The LibDems can't erase the last five years in 100 days.

Does changing the Party Leader for  someone who may have rebelled against the former leadership in the past wipe out the Long Shadow of the past number of years.

With Jeremy Corbyn favourite to win  the Labour leadership contest and Tim Farron  now the leader of the LibDems both parties may hope the electorate who have deserted them because they seem to differ only slightly for the Tories will return.

However neither can surely  wipe away years of Blairiism or being the Tories bag carriers in a instant.


Our old friend  LibDem AM  Peter Black seems to thing so if his Blog is anything to go by.

Peter refers to an article in the Huffington Post in which  Tim Farron argues that

"After Just 100 Days, The Penny Is Well and Truly Dropping on How Hard Lib Dems Fought in Government".

And it reads like good old fashioned radical Liberalism as Peter Black points out

Tim Farron writes that week after week, we have seen the Tories roll back a whole raft of policies that the Liberal Democrats blocked in government:


Farron writes

• Protection of housing benefit for those under 21 - gone;
• Protection of child tax credits for larger families - gone;
• Protection for the benefit rates for people with disabilities and health problems that make it particularly difficult for them to enter the job market - gone.
• And, tragically, we know the Tories' ideological, unnecessary welfare cuts will hit the poorest families in the country - mostly hardworking families.

He continues:

On the environment, David Cameron is now free to be every bit as good as his word, and, with a massive downgrade of the agenda that the Lib Dems championed in coalition, he absolutely has. So, we have already seen ten key environmental policies, developed by consensus over many years, watered down or completely scrapped.

• Support for onshore windfarms - gone;
• The green deal aimed at improving energy efficiency in people's homes - gone;
• Protection for fracking in precious wildlife areas - gone;
• And the decade long plan to make all new homes "zero carbon" by 2016 - suddenly, inexplicably, gone.

 And to be fair to Tim Farron he was one of only two LibDems who voted against the Bedroom Tax.


And then Peter spoils it all with a load of bollocks

He writes

 The Liberal Democrats leader concludes that the Liberal Democrats have been the only ones to front up and oppose brutal welfare cuts on the weakest in society. We are the only party showing compassion to desperate asylum seekers from war-torn countries and calling for an EU wide solution to a true humanitarian crisis.
On this he is right. What we need to do now though is to take that message to the country, community by community through the sorts of grassroots campaigning that the party once specialised in. With Labour in disarray, with the nationalist parties of Plaid Cymru and UKIP having nothing new to say on these issues, this is our opportunity. We must not fluff it.

He seems to ignore the fact  Plaid the SNP and Greens have opposed all the above concerns that he and his leader now share and which the LibDems mutely stood aside from for in order to get their bums on seats arund the Tory lead cabinet.

It is welcome to see the LibDem joining in the Anti-Austerity campaign and speak out on Humanity  but they are not the only voice nor are they the loudest voice they lost those  May 2010 when they  backed Cameron for PM and in May 2015 they became minor players .

Peter Black ,Tim Farron and the rest of the LibDems  can't claim this role for themselves or even to lead it anymore.

Two opinion polls/ two confusing messages.

 There are two interesting opinion polls covered by two of our weekend newspapers

The first in the Guardian  suggest that Jeremy Corbyn is most popular among voters from all parties,

 According to the Guardian

Jeremy Corbyn is more popular than the other Labour leadership candidates with the wider electorate and fares particularly well with Ukip supporters as well as those from his own party, a Survation poll suggests.
The survey of 1,000 people found that Corbyn scored the highest when they were asked about his personal qualities and which candidate would be the best at holding the government to account as the leader of the opposition.
Among Ukip voters, 39% of them liked him the most, higher than the 38% of Labour voters who said so. But just 22% of Conservatives liked Corbyn, compared with 25% who preferred Andy Burnham.
When asked who would make the best prime minister, Burnham was narrowly ahead with 25%, against 24% for Corbyn, and the two men were tied on 26% on who would be the most likely to win the next general election as Labour leader.

The two other candidates, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall, were trailing the others on the majority of questions asked.
Survation said that, on the face of it, the results did not bear out arguments from senior Labour figures that either Corbyn or his policies would be deeply unpopular with the country.

 The polling was commissioned by the Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association and carried out this week, but Survation said it was completely independent and followed the same online methodology as on previous occasions when it has conducted polls on the Labour leadership for the Mail on Sunday.

