Gwynedd By-elections Plaid win both seats

There were two By-elections in  Gwynedd last night. and credit  to Blog Menai for being so up to date with the result

Diffwys a Maenofferen

Catrin Elin Roberts, Llais Gwynedd - 153
Mandy Williams Davies, Plaid Cymru - 210
Olaid Gain from Llaus Gwynedd

Plaid Gain


This was the second Byelection in  Diffwys a Maenofferen in this period Llais Gwyned had held the seat in a By-election in July 2010  when the result was

Llais Gwynedd 185 (50.5%; +1.2)
PC 181 (49.5%; +8.3)
[Lab 0 (0.0%; -9.6)]   

Penrhyndeudraeth 

Rhian Jones, Llais Gwynedd -233
 Dafydd Thomas, Annibynnol  (Independent) - 91
 Gareth Thomas, Plaid Cymru - 515

Plaid Hold

This could have been a difficult one for Plaid  as their former councilor, Dewi E Lewis,  was jailed for theft of £53 000 from the post office he ran and you would normally have expected a Backlash. It is possible that there was some sympathy for Evans and acceptance that he took the cash to keep his business afloat.

Hpwever it was  clearly a bad night for Llais Gwynedd and one wonders they will go the same way of Blanau Gwent Peoples Voice and the group in Torfaen. I suspect it will depend on how much in common they have apart from the school reorganisation issue and I suspect very little.


The result  means that Plaid now have a overall majority on Gwynedd council.

The I word or the F word.

There have been some interesting comments on the Syniadau Blog regarding Dafydd Elis Thomas comments on the Independence Issue which you can read here.

As I'm not a member of Plaid I can't tell people who are what their part policy should be but what intrigued me was some seemed to have a functionalist stance on membership being dependent on total support for Independence and the suggestion that those who took a Federalist stance should find another party such as the Liberal Democrats.

It would be sad to see people told they are not welcome because they question the meaning of the word Independence or even those who would like to take part of the journey as outlined some time back with an allegoric refence to the TrawsCumbrias bus journey.

Some will argue that a Nationalist Party like Plaid should have a clear and fixed idea if what it means by Independence  but it really is very difficult to actually do this and react to current events What ever happens the majority of the Welsh people must be carried with it and to do this then they must see that the party that will lead an Independent Wales are competent to do so

What the SNP have shown is that they are capable of taking Scotland to the next step Wales and Plaid are probably 10 years behind them.

In a perfect world I could find myself attracted to a form of federalism formed around a "Council of the Islands" resembling the original Benelux countries. Where Wales,Scotland Northern Ireland and England can meet an discuss issues of mutual interest have a common defense policy which is non-aligned and non-nuclear.

Alas I can'r see this happening and there does not seem to be Part advocating such a policy anywhere in the UK. The Libdem policy of federalism when they ever mention it  seems to be to devolve power in England in a similar way as it was in Wale. This has been exposed by the English Parliament campaigner Torque.

But Wales is not a Region of the UK it has a national Identity and a Federal solution that treats Wales in the same manner as the South East of England  is not the answer.

So I can't really see my Idea of a Council of the Islands " coming to any fruition but circumstances change and as people see the need for Wales and Scotland to express themselves nationally beyond events like the Rugby World come the whole relationship between the current members of the UK may throw up a number of solutions. Though It will be difficult for England to relinquish its dominant role or even admit it has one.

If you feel that this Blog is full of contradictions then you are right but then the concept of Independence  or the idea of Federalism are full of contradictions . Who among as have  all  the answers

Wales win against Namibia but it was not a fair fixture..

Don't get me wrong It was a fine Welsh performance this morning against Namibia and has eased my woories over the Fiji Game. But its a disgrace that Namibia were forced to play us only 4 days after playing South Africa. The fixtures should be fare not based on preferential treatment of the top tier nations based on "Fan appeal or broadcast considerations" as the IRB admits.

Samoan Centre Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu may have gone overboars with his twitter rant.

 "IRB, Stop exploiting my people. Please, all we ask, is fairness. If they get a week, give us a week. Simple. justice."he later added: "Ok, it's obvious the IRB are unjust. Wales get 7 days, we get 3. Unfair treatment, like slavery, like the holocaust, like apartheid."Give Wales 3 days off and give Samoa a week! We would kill them!""You can't get punished for speaking out against injustice. That would be unjust. Anyone can tackle a man. Try tackling injustice."

But he had a point over the unfairness of  making his side and other sides which are not seen in the top tier of Rugby play games with less of a break than those seen to be over  the top and his references to Slavery and the Holocaust allowed most of the media to miss the legitimacy of his argument.

