Local Government reorganisation may be a botched job.

It looks like any Welsh Local Government ,will not be a root and branch job, but rather  a merger of existing councils.

 

 The Welsh Government commissioned Williams report on the future shape of public services in Wales is expected to be published on Monday.


The existing councils are likely to be the building blocks and as a result any changes will be the result of a series of mergers between councils in the same health board and the police force areas probably  cutting the number of county councils from "22 to 11" which could cost £200m-£300m. but would be cheaper than doing the job properly
So taking on board some of these principles, you could take an educated guess at some of the possibilities.
, 
So how will it look 

OK using the fact that this will be mergers within the Police and Health boards it could possibly look like

Caerphilly, Torfaen, and Blaenau Gwen
 Newport and Monmouthshire.
 Cardiff  and the Vale of Glamorgan.
 RCT and Merthyr.
 Bridgend, Neath Port Talbot and Swansea.
 Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire.
 Gwynedd, Anglesey,
 Conwy,  Denbighshire,
 Flintshire and Wrexham.
 Powys  will remain as it is

But that's Ten  so this may not be the case on Monday when the recommendations are made

But if this is the case its going to leave some with traditional loyalties to old county names in apoplexy.

If this is going to be the criteria then it may be the cheapest and swiftest option but that may not be the best option

But it beggars the question  . Since some councils are going about cutting Libraries Leisure centres whilst others seek to make drastic cuts elsewhere . Would it not be prudent to try and delay these cuts until reorganisation ? 

Finding that the council you has closed your leisure centre whilst there has been no move in the part that has merged with you could cause problems in the future.

.If these new authorities are to come about before the next elections then sped will be of the essence so scrutiny may not be as robust as we would hope and it may be the council may look like the result of welding two cars together, from two wreaks by cowboy mechanics which is dangerous and falls apart after a year  rather than complete rebuilding.


But shouldn't we have torn up the map and ignored the old borders? and at the same time give more powers to community councils as well as looking introducing STV for elections?

I suspect in a decade we will be back at the drawing board

Huw do you think you are.

It seems Incredible when you think about it gut Welsh education minister Huw Lewis   today urge people in Scotland to vote to remain in the UK in the September referendum.

He may be new to the job but  he has inherited  14 years of Labour led ducation policies in Wales that have failed welsh students at al levels

Mr Lewis, who studied at Edinburgh University, will call for a “new progressive contract between the nations and regions of the United Kingdom for the common benefit of all” and echo First Minister Carwyn Jones’ call for a constitutional convention

Education Minister Huw Lewis

The Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Labour AM will say that devolution should not be a “Trojan horse for separation” but can be used as a “reconnection point for progressive politics”.
Wales and Scotland, he will argue in an article published to coincide with his visit, face deep problems which they “could never solve in isolation.”

This coming from the Labour Party who main argument in Wales is "We are not the Tories" and who were in power from 1997 - 2010 where the idea of "progressive politics" was largely absent.
 
Warning of the impact on education, he will say:

 “Take the challenge we face in the sphere of education and skills. All the talk from the SNP about the impact independence would have on higher education seems frankly unreal. They insist that an independent Scotland would continue to be able to charge tuition fees for students from the remaining UK countries whilst not charging its own students.
“Even if an independent Scotland were allowed to remain in the EU (which is by no means guaranteed), it is reasonable to assume that it would be obliged to offer the same fee support to English, Welsh and Northern Irish students as it provides to Scottish students. The people I talk to in Scottish higher education are also very concerned about what impact an independent Scotland would have on its ability to continue accessing the £3bn annually available through the UK’s seven research councils.
“As they, and their compatriots in Wales face up to the fierce global challenge of university competitors in China, India, or South Korea, it seems bizarre that the we should be talking about putting up additional barriers to their success rather than looking at ways in which Wales and Scotland can collaborate in new areas to strengthen their research capacities and compete in the modern world.”

Is this a call for say the Scandinavian countries to unite under one Government  , How can Norway with about the same population as Scotland survive and its not even in the EU

If Huw Lewis is looking at a Trojan Horse  he may look at his own idea of a convention which probably could only come about if Labour win the next election and in which  Labour MPs rather than Welsh assembly or Scottish Parliament would seek to dominate.

And along with their Tory counterparts  are unlikely to give up thier powers and potentially their seats to give more devolution to Scotland and certainly not Wales.

In my last post I was asked ." If I agreed that the Welsh Assembly has not been a great success so far". and i honesty I had to answer yes.

But I suspect my reason for this is different from Gwylim who posed the question.and that the failing of the Assembly are due to its lack of parity with Scotland and the failure of the Labour party to run it properly.

For a minister of a devolved government that has not been a success to tel another which largely has that it should not go further is laughable.

