Ceredigion leader Ellen ap Gwynn needs to heard on NHS funding.

The Plaid Cymru leader of Ceredigion Ellen ap Gwynn called for the public spending watchdog to look "in detail" at how the seven boards spend their money.

She said it was "disgraceful" that councils had lost almost £200m with "little notice" to "bail out health boards" in the Welsh government budget.

Ministers denied the NHS had gained funding at the expense of councils.

The BBC says that

Ms ap Gwynn urged the assembly's Finance Committee to send "a clear message" to the Wales Audit Office (WAO) about the need for an investigation into how boards manage their finances.This week, Auditor General Huw Vaughan Thomas called for an urgent and far-reaching debate on how much the Welsh government could afford to spend on the NHS.Last month, the Welsh government's draft budget for 2015-16 allocated an extra £425m to the health service over the next two years.But £192m was cut from Welsh ministers' total local government budget for 2015-16, and they announced last week that the money directly paid to the 22 local authorities in their block grants would fall by £146m.

Ms ap Gwynn hopefully wil not be dismissed outright .

Its beginning to be worrying when it seems to be impossible not to increase spending on the NHS year in  years out .

This may sound odd coming from a Blog claiming to be on the Progressive Left especially one who this Year had a serious Operation followed by another say in hospital and who has had numerous visits to clinics and faces many more.

But so long as Health boards feel that they can rely on Politicians to increase spending fearing Political suicide if they don't. There will be no incentive to see our they can be more effective.and save money whilst maintaining or even improving services.

The Welsh Government and all the other Parties have to look hard this.

As long as we are in a robbing Peter to pay Paul where Peter is always the NHS it will not consider reform.

 This week Labour, Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrats in the Assembly. with Proposals for further devolution to Wales.

Maybe they should also agree on the current system of all calling for money to be spent on the NHS and find a way to seekingh how it can become better

But there seems to be little chance of this happening

Ellen ap Gwynn will probably be a loan voice  but the least we can do is listen to what she says.

Plaid must not accept anything but parity with Scotland.

One of the reasons I am not a member of Plaid though this Blog nominally supports that party is that I feel I have to be able to criticise the Party.

This occurs from time to time and it has happened when Leanne Wood joined with leaders of Labour, Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrats in the Assembly. with Proposals for further devolution to Wales

Their blueprint is set out in a joint motion which will be debated by Assembly Members next week.

The National Assembly for Wales:
Welcomes the Prime Minister’s commitment that Wales will be at the heart of the debate on the future of the United Kingdom;
Calls for bilateral talks that are informed by the Holtham and Silk 1 Commissions’ findings, including an updated assessment of the current level and likely future direction of Welsh relative funding;
Calls for those talks, which should begin immediately and be completed by January 2015, to have a particular focus on fair funding, with the goal of securing rapid implementation of a funding floor which both addresses underfunding in a way that is consistent with Welsh needs and halts future convergence;
Calls for the UK Government to:-ensure that the same powers are given to Wales regarding the devolution of Corporation Tax if they are provided to Northern Ireland and Scotland;-devolve Air Passenger Duty for direct long-haul flights;-review the level of the borrowing powers afforded to Wales in the Wales Bill; and-work with the Welsh Government to enable it to issue its own bonds;
Seeks recognition that if a decision is taken to hold a Referendum on tax varying powers, this should reflect the view of the people of Wales;
Seeks confirmation that the Reserved Powers model will be instituted for Wales;
Calls on the UK Government to give the National Assembly for Wales the power to determine its electoral arrangements;
Calls on the UK Government to make progress on Silk 2;
Affirms that these matters should be taken forward in legislative proposals, published before the end of the current Westminster parliamentary session.

Where's the parity with Scotland? The above looks like no where going towards reaching this.

And bear in mind if English Votes for English Laws goes through then English  MPs wil be also de facto members of an English Parliament within Westminster and have the same powers as Members of the Scottish Parliament. Having more powers than our AM in Cardiff.

