Looking into my Crystal Ball

• The year will start with a number of Labour party members announcing they support for a no campaign but they will be seen to have little influence.   

•  There will be a row in the Yes campaign  over whether they should compare the cuts from Westminster with a positive image of the Assembly. But this will strengthen the campaign

• The Yes campaign will be won a though with less than 50% voting. there will be a Yes majority in Cardiff. Only Monmouth, Newport and Flint will vote No.

• The referendum on the Alternative Vote will fail.although Wales and Scotland will have large votes for it.There will be a significant number of Ballots which will support the measure who will attempt to show preference for STV. 

• Although the referendum on AV will be lost the proposal to cut the number of MPs will carry on it will mean the end of Ynys Mon and Montgomery as Historic constituencies although they will remain at the Assembly.  

• There will be rumours of a number of Lib-Dems  splitting from the Party to join the existing "Liberal Party"  but it will come to nothing. 

• There will be a number of new Blogs from people standing for  the Assembly but these will cease by April.
• By the end of the year the Lib-Dems will have lost over 200 councilors through resignations who will now stand as independents this will not include the  many more they will lose in local elections.

• The Assembly elections will see Labour just failing to get an overall majority. The Lib-Dems with 4 seats will fall over backwards to join them in coalition and try to distance themselves from their Westminster colleagues.
• The Conservatives will lose 2 seats and will replace Nick Bourne as leader. They will be the first to propose the Assembly be called the Welsh Parliament. Nick Bourne will quit the Assembly by 2012.

• Plaid will gain 1 or  2 seats one of whom will be Helyn Fychan as Plaid lose Conwy  this however will be seen as a Plus. They will decide to let the Lib-Dems join the Labour Party in power if Dafydd Elis Thomas decide to stand for Presiding Officer. Otherwise they will back him for Education Minister.

• There will be a major campaign in support of S4C after the Assembly Elections. Support fro senior Plaid figures will depend on whether they are in government or not.

• Peter Black will get more and more ridiculous on his Blog and will be privately told by La Pasionaria to cool it.

• Adam Price will  not return to full time politics in the near future unless  there is an early by-election for the Assembly. 

• There will be a major defection from Labour to Plaid which will be announced at their Autumn conference. 

• The year will end with unrest in Labour over Ed Milibands leadership oddly this will not seem to have adverse effect on they Poll ratings which wil be 5% above the Tories. 

Faux Democracy

 The above cartoon is from a Private Eye issue in the 1970's.  It as always stuck in my mind, because it reflects  the question I have often asked myself. Am I in favour of direct democracy if the people then support policies (Capitol Punishment being a prime example ) which I myself  totally opposed to?.

The answer I would give is direct democracy is not about the views of the majority but a means in which all care able to express themselves. Particularly those who are ignored by main stream politicians, and the British media .

In recent Blogs both Peter Black  and Glyn Davies have posted in favour of the coalition's plans  "to allow popular online petitions to be debated in Parliament. Those receiving most support, probably 100,000 signatures, would be debated, with some possibly becoming bills".

On paper this looks like a major innovation in direct democracy. but as Paul Flynn points out.and I  reproduce it below....

Tony Blair did that. The most popular petition, with more than 180,000 people in support, opposed road pricing. If the same people had been asked if they wanted safer roads, with fewer accidents and less pollution they would also have said yes . World experience has shown that public will always vote to lower taxes and improved services.

"On Tony Blair's site, more than 70,000 supported the one word suggestion that Gordon Brown should "resign". And almost 50,000 signed up to the idea that TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson should become prime minister. In the last census 400,000 people gave their religion as Jedi and name Darth Vader as their religious leader.

Foolishly the Tories put this piece of vacuous populism into their manifesto so they have to go through the motions. I am sure that House Leader George Young is wearily resigned about wandering down this parliamentary cul-de-sac. There has been serious progress in opening up the parliamentary agenda through the Backbench Committee that has new control over some parliamentary time.

For the first time in ten years of war in Afghanistan parliament voted on our deployment there. The great reform that is long overdue is to free up private members business which is easily sabotaged by opponents - mostly Government nerds".