Apart from being unfair it darn right dangerous. It was clear Namibia  were tiring badly in the Scrum at the end of the game against Wales and it could have resulted in a serious injury, The IRB should make sure that such discrimination should not happen again .

On another not surly  Bagpipes are much of a cultural  importance to Scotland as the Haka is to New Zealand? So why are they banned from the stands?

Danish Elections and Three Liberal parties

Further to my last post on the plight of the Libdems sister party in Germany the Free Democrats . I have just reads Ffranc Sais's Blog on the comparative succes of the Liberals in Denmark. Though I find his assertion that because there because there are two has two fully-accredited Liberal parties. That Danish Voters are getting Two parties for one is a bit optimistic.

In the  Danish Election the result was

There were Three what you could cal Classical Liberal Parties Standing.

• Venstre ( It translates as Left but means Liberals in actuality) a A centre rightFreemarket Liberal Party which is tied to Agranianism.
• Radikale Venstre  More accurately translated as Radical Liberals A centre Left Liberal Party 
• Liberal Alliance centre party based on Economic Liberalism which is currently not a member of the European Liberal grouping.

As you can see in the Election the parties aligned them selves in Left Right fractions

The Red Alliance

of the Social Democrats ,Radikale Venstr.Socialist Peoples Party and Red-Green Alliance
The Blue Alliance.

of Venstre,Danish People's Party ,Liberal Alliance,Conservative People's Party, and Christian Democrats (Who dis not win any seats)

So although they lost a seat the Social Democrats led by Neil Kinnock's daughter in law will form a government  because their alies the Left leaning Liberals andfLeft Red- Green alliance made gains

If I was a Liberal Democrat I would note not so much the presence of three Liberal parties in Denmark but the success of the Left leaning one  as they own party under Clegg drifts further to the right asset out in  the  Orange Book then  perhaps its a  time to  consider a move back towards the current Liberal Party after all its not just Denmark that has more than one and can the LibDems really contain those who are little more than Tories with a Coniscience  and those who like Ffranc Sais still have a bit of radicalism in them.

If I was you Kirsty. I'd look at Germany.

I must admit I raise my hat to La Pasionaria, in her political misdirection of the Lib Dems political woes with her speech to her party conference where she managed to grab some headlins with her claim
Lib Dems 'can learn Plaid's coalition lesson'. After all to concentrate on a rivals poor results in the Welsh Assembly Elections  draws attention  from the fact that under her leadership in Wales the Libdems

• Where reduced from 6 to 5 seats in a Assembly of 60
• So a huge fall in their vote especially in seats that they were running a close second.
• Saw 17 of their candidates lose tier deposits.

To be fair to her however it was hardly her fault , for she had grabbed the headlines with her attacks on the way the Assembly Government were running the NHS here and although there was an element of shroud waving she appeared to be the leading opposition member in the Assembly.

Like wise the Libdem also managed to gain some headlines on Education with which figuers that shows that the total spent on average per pupil in Wales is £604 less than the total spent per pupil on average in England. Though this has been masterfully shown to be a false argument by John Dixon in his Borthlas Blog. 

But event this use of the gift of attacking government on the NHS and Education.  Subjects that I doubt the public would never give a satisfied approval rating on. The Libdems in Wales suffered from reaction against their colleagues participation in a Tory  led coalition.

If  La Pasionaria is loking for lessons . Then I suggest she looks at the Libdems sister party in Germany the Free Democrats. (FDP)

In the national vote on September 27, 2009 the FDP increased its share of the vote by 4.8% to 14.6%, an all-time record so far. This percentage was enough to offset a decline in the CDU/CSU's vote compared to 2005, to create a CDU-FDP governing coalition in the Bundestag with a 53% majority of seats.

Since then however the FDP have had a drubing in a nuber of State Elections this year 

In Hamburg they did manane to gain 9 seats but

In Saxony-Anhalt they lost all their 7 seats

In Rhineland-Palaaden-Württembergtinate They lost all their 10 seats

In Baden-Württemberg election 2011 they lost 8 of their 15 seats .

In Bremen they lost al thier five seats

In the latest poll in Berlin they filled to win a seat.


In comparison The FDP partners the CDU/CSU have fared better and it is the junior partner that the voters appear to be deserting in droves

Though  its not something Labour should look at with relish.For the Opposition SPD have not been doing very well either .

The big winners in all these Elections have been the Greens and they now have ea seat in every Landtag and now lead tjhe administration in Baden-Württemberg. and it is of interest that Germany has not turned to right wing parties . In Berlin  the Pirate party a libertarian group concerned with civil rights  on the internet  for example won 15 seats.