Holtham: "Wales is treated like Runt of the Litter".

it is not often that this Blog finds "experts" agreeing with it    But as I  have been arguing that the proposed Tax varying powers  for the Welsh assembly are nit worth the salt it seems that that  Gerald Holtham, economist, Welsh government adviser and chair of the Holtham commission on the funding and finance of the Welsh government.
He told the Welsh affairs committee that the UK government's blueprint for devolving responsibility for a portion of income tax to Cardiff was so limited ministers in Cardiff would be reluctant to take the risk of holding a referendum to gain a power they could not use.

he said

“It is unlikely that the current Welsh Government or indeed a majority of Welsh politicians will care to call for and campaign in such a referendum.”

Suggesting that the UK Government may not expect AMs to trigger the referendum, he said:

Runt of the Litter

“If the Bill is just a piece of political theatre of legerdemain to give the impression of meeting Welsh aspirations or concerns but not embodying the intention of doing anything substantial, it may already be adequate for its purpose.”

Mr Holtham  was also sceptical about the other Westminster Government proposals  pointing out  that Wales is not permitted to have a different model of devolution to Scotland, stating:

 “Wales can have what Scotland has and nothing else, like the youngest child of a poor family that gets only hand-me-down clothes, whether appropriate or not in style or size.”
He told MPs that the revenues raised by minor taxes were “verging on the insignificant,” that the referendum was “highly loseable” and Wales was being treated as the “runt of the litter”.


But lets face it Westminster is unlikely to listen and taken that Mr Holman is an adviser  to the Assembly Government it could be that his remarks were addressed to Carwyn Jones and the Welsh Labour Party.

Because unless they start promoting Es Miliband  to  a major commitment to include sweeping more powers for Wales in their 2015 Manifesto short of Plaid making huge gains in the Assembly Elections the year after we are unlikely to see any powers devolved to Wales that will make a major difference .

But whilst I suspect Carwyn is lessening . I doubt very much his colleagues at Westminster are.

By 2016 Investors may prefer Scotland to the Rump.

I may mistaken  but the  Treasury’s announcement that it will underwrite Scottish debt after a Yes vote. Does not mean that a Independent Scotland will be debt free . Rather  as First Minister Alex Salmond  claims, an indication of the UK government’s willingness to ‘pre-negotiate’ the fiscal terms and conditions of Scottish independence. Making sure that in either case (YES or NO) . There will not be a financial crisis  as the "markets" the real people who run our economy get jittery .


Some like ,George Eaton in the New Statesman says, it is a reflection of the lack of confidence investors have in the Scottish economy to cope with the effects of independence. The Treasury’s pledge is an attempt to ward-off a rise in UK borrowing costs precipitated by a Scottish credit downgrading.

And he may have a point  but  to what extent are the Unionist side potentially undermining the Scottish economy with their constant negative attacks on the Scottish Economy and the future of an Independent Scotland.

Take Eatons appraisal

Owing to Scotland's weaker fiscal position, investors would demand higher returns on debt held by its government, which is precisely why the SNP was wrong to greet the announcement as a vindication. As the IFS (which has no stake in the race) recently noted, Scotland's lower birth rate and lower immigration rate means it automatically incurs a larger "fiscal gap" (the difference between spending and revenue) of 1.9%, compared with 0.8% for the UK. Even in the most optimistic scenario, Scotland would need to raise taxes or cut spending by an additional £2bn (such as through a 8p rise in the basic rate of income tax or an increase in VAT to 27%, or a 6% reduction in public spending) to achieve a sustainable debt level. Should oil revenues prove less buoyant and borrowing less cheap than the SNP anticipates, this figure could rise to £9.4bn (the equivalent of an 18p rise in the basic rate or a VAT rate of 36%), a scale of austerity that makes George Osborne look like a Keynesian. This doesn't mean that an independent Scotland wouldn't be economically viable, but it does mean that most voters would be worse off.

And yet as James Maxwell points out  the Unionist argument is not the only one that the "Markets may be considering"

 Firstly (and I may be wrong about this), but I think the Scottish government’s oil revenue estimates are based on an aggregate of revenue projections. So they don’t, as George and the IFS suggest, offer “the most optimistic scenario” – they are in fact tempered by the highly conservative estimates of the OBR. More optimistic estimates can be found in the work of Alex Kemp, professor of petro-economics at Aberdeen University (and official historian of North Sea oil). In 2011, Kemp estimated that oil would generate between £50bn and £100bn in tax over the next 10 years alone. I trust his judgement on these things more than I do the OBR’s – in 2011/12, North Sea revenues were £11.3bn.

Indeed the Treasury announcement, may be have had one eye on the fact that the rump of England,Wales ,Northern Ireland and not forgetting Cornwall, will have lost a huge amount of revenue after 2016 when or if Scotland becomes Independent. 

