid CymruRhydian Fitter1,5294.1-2.3
Liberal DemocratMichael O'Carroll1,2693.4-5.6
GreenMike Whittall4341.2-3.9
Socialist (GB)Brian Johnson920.2+0.1
Majority10,59828.5
Turnout37,34565.5+5.7
Labour holdSwing+4.2


General Election 2010: Newport East[9][10]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourJessica Morden12,74437.0-8.2 Decrease
Liberal DemocratEd Townsend11,09432.2+8.5 Increase
ConservativeDawn Parry7,91823.0-0.5 Decrease
BNPKeith Jones1,1683.4N/A
Plaid CymruFiona Cross7242.1-1.7 Decrease
UKIPDavid Rowlands6772.0-1.0 Decrease
Socialist LabourElizabeth Screen1230.4-0.4 Decrease
Majority1,6504.8
Turnout34,44863.6+5.7 Increase
Labour holdSwing-8.3 Decrease



General Election 2017: Newport East[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourJessica Morden20,80456.5+15.8 Increase
ConservativeNatasha Asghar12,80134.8+7.5 Increase
UKIPIan Gorman1,1803.2-15.2 Decrease
Liberal DemocratPete Brown9662.6-3.8 Decrease
Plaid CymruCameron Wixcey8812.4-1.1 Decrease
IndependentNadeem Ahmed1880.5N/A
Majority8,00321.7+8.3 Increase
Turnout36,82064.3+1.6 Increase
Labour holdSwing
Yes Plaid also lost their deposits in far to many seats but for the Lib Dems who only seven years ago looked kike serious challengers in a number of seats 

But the Lib Dems have not only lost their deposit throughout Wales they have also lost their Heartland and its only Ceredegion  is a seat which could be described as a winnable marginal seat.






'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the perch 'e'd be pushing up the daisies!'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig!'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile!!


With La Pasionaria (Kirsty Williams) bedded in the Welsh Assembly Government  they don't even have a MP or AM who can use the 'luxury of opposition" to voice populist  policies.

Can they recover of course . but its going to be harder after this Election and thier  little bar graphs and " only the Liberal Democrats can defeat X or Y' is going to look laughable.



2 comments:

  1. These constituencies are university seats with the student population voting Plaid (Aber) or Labour (elsewhere) whereas they may have voted Lib Dem previously due to ConDem Government increased tuition fees and Labour promising to abolish the fees in their current manifesto. Also Jeremy Corbyn was electioneering like Bernie Sanders outweighing the Lib Dems promise to cancel Brexit. Again, the 30-50 age cohort voted mainly Labour rather than for other parties. And the Tory Maybot campaign suicidally exterminated the Tory vote. Look forward (sic) to the the CONDUP government....

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