Only in Scotland perhaps  so far has any Party appeared to have gained overwhelmingly from voters disillusionment with the Libdems in the Westminster coalition where the SNP seemed to have had almost total gain in these votes. 

Why didn't this happen in Wales? Well here La Pasionaria may be right in her analysis  but I very much doubt that knowledge of the problem facing her party will help her or the LibDems in the rest of the UKin the long run.

La Pasionaria climbs in the Lists

There are two posts on Subordinate Center which are of note

The latest is that La Pasionaria has jumped 19 p;aces in the Daily Telegraphs in its list of the top 50 most influential Liberal Democrats, placing the Welsh Party Leader at 31 this year.

So champagne all round From last to number 31 most impressive.

Subordinate Centre, in its usual manner copy in full the Telegraph's citation without comment here it is

A vocal member of the Welsh Assembly, Williams became Wales’ first female party leader when she was elected at the end of 2008. Having joined the Liberal party at the age of just 15, Williams is clearly something of a die-hard: she was a staunch campaigner for a Welsh Assembly in the 1997 referendum, and became an Assembly Member in its first ever election in 1999. She is struggling to give the Welsh Lib Dems a new identity but by comparison to her Celtic colleagues in Scotland the Welsh Lib Dems did well in the 2011 Assembly elections and Williams can take the credit for that, even though they lost one seat overall.

So that's the measure of LibDem success not doing as badly as their colleagues in Scotland and since when loosing thousands of votes and having only I AM directly elected out of 40 (La Pasionaria) and therefore relying on the Top up system ever be counted as success.

Subordinate Centre also give us a reprint of La Pasionaria interveiw in Wales on Sunday in which she claims Liberal Democrats at a UK level must not repeat the mistakes made by Plaid Cymru as a junior partner in a coalition

Suspend your disbelief when you read it . You may agree with her on her analysis of Plaids's campaign for this years Assembly :elections but to suggest that a party that is facing wipe out in the elections leading up to and including the next Assembly elections can learn from this.

But La Pasionaria seems to be making the case not for the LibDems in the Toxic Westminster coalition but to join the government in Cardiff bay.

In a obvious overture to Carwyn and Welsh Labour she said

, Lib Dems will not try and wreck First Minister Carwyn Jones’ budget if he brings forward plans for health and education which they can support.
She said: “We won’t pull any punches where we feel the Labour party are going wrong but nor will we create tensions where there is no need for them to exist.”
Stating that Wales needs “stable government,” she said: “Carwyn said himself his party hasn’t a monopoly on good ideas.
“He has to work with others and we are ready to play that constructive role if we feel the Labour party is serious about tackling educational outcomes, tackling the health service [and] making sure we’ve got good value for the budget that we’ve got.”ays..

But her problem is such is the lukewarm legislative programme that Carwyn and his Government have proposed so far . He can easily wait a few years or at least until after next May where local government elections will probably see the LbDem hemorrhaging Welsh councilors. further weakening La Pasionaria position where she will agree to almost any condition in order to escape the toxic effect of tier coalition with the Tories.

So will La Pasionaria have a higher influence in the Telegraph pole next year .She might well but only because some of those above have decided its time to desert a sinking ship.

Let me through I'm a politician.

At first I was impressed by Peter Hain  and other  polticians and community leaders actions with regards the men have been trapped by water at Gleision Colliery near Cilybebyll, Pontardawe in the Swansea Valley . As the local MP he seamed to be saying the right things and doing what is part of his job.

However his constant aperances in the Press conferences presents the danger  "that he is the Story".

I do not entriley blame in I could have easily entitled this "Let me through I'm from the BBC" . I accept there is a vital need for the public to be kept up to date but there must be a question of when the in thier frantic haste towards being first with the news  become a hindrance to the rescue operation as jaxxlander has already pointed out.

......there is something distasteful about how press and politicians seem to outnumber rescuers as events unfold at the mine in Pontardawe?.

 There was also something ghoulish about the speculation of the trapped miners as some of the press questions asked  of those actually conducting the rescue proved.

Can the vast number of media and people constantly on tap to add their comments which often add nothing to our knowledge and often revert to pure speculation which must prove distressing to the families involved . especially in the era of 24 Hour News become a potential hazard to the rescue operation.?

I admit Peter Hain is in a difficult position because if he hadn't turned up then some would be asking where he was and the presence of someone recognisable  by the public is a godsend to the media desperate to find the human touch. But is it absolutely necessary for him to appear with the rescuers and emergency services when they make a press statement?

I think the media is more to blame than Peter Hain here but as these sad events evolve we must ask ourselves what is more vital rescuing the trapped victims or the news event?