On his Blog Jac produces an analysis of Plaid that I find completely wrong  for instance  he says

The Scottish National Party enjoys its position of strength, not because it ‘reached out’ to colonising Greens (Scotland has its own pro-independence Green Party), not because it indulged itself in sixth form ‘socialism’, not because it snuggled up to Labour and certainly not because it tried to out-Labour Labour; no, the SNP’s strength is the result of confronting the Labour Party and the British system head-on with a message of hope for the Scottish people. This is why Glasgow voted Yes last month. All Plaid Cymru does is agonise over the nuts and bolts of devolution and whine about the Barnett Formula, (basically, just asking for a bigger begging bowl). Plaid Cymru is a defeatist party; it is a collaborationist party.

A quick look at the areas that voted YES in the referendum shows that it was those people in working class areas   who saw a brighter future for Scotland under a leadership of a Left leaning party (SNP) rather than Blue or Red Tories in Westminster.

But that does not mean that Plaid failure to push the Independence argument in years of the Assembly wasn't a mistake.

In the first years in particular the Blaid concentrated to much on making the assembly work and enough on its failings.

My message to Leanne Wood is to make it clear t hat whilst this agreement d  may be the maximum of devolution wanted by the other parties (including the LibDems) it the bare minimum that Plaid will back.And don't forget you can't trust the others (remember The Vow).

I am not sure that Independence should be Plaid's rallying call for the 2016 elections but at least let it be Parity with Scotland.

I hope its not going to be we want larger crumbs of the table.



  

An Independent Scotland could be even closer.

One of the weapons the Unionist  used  in the campaign for a NO vote was  the fate of cross-border health care in an independent Scotland.

John Lamont a Tory , whose constituency is in the Borders,  published a letter from the UK government's Department of Health.

It says negotiations would be required for present arrangements to continue.

Buts Scottish Health Secretary Alex Neil  said agreements were already in place which would allow the current system to remain in place.

Thousands of people in southern Scotland and northern England are treated at hospitals on opposite sides of the border every year.

Mr Lamont said the letter from the Department of Health confirmed that this "vital" arrangement could cease to exist in an independent Scotland.

"Should Scotland vote to leave the union this September it is far from certain that Borders patients would continue to receive cross-border care," he said.

"I know that this will come as a concern to the thousands of Borders patients who every year benefit from being able to access health care in England.

"To lose this ability would not only prove to be a massive inconvenience to them, it could also restrict their access to important medical care.

If any one is still in doubt  the latest news from Ireland that  Northern Ireland's health minister has backed the establishment of an all-Ireland children's heart surgery centre in Dublin in the Republic of Ireland.

It means surgery in Belfast's Royal Victoria Hospital will cease.

Jim Wells made the announcement to the assembly on Tuesday, following a review of children's cardiac services.

In 2012, it emerged that services at the Royal were not sustainable with many operations taking place in either England or Dublin.

Mr Wells, a Democratic Unionist Party minister, told MLAs he was recommending the implementation of a new cross-border model of co-operation that would "deliver safe and effective cardiac care to children in Northern Ireland".

Its a pity that this wasn't confirmed during the referendum  run up as it may have swayed people who were influenced by project fear.

Still it shows that different Nations can work together on a equal basis and agree on a strategy that suits them both.

It goes someway to show how the Labour party in Scotland collaborated to mislead the Scottish people. with the Tories.

It becomes even clearer as we look at  the  so called Command Paper, published on Monday,  which pretended  to outline the parties' proposals for extra powers to the Scottish Parliament, perhaps?

So you would have expected at least a debate  about the future of Scottish devolution to see what was on offer

Or the very least, a "general debate" on where the UK currently stands, having come so close to splitting?

In the end, it took mere seconds of the opening speech by William Hague to see that this was to be none of those.

The Leader of the House told MPs that any new settlement for Scotland demanded a "balanced settlement" for the rest of the UK.

"Fairness for England" was now demanded, an end to the debate over the West Lothian Question.