And yet in the Independent a pool commissioned by them  suggests that another a victory for Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour leadership race will reduce the party's chances of winning the next election,

The ComRes poll finds 31 per cent of voters think that Mr Corbyn would worsen Labour’s chances if he became leader, as against 21 per cent who say he would improve them, an overall score of -10. Out of the leadership candidates, Andy Burnham is best placed to improve Labour’s chances, on +5, followed by Yvette Cooper on -3 and Ms Kendall on -6. But the potential leader with the best rating is David Miliband, who quit British politics two years ago, with an overall score of +11.
The poll finds that more than twice as many British adults think that Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister would make the state of the British economy worse rather than better (36 per cent versus 14 per cent); while three times as many think he would make Britain’s standing around the world worse rather than better (37 per cent to 11 per cent).
The only aspect that voters think would be improved under a Corbyn premiership is the railways, with 23 per cent thinking they would be better compared to with 22 per cent who think they would be worse.

 It just goes to show that when poling moves on from simply YES or NO or simple voting intentions .

Trying to figure out the mood of the electorate or why they are supporting a political party may be futile.

The 39% of them of Ukip voters my well suggest that a fair number of Ukip votes in May came from from people disillusioned with the major Parties rather than opposing Europe or Immigration.

But that's only a hopeful analysis by me. From the two polls reported on it would take a better man than me to try and interpreter them.

 

Two Welsh Byelections this week and LibDems happy

There were two bylections in Wales this week and tits the Liberal Democrats who get bragging rights

Powys CC, Glasbury- 13th August 2015

James Gibson-Watt Liberal Democrat 457 [44.4%; +44.4%]
James Evans Conservative 415 [40.3%; -10.9%]
David Roger Hook Independent 106 [10.3%; -20.2%]
Louise Davies Green 52 [5%; +5%]
Majority: 42
LD gain from Conservative

Percentage change since 2012


 Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 502 (51%), Independent 299 (30%), Non Party Independent 180 (18%

This is the second win in Byelections in Wales since the General Election  after Llay on Wrerxaham and in both cases the party did not contest the election in 2012 . A sign of a LibDem recovery?

Far to early to cal but it sems it is clear they are not dead and burried

Caerphilly UA, New Tredegar- 23rd July 2015

 

For Plaid there was an improvement on their last election 

Julian Simmonds Labour 354 [50.6%; -4.3%]
Chris Cook Plaid Cymru 179 [25.6%; +12.9%]
Joe Smyth UKIP 166 [23.7%; +23.7%]

Majority: 175 Labour Hold
Percentage change since 2012

 Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 543 (55%), Independent 281 (28%), Plaid Cymru 126 (13%), Conservative 39 (4%)

Plaid will however  have higher hopes for the Bedwas and Machen ward of the council on the 3rd of September the Plaid candidate is the former Labour Secretary of State for Wales Ron Davies should prove interesting.

Another Company receving Welsh Government Grants goes under.

BBC Wales report that a Llantrisant-based manufacturing firm, which had planned to create 200 new jobs supported by £2m in finance from the Welsh Government, is expected to go into administration.

Earlier this year Universal Engineering Universal, which has other operations and its head office in Dorset and specialises in designing, developing and manufacturing equipment for the oil and gas sectors, defence and aerospace industries, announced a major investment at its 250,000 sq ft facility.

Universal’s 16-acre site at Llantrisant was selected from a shortlist of potential sites across the UK and abroad because of its good transport links, which include the nearby deep-water ports at Newport and Cardiff, and highly skilled local workforce.

The operation employs around 100. It launched the operation in April with 65 staff and had planned to reach 200 over a two year period.

It is a worrying development that once again the Welsh Government have invested in a company with the noble idea only to see it go under.

The news comes son aftter financial company which left Wales a year after setting up has been asked to repay £700,000 of public funds.

Guardian Wealth Management closed its Caerphilly office in June 2014 blaming low demand for a financial product aimed at the Muslim community.

The firm said it would repay around half of its Welsh government grant aid.

In July, another financial services firm - Griffin Place Communications Ltd in Cwmbran - went into liquidation with the loss of 140 jobs, having received £600,000 in 2014. Bridgend-based finance technology company Ideoba - backed by £176,000 of grant aid - closed in April.

And in June, it was revealed Cardiff-based financial services firm, Open Resolution, had gone into liquidation without collecting a promised £250,000 grant from the Welsh government.

Its beginning to look like the Welsh Government are so desperate to be seen to be creating Jobs that they are not investigating the liability of these companies thoroughly enough or not having a vigorous support policy for these companies.

It seems odd that the Media have not highlighted these failures more as its becoming scandalous.

It may be fortunate for the Minister responsible that the Assembly is now in recess as they would probably find themselves answering some very awkward 

Blair's attempt to stop Corbyn is the reason to do the opposite.