One wonders if there are investors just waiting for the chance to move on a New Norway and that the future might well be there, rather and a tired UK bankrupt of ideas other than promoting the City of London .

Me and the NHS a personnel experiance.

Some  20 years ago when living in London  I was taken into the Middlesex Hospital by ambulance  in a very series state.

It turned out that I had Type 1 Diabetes  and had almost entered a coma and that I was now insulin dependent and needed to inject myself twice a day

But that was not the half of it I was kept in hospital for tow weeks because the Diabetes was caused by Acromegaly and that I had a Tumour on my pituitary
gland that was causing it.




Acromegaly") is a syndrome that results when the anterior pituitary gland produces excess growth hormone (GH) after epiphyseal plate closure at puberty. A number of disorders may increase the pituitary's GH output, although most commonly it involves a GH-producing tumour called pituitary adenoma, derived from a distinct type of cell (somatotrophs).

Acromegaly most commonly affects adults in middle age] and can result in severe disfigurement, complicating conditions, and premature death if unchecked. Because of its pathogenesis and slow progression, the disease is hard to diagnose in the early stages and is frequently missed for years until changes in external features, especially of the face, become noticeable.
But in the end I needed a MRI scan so it could be confirmed and the Tumour located .

All the test were carried out whilst I was in hospital.

Within a few weeks I was admitted to the National Hospital for Neurosurgery operated on and almost immediately my condition improved to the extent that I ceased to be insulin dependent and within a month was free of Diabetes and the Acromegaly that caused it.

It is important for me to state now that the reason I was treated so swiftly is that the Doctors there wished to see what affect immediate surgery would have on some with the symptoms I had.

Now
last years later I began to experience acute pain in arm and saw my GP and he ordered Blood test and after a few appointments was diagnosed this time with type 2 diabetes  this time and given my history then saw the Endocrine specialist at the Royal Glamorgan (The Camilla)  who confirmed that it was likely  the Acromegaly had reoccurred.

I then had undergo an MRI scan which took a few months waiting and because it was inconclusive another one at 7:45 in the morning.

So I'm not surprised that the number of patients waiting longer than they should for diagnostic services like MRI scans and ultrasounds has trebled in the last two years.

Figures also show proportionately more patients in Wales face waits of over eight weeks than in England.
The Welsh government said health boards were working to address backlog issues.


I'm now on the waiting list for surgery in the Heath hospital hopefully in the next fewer months.

I First saw my GP in April last year so it has ben a long process compared with my previous experience . Though I was initially a  lot sicker then.

My experience is that the Doctors and Nurses here are doing a phenomenal job but they are being swamped  by the number of people attending surgeries and the outpatients is always full after 9:00 Am.

I'm not sure how much pouring more money into the system will improve the system maybe we should accept it as the price of progress in that we can diagnose and treat more ailments now.

One final story. As Acromegaly is rare I see a lot of junior Doctors who look at m, and  have to a visual diagnosis so I get to hear.

He's got a big Head and forehead
Big Nose
Protruding lower Jaw
Uneven paced teeth
Large Hands

This is often done with an embarrassed meant on their part, as they are virtually saying he's a Ugly Looking Bugger.

But as I say to them I wasn't a George Clooney lookalike when it all started.

Gordon Brown : The Federalist?

One of the strongest arguments the YES campaign in Scotland in the forthcoming Independence referendum is that Scotland is still ruled by the Conservatives in Westminster and that Scots have a different sense of Social Justice. 2The Common weal".


Now former PM Gordon Brown part time PM has come out of his long sulk in his Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath  constituency to claim that  further devolution would offer Scotland a “fairer deal” than independence,

The Scottish Parliament should be made irreversible, with “maximum devolution of powers in training, transport, health, the Crown Estates Commission and the running of elections

Mr Brown believes Scotland would be strengthened by proposed constitutional reforms to create a “union for social justice” in which the UK can pool and share resource

He said

: “I am of the view that the party that first created a powerful Scottish Parliament is best-placed to strengthen devolution and to create a stronger Scottish Parliament in a stronger UK.
“We can show how with our reforms, to be implemented by Labour administrations in Westminster and in Edinburgh, we can address some of the greatest social and economic challenges a future Scotland faces.”

SNP treasury spokesman Stewart Hosie said:

“Gordon Brown’s speech sounds as if he has no idea what is going on in the real world - the reality is that the welfare state is being dismantled by Westminster.
“George Osborne has announced £12 billion more welfare cuts, hitting the the most vulnerable people the hardest, and Labour are engaged in a Dutch auction with the Tories about who will cut the most.
“Scotland’s finances are stronger than the UK’s as a whole - we generate 9.9 per cent of UK tax revenues but get just 9.3 per cent of the spending, and therefore a smaller share of our national wealth is spent on welfare, which means that pensions and benefits are more affordable for Scotland.
“A majority of people in Scotland believe that decisions on tax and welfare should be taken in the Scottish Parliament, not Westminster - and the only way to achieve that is to vote Yes for an independent Scotland in September.”