Scotland watched as within hours of voting No the PM switched focus from answering the Scottish question, to answering an English one.

Gordon Brown and Labour may cry stitch up  announced that it would refuse an invitation from William Hague to contribute to the work of a cabinet committee.

But it is they who are going to answer to the people of Scotland.

. The Scottish first minister told the BBC’s Radio 4 Today programme:

 “There is a huge gap that is emerging between the vow – the last-minute, desperate promise made under the guarantee of Gordon Brown by the three Westminster leaders – and what was suggested in the command paper, which was just a regurgitation of what has been indicated last spring, promises which were so weak they hardly featured in the no campaign.“Right now, the initial judgment that’s coming from Scotland is that people have no confidence in Tory guarantees and are absolutely fizzing about what looks like a preparation for a betrayal of a strong commitment made.”

A NO vote was expected to put an end to Scottish Independence's for at least a generation it may be that it makes it even more likely than if there had been a narrow YES victory. 

A Narrow YES vote would have led to Unionists insisting on a second referendum to confirm the negotiations leading up to Independence Day.

In just a few weeks the wholr game has changed.

We are not electing a UK President in 2015.

The row over over the TV debate offer to Nigel Farage grows and offers some interesting constitutional arguments

At The Moment it is proposed that

• One head-to-head debate between the "two leaders who could become prime minister", Mr Cameron and Labour's Ed Miliband, on Sky and Channel 4 and chaired by Jeremy Paxman

For a start it would not be between the "two leaders who could become prime minister", it would be between the leaders who probably lead the  largest party in the new parliament.

Any Member of the UK parliament could be Prime Minister including members of the House of Lords. Neither John Major or Gordon Brown were leaders of their party at the start of the parliament in which they become Prime Minister.

In the event of another hung parliament it would not be impossible for an agreement for the leader of the smallest party to be PM or indeed in a "Rainbow Colition" the smalest Party . Jonathen Edwards for PM anybody?

• Another, also to include the Liberal Democrat leader, to be hosted by David Dimbleby, on BBC TV, radio and online

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	31.22%	242
LAB	29.66%	258	35.98%	346
LIB	23.56%	57	8.01%	18
UKIP	3.17%	0	15.02%	0
NAT	2.26%	9	3.37%	25
MIN	4.37%	19	6.40%	19

The above Table by Electoral Calculus  is base on current voting intentions this means that even if you exclude Plaid MPs . The SNP wil be the third largest party. So potentially the LIibDems could be added a boost 

The YouGov poll after  the first TV debate in 2010 saw a huge surge in support for the Liberal Democrats.  Nick Clegg’s performance put the LibDems  in 2nd place ahead of Labour and just three points behind the Tories.  The figures published in The Sun showed Conservative 33%(-4), Labour 28%(-3), LibDem 30%(+8). 

It didn't last but it may have prevented the LIb Dems being squeezed . Though I supose it did lead the Tory press to turn on the LIbDems for a while.

• Another debate, on ITV and chaired by Julie Etchingham, featuring the leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UK Independence Party

With Ukip on 15% well ahead of the LibDems  its hard to see an argument to exclude Farage  from the debate  However it is clear that they wil still struggle to win a seat and the Greens could still outnumber them in Parliament.

And of course where does this lead the Greens Plaid and the SNP (not forgetting Gorgeous George Galloway though I would like to).

There seems to be no clamour from the Northern Island Parties but we will see.

What we have at the moment is the Media deciding which Party could possibly win the next General Election and furthermore an attempt to turn it in to a "Presidential Campaign"  making it a choice between Cameron or Miliband  (some choice).

We still don't know who will win the next General Election or the current surge for the SNP or Ukip will hold up  But in the interest of Democracy here should be a rethink now.

MSP defection strengthens Greens but does SNP little harm.

On 28 August 2014, Conservative MP for Clacton Douglas Carswell resigned his seat  after  his defection to UKIP on the eve of the Tory party conference  and leading to a by-election in his Clacton constituency, he stood for and won as UKIP, leading to the first UKIP Member of Parliament.