 At least in his article in the  Guardian entitled

Even if you hate me, please don’t take Labour over the cliff edge 

Tony Blair may have realised that he is not universally loved  but in his attept to stop Jeremy Corbyn leadership Juggernaut he clearly doesn't understand tha\t a great deal of people in these Islands are fed up with the right wing consensus 

 

The unions in the 1980s were, by a majority, a force for stability and sense. There were constituencies so solidly Labour that nothing could shake them from their loyalty. The party that assembled after the 1983 defeat knew its direction. Maybe we didn’t know how far or how fast, but we knew, and the new leader Neil Kinnock knew, that we had to put aside the delusion that we had lost two elections because we weren’t leftwing enough and start to modernise. And our objective was to return to government.

Well he may have a point  in that the right in the Labour Party were buffeted by the Unions . But it is ironic that Blair went about dismantling the Unions influenced in the Party once he believed  the left were defeated 

What we’re witnessing now is a throwback to that time, but without the stabilisers in place. The big unions, with the exception of the most successful in recent times, USDAW, are in the grip of the hard left. And the people do not have that same old-time loyalty.

Blair  took that loyalty away . He did nothing to reverse the anti-union laws of the Thatcher government and saw the Unions merely as cash cow for the  party. The fact that the Unions may no longer see Labour as representing their members is because they don't

If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation. If he wins the leadership, the public will at first be amused, bemused and even intrigued. But as the years roll on, as Tory policies bite and the need for an effective opposition mounts – and oppositions are only effective if they stand a hope of winning – the public mood will turn to anger. They will seek to punish us. They will see themselves as victims not only of the Tory government but of our self-indulgence.

How can you be an effective opposition if only 48 Labour MPs voted against the Welfare Bil on the 20 July   not that the majority of what is supposed  to be "Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition" didn't

Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t offer anything new. This is literally the most laughable of all the propositions advanced by his camp. Those of us who lived through the turmoil of the 80s know every line of this script. These are policies from the past that were rejected not because they were too principled, but because a majority of the British people thought they didn’t work. And by the way, they were rejected by electorates round the world for the same reasons.

Blair does not seem to relies the financial crisis and the Austerity program that the Tories in which the current Labour party have failed to oppose has left many particular the hard hit poorest members of our communities disillusioned. Blair should ask not why did some of voters switch to the right . But why did so many fail to vote .y

 Even more so today, they do not think their challenges can be met by old-fashioned state control as the way to personal or social empowerment; they do not think breaking up Nato unilaterally is sensible; and they realise that a party without a serious deficit-reduction plan is not in these times a serious contender to govern them.

A fair number of people  are beginning  to realise that maybe NATO simply means obeying the U.S. policy of you are either with us or against us.

To be lectured on this by a former Prime Minister who is hugely responsible for the current situation in the Middle East where there is hardly one stable government would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic.

I am not a member of the Labour party and even if Jeremy Corbyn  was to win I would stilt not join so its not for me to say how members should vote. But maybe I can say they shouldn't,t listen to a vainglorious  war criminal.

Welsh Tory and LibDem on Tax credits in hypocrisy race.

Welsh Conservative MP Guto Bebb’s warning that tax credit changes are “eye-wateringly painful to those affected” has drawn fire from the Tories former Coalition Partners the  Liberal Democrats.

Aberconwy MP Mr Bebb sounded the alarm about UK Government plans which could see families lose up to £1,000 a year.
He stated:

 “While the introduction of a national living wage was rightly lauded, the changes to tax credits have been somewhat under-scrutinised. The changes are both eye-wateringly painful to those affected, but also reverse a key policy platform of the last five years, namely making work pay

 “Come April there will be some real anger and frustration out there amongst the very people we should be supporting.”

Well is that nice of him ?

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that three million families could lose £1,000 a year, with 13 million losing on average £240.
The think tank’s director responded to last month’s Budget, saying:

“Unequivocally, tax credit recipients in work will be made worse off by the measures in the Budget on average.

Which prompted a response  from the LibDems eager to pit thier past behind them.

 North Wales Lib Dem AM Aled Roberts said in a statement:

  “Guto Bebb seems completely oblivious of the fact that the reason these immoral cuts to tax credits never happened over the last five years is that Liberal Democrats were in Government, blocking attempt after attempt by the Tories to slash them. Now the Conservatives have free rein in Downing Street, we’re seeing their true colours as they implement billions of welfare cuts with no regard for the consequences.
“Guto may be complaining now about the effects of cutting tax credits, but he voted in favour of them in parliament – unlike the Liberal Democrats who opposed these damaging cuts which will disproportionately affect the working age poor.”

You got to admire the two's  Chutzpah in trying to gain some sort of moral highground.


 
Mr Bebb responded to the criticism by saying that Mr Roberts was a “good man” but “clearly there is an election in the offing.”