What Brown seems to be saying is that Scots can have they cake an eat it . Indeed it comes so close tho federalism that you might as well call it that.


And where does this leave Wales there are perhaps some Nationalist who hope Scotland vote NO so that we in Wales are not left on our own against right wing English Tories out for revenge.

But Brown solution which would provoke a huge backlash amongst English MPs of any colour would leave Wales in the same position  anyway.

The late Gwyn Alf Williams  once said  something on the lines we have been around for a thousand years its time we were given the key of the Door.

It seems that if Scotland do not make the decision to leave the house entirely they will be given something like an Annex where they can live Independently within the main complex.

We in Wales however may have a key now but are still subject to parental curfews and threatened with confiscation.

But the answer is not to envy or begrudge Scotland it is to act on our own  stop having commissions who propose greater devolution (and are then ignored). and campaign for Independence now.

After the birth of the Irish Free State  Plaid  newspaper produced this cartoon

It translates as "After you with the Scissors"  Hopefully after Scotland Votes this autumn we ccan say "After you with the delivery van"

Powys Council. Confused? You will be.

In the 70's there great deal of frustrations amongst plaid members in the South that in areas like Gwynedd who had Plaid MPs members were still standing as Independents .

It was of course a tradition amongst the other parties as well and the argument was that Party politics should not take place at such a level and in any case "They (the voters) al know what I am" was put foward .

Time have changed in Gwynedd there may be a few Plaid members standing as Independents but most candidates  do so in the Party name and they are the largest group there .


Indeed this has ben reflected throughout Wales and Independents are no longer the power they were

 

---

Welsh Unitary Authorities
	Control	Con	Labour	LibDem	UKIP	Green	Plaid	Others
Blaenau Gwent	Lab		33					9
Bridgend	Lab	1	39	3			1	10
Caerphilly	Lab		50				20	3
Cardiff	Lab	7	46	16			2	4
Carmarthenshire			22				28	24
Ceredigion			1	7			19	15
Conwy		13	10	5			12	19
Denbighshire		9	18	1			7	12
Flintshire		8	30	7			1	24
Gwynedd			4	2			37	31
Isle of Anglesey			3	1			12	14
Merthyr Tydfil	Lab		24		1			8
Monmouthshire		19	11	3				10
Neath Port Talbot	Lab		52				8	4
Newport	Lab	10	37	1				2
Pembrokeshire	Ind	3	9	1			5	42
Powys	Ind	10	7	8				48
Rhondda Cynon Taff	Lab	1	60	1			9	4
Swansea	Lab	4	49	11				8
Torfaen	Lab	4	30				2	8
Vale of Glamorgan		11	21		1		7	7
Wrexham		5	23	4			1	19
Wales Totals		105	579	71	2	0	171	325

 But even the nature of the remaining Independence . With the idea that they are above Party politics becoming somewhat confused as they break up into separate groups and begin fighting each other.

In Ynys Mon this led to the Welsh Government attempting to gerrymander the council elections by creating multi wards and postponing the election.

The result however was the various Independent grouping united to run thew council.


Now we have a similar council of In Powys council leader David Jones today lost a vote of no confidence 

Mr Jones was forced to quit the post he has held for 19 months in a vote that ended up 40 against and 32 for.against .

After two rounds of votes Barry Thomas of the Non Political Group?? was voted in as the new leader. He started his role by dismissing the current Cabinet promising a new cabinet to be voted in by next Wednesday.

So once agai we have Idependents fighting amongst each other and leaving the poor electors confused especially as they face like all council the need to address their budget.

I now direct to you to the excellent Wales Eye who males  valiant attempt to make sense of this and explains it better than anybody has so far  , But I warn you you may end up being as confused as I was .

Which brings me to the point that Independents can no longer claim to bring stability to our councils  and that they are above the petty squabbles of political parties.

As Ynys Mom Powys and Pembrokeshire show having Independents in power leave you with no idea what they stand for .

How many Independents have political views or even are members of a political party that those who vote for them would reject.

Back in February the Tanned one  Peter Hain has said Labour would l face "closet Tories" when it took on independent candidates at May's local elections. 

He warned the Welsh Labour conference of a "wave of so-called independent councillors


 Plaid Cymru pointed out that Labour was in coalition with independents to run Carmarthenshire council.

When a student at Aber in the late 80's .students standing for election could not stand for election if they were members of a political party and this was retrospective so that you could not resign from the |Tories say and then stand.

I'm not suggesting thisas a policy for local government, but perhaps Independent councillors and candidates should be made to disclose any Party membership in their electoral addresses.