Just a month after the defection of Carswell, a second Conservative MP - the MP for Rochester and Strood Mark Reckless - announced his defection to the party at UKIP's annual conference in Doncaster

Interestingly  that : the Highlands and Islands of the largest geographical region of UKplc to be precise, an MSP  Joun Finniewho left the SNP back in 2011 when they signalled a policy u-turn and declared their commitment to staying in NATO if Scotland were to choose independence, throws his lot in with the Scottish Greens at the start of their annual conference. has hardly produced a ripple

John Finnie and Jean Urquhar defected from the party over the SNP’s change to a more pro-NATO policy. and have been sitting as Independents forming a Bloc with the Greens.

In September  MSP John Wilson quit the party whip in the Scottish Parliament, reducing the SNP's majority to one.

Mr Wilson was critical over the party's decision to endorse Scotland's membership of Nato, in the event of independence.

He said he would have quit earlier but did not want to damage the YES campaign Following the referendum "No" vote, the Central Scotland list MSP 

And Yet this has hardly produced a ripple.in the media who are dying to find negative SNP stories.

Maybe its because it has not damaged the SNP one Iota

Electoral  Calculus  latest prediction points to the SNP possibly being the Third Largest Party in the House of Commons in 2015

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	16.75%	1	20.00%	4
LAB	42.00%	41	31.00%	30
LIB	18.88%	11	6.00%	2
UKIP	0.70%	0	4.00%	0
NAT	19.93%	6	33.00%	23
MIN	1.75%	0	6.00%	0

Unfortunately do not give accurate figures for Wales relying on the previous Plaid vote.yo make predictions.

It is quite extraordinary that both the SNP and Scottish Greens have benefited from these defections .

Whilst the two Tory MPs have honourably chosen to resign their seats and fight a Byelection the choice is not opent to the three SNP members.

As regional MSP if they were to resign then there would be no Byelection the seat would pass to the SNP.

It shows the ridiculous nature of the additional member system. ON 8 December 2009, Mohammad Asghar became the first AM to cross the floor, defecting from Plaid Cymru to the Conservative Party. He claimed that he felt "out of tune" with Plaid policies, described himself as a royalist and unionist,and stated that he felt like "a little parrot in a jungle".

So Plaid effectively lost a seat even though it was theirs if Asghar had resigned or died and the same seems to apply in Scotland.
Mind you whilst the three MSP might have fought a byelection  I soubt Asghar would have chosen to.


Except of course the SNP can probably still rely on the support of two of the defectors.and as i have said have not been damaged by them.

Alun Davies and Leighton Andrews have learned nothing.

Two Welsh Labour Assembly politicians who left their cabinet post under a cloud have been given space by the Wasting Mule  to  boost their already inflated egos

Blaenau Gwent AM and former natural resources minister Alun Davies said the requests he made about opposition AMs’ private financial interests seemed reasonable at the time.

He said he made the request about farm subsidy payments so he “personally” could know whether AMs had a personal issue in asking him questions about EU farming subsidies, information that is currently private.

Mr Davies was speaking to journalists after calling for Monmouthshire council to merge with Blaenau Gwent and Torfaen as part of the Welsh Government’s drive to shrink the number of local authorities in Wales.

We can only surmise that he was using the merger question as an excuse for him to rewrite History

Mr Davies’ request had been made a day after Permanent Secretary Derek Jones issued a report that concluded the Blaenau Gwent AM had breached the ministerial code in a separate matter by intervening in a planning process on the Circuit of Wales racetrack within his constituency.

Asked if the requests that led to his firing were ill-advised, Mr Davies said: “If I knew that sending that email was going to have led to what it led to I wouldn’t have done it.

“I didn’t feel that request was in anyway unusual or would create difficulties. I felt it was a reasonable request to make at the time.”He said he’d sought the information “in order to understand where people are coming from in asking a question”.“At that time in July I was coming to the end of a series of decision sessions on CAP and Pillar 2,” he said – Pillar 2 being a part of CAP.“I just wanted to understand whether anybody questioning me, particularly on Pillar 2 subsidies, had any personal issue for asking those questions. It was personally for my own background that I wanted to understand that.