He said: 

“Aled is a good man and that press release stinks of Liberal Democrat desperation rather than Aled... I don’t think he would try and kick below the belt in that manner.
“The big difference between the welfare reform changes of the last parliament and this parliament was that in the last parliament it was all based upon the need to make work pay. And a big concern which Aled should share with me rather than trying to score cheap political points is that there is a slight reversal in the [tax credit] reduction rates which means that people will be losing more as they work more.
“So this is not really an issue about welfare cuts, if Aled understood what’s going on... This is an issue about making sure that work pays.
“For the first time we are making changes which are diluting slightly the effort made to ensure that work always pays.”
 If I remember rightly, the only Liberal who took a great interest in welfare reform was [former Work and Pensions minister] Steve Webb when he defended the bedroom tax to the hilt.”

So in order to defend the government from the LIbDems attack Mr Bebb seems to be defending a policy that he admits to be uncomfortable with.

Whilst Aled Roberts whose Party was the Bag carriers for the Tories in the last election are trying to claim that they held of such cuts in the last Parliament despite the obvious criticism that they actually helped to start the Austerity Programme Log rolling.'

 



 
 

Plaid sees defection to Tories and suppoter backing Corbyn.

There may be a problem for Plaid  in two stories om the Wasting Mules online page 

The first is the news that a former Plaid Cymru candidate who now hopes to defeat the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats as a Conservative says he sees no contradiction in his political position.

According to the Mule

Former Plaid Cymru candidate who now hopes to defeat the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats as a Conservative says he sees no contradiction in his political position.

Gary Price, a Powys county councillor and postman, will be taking on Kirsty Williams in Brecon & Radnorshire at next year’s National Assembly election.
It won’t be the first time he has been up against her. In 2011 he was Plaid’s candidate in the seat, coming fourth with just 1,906 votes. Ms Williams won with 12,201 votes – more than six times as many.
Now he has switched parties, however, Mr Price is in with a much better chance of defeating Wales’ top Lib Dem. In May’s general election, the Conservatives won Brecon & Radnorshire from the Lib Dems’ former MP Roger Williams with a comfortable majority of 5,102.
Asked what had changed from his point of view since he joined Plaid Cymru in 2010 saying Plaid offered the best set of policies for Powys, Mr Price said: “I don’t want to talk about the past – I want to talk about the future. People have seen through the Liberal Democrats and want a change. I am the only candidate saying I would not prop up a failing Labour government at Cardiff Bay.”

Maybe  this says more about the Tories lack of confidence in wining Brecon and Radnor that they have gone for a Plaid defector rather than an established party member . I bet La Pasionaria (Kirsty Wiliams) is shaking in her boots

Probably more worrying is the report that 

A former Plaid Cymru council candidate has rejected a Labour MP’s claim that she “lied” when registering as a Labour supporter to vote for Jeremy Corbyn in the party’s leadership election.
Esther Nagle, who stood unsuccessfully for Plaid in Ystrad Rhondda in 2012 said she was no longer a Plaid member, although remained a supporter of the party and its anti-austerity stance.

Rhondda Labour MP Chris Bryant said it was clear from her recent tweets that Ms Nagle remained a Plaid supporter and she had therefore lied when registering as a Labour supporter.

Whether this comes about from  Acting Labour leader Harriet Harman ordering  Labour MPs to check their membership lists for infiltrators is unclear but its interesting

  Chris Bryant MP ‏@RhonddaBryant Aug 7

So @Esthernagle refuses to deny that she is still Plaid member (former candidate) yet has registered for a vote in Labour leadership.

7 retweets 3 favorites

1. 
   

Esther Nagle ‏@Esthernagle

@RhonddaBryant taken place through a private conversation rather than accusation on Twitter.This is not how an MP should treat a constituent

Ms Nagle said

: “I was appalled to log in to Twitter a couple of days ago to find that Chris Bryant, my MP, had decided to broadcast my decision to register to vote in the Labour leadership contest, and to publicly accuse me of being a liar.
"This was an infringement of my right to privacy. I am no longer a member of Plaid Cymru, having allowed my membership to lapse some time ago, although I still very much support Plaid Cymru.
"I have chosen to register to take part in the Labour leadership contest as I have been appalled to see the Labour leadership move ever more to the right, allowing Tory policies to pass against the interests of the majority of the people of this country.

 With news that Corbyn set to win on the first round according to sensational YouGov LAB leadership poll it may lead to more concern to Plaid that spotters on the Left may not just temporally   sign  up to Labour but join .

But where will levae Chris Bryant maybe like Gary Price he wil become an enthusiastic Corbynitre and say he sees no contradiction in his political position.