So it seems that Alun Davies only regret is that  he was caught and that if he was ever to return to Cabinet he would continue more or less in the same vein

The second piece is a review of former Education Minister Leighton Andrews on his time in office.by  Dr Philip Dixon, with whom he developed a strong working relationship, (so hardly an unbiased appraisal

You can get a taste of the Dr Dixon admiration for Andrews with the opening paragraph.

Who is the most recognised Welsh politician on the UK stage? The First Minister or his erstwhile Education Minister, Leighton Andrews?
It’s a moot point. For years the London-based media had been all but blind to Wales. This book tells how they became aware that “for Wales, see England” is no longer the case.
The book is fascinating on many levels. Mr Andrews’ early personal experiences ignited his passion for education. His encounter with the grammar school system, and his brother’s rejection by it, sowed the seeds for his total commitment to comprehensive schooling.
Given his own struggle, excuses for under-achievement proffered by the educational establishment just make him “angry”. As a working-class boy who grew up in what is now the minister’s constituency, I could not agree more.

Pass the sick bag Alice.

Is he really a working class boy ?  Perhaps DR Dixon or Leighton himself  can answer?

At least Dr Dixon mentions that "The book’s one glaring omission is his departure from office, of which nothing is said. Perhaps that will come in the memoirs".

 and that At the end of the day, this is inevitably a partisan book. It is written by a politician understandably keen to justify his actions and the actions of his party.

It is a book by an “insider” for us outside. Later in the year we will have another book on this period by an “outsider” looking in. Read Mr Andrews’ book, but read Gareth Evans’ book too

I would arge that its a partisan review by some one who whilst not an Insider is clearly on the fringe.

Mr Andrews has returned to Government whilst Alun Davies remains on the back benches neither seem to have leaned their lessons and it seems that Welsh Labour will continue to mistake arrogance  for capability.

Minister Andrews and a Shotgun Wedding.

Yesterday I speculated whether WAG cuts make council merger less or more likely?

One problem I foresaw was  was one council dipping into reserves whilst  its potential makes cuts.

It is clear that Public Services Minister Leighton Andrews may have had this partly in mind when he  questioned the high levels of financial reserves held by some councils and suggested they could be used to help mitigate the effect of cuts.

This week Mr Andrews announced cuts totalling £146m to Wales’ 22 local authorities.

But giving evidence to an Assembly committee he pointed out that seven councils had reserves that amounted to more than 20% of their turnover, and that total reserves were approaching £1bn.

He said:

 “Reserves, it seems to me, are there for a number of reasons.“Sometimes they are there for prudent forward planning in the sense of budgeting for major capital investments that they develop.“Sometimes they are there against the arrival of a rainy day.“I think the rainy day has been here now for a year or two, and I think we have to ask very straightforwardly to what extent are those reserves being effectively used and to what extent can we really expect local government to carry reserves such as they are carrying at a time like this.”

There is of a third reason Mr Andrews missed and that a financial crisis could wipe millions off councils investment as occurred in the Iceland where Public sector bodies in Wales are still owed more than a third of the cash they had invested in Icelandic banks.

Eight councils, three universities and three former police authorities had almost £75m tied up in the country's banking sector which collapsed in 2008.

Neath Port Talbot council is due the most, with £8m of £20m outstanding, and Caerphilly council is owed £5.6m.

The Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA) said it was possible bodies may get nearly all the money back. but by 2012 they were still struggling

Leighton Andrews left his previous post as Education Minister following a row over his defence of a school which faced closure under his own surplus places policy.

The suspicion must be that Leighton has been brought as a enforcer to make sure that voluntary mergers of local authorities  will go through even if it amounts to a shotgun wedding

Though it remains to be sen if neither ,one ,or both potential partners want to go through with this.