This argument Peter Black addresses.
He wrote...

That is a disgraceful attitude towards the people who employ him. Inevitably there will be those who abuse the process, but that is no reason to deny people the opportunity to put forward their own ideas and even to organise petitions to influence the legislative agenda. 

But  Peter does not say how these petitions can be selected. With modern communications there could be hundreds of such Petitions a year with over 100,000 signatures and it would not be difficult for an unscrupulous webmaster to create a program that simply copies names on to the Petitions and it would take major resources to check if they were genuine. Especially if signatories worried about E-Fraud only supplied their names.

But of course any Petition put forward for debate will be largely selected by the government of the day.
 
Just ask yourself if there was a major petition calling for a Republic and an end to Titles.Would this be debated in the House of Commons? Despite the fact although we are in a minority  a significant number of the electorate in the UK are Republicans who if they wished to sit in the House of Commons (or our Assembly)  must swear allegiance to the Monarch and their Heirs and cannot it reality challenge the position of the Monarch in the House.

In actuality what will happen is that we will have petitions inspired by the Right-Wing media which government ministers will pick according to the perceived popularity  and tell us we are participating actively in government
.
If the views of the people are to be heard then replace the First past the Post system with STV where the concerns of the minority who are excluded by the current system can be expressed. 

 

Bah Humbug

No it as alright even an old cynic like National Left cannot help but wish everyone Nadolig Llawen regardless of whether you see Christmas as a secular holiday (or both) and hope the message of peace and goodwill carries on into the New Year.

Can the Yes campaign attack the Westminster cuts?

Both Valleys Mam and Plaid Wrecsam have drawn attention to the spat between Peter Black and  Leighton Andrews on Twitter and both used the "Handbags at Dawn" simile. The argument between our two "distinguished" politics highlighted with Peter calling Leighton a cretin.

However we must look at the deeper implications of this unedifying  correspondence. and it is simply can a Yes campaign be run in favour increasing powers for National Assembly without making a comparison with a Right of centre Westminster coalition and Left of centre  Assembly government.

Clearly if this argument  was to be carried out by the Yes campaign it would be difficult for the Lib-Dems and Tories who support the measures to back the official campaign and whilst there could well be a advantage (which has not happened in previous referenda) in making such a comparisons wit a Tory led government it does seem that unless Labour are prepared to be accused of sacrificing National unity for future political advantage, they should cease to make such an argument through the "Yes" campaign.

And yet it would mean that those who were seeking greater powers could be loosing a major advantage.Perhaps  the next Yougov poll on the referendum in Wales should ask the question.

Do you believe that greater powers to the Welsh Assembly will make Wales less or more vulnerable to cuts from Westminster?

Some would argue that this is far from the point of the proposals, and any argument in this manner would be a false one. However the campaign could well be won or lost on such an argument that Wales will be better protected by a more powerful Assembly;But can the "Yes" campaign make such a claim?

Election expenses Spreadsheet.

If you wish to have a copy of the spreadsheet I simplified for the Expenditure for Wales email me at glynbeddau@googlemail.com and I'll send either  an excel or Open office copy of the spreadsheet.

Some Thoughts on the Election Expenditure

If you have read ny last three posts you will have seen a list of the expenditure by Party in the last General Election in Wales.
There are a number of interesting Points.

Plaid 
Spent over £24,0000  for  a 4th place in Aberconwy
Were the  Highest spender in Cardiff West £9,204,47 and received 7% of the vote whilst the Liberal Democrats spent £636.93 and received 17.5% of the vote.
Liberal Democrats 
Spent over £20,000 than the winning Labour Candidate in Merthyr Tydfil and Newport East.
Spent 1,520.93  (18.3% of Vote) in Swansea East and 22,701.65 in Swansea West  (33.2%)and £30.617.11 Newport East (37%) and £1,349.35(16.6) in Newport West .
Spent £190.00 (13.8)% n the Cynon Valley
Conservatives
Spent  £585.69 (585.69(7.5% of the vote) in Merthyr Tydfil
Labour  spent £446.95 (7.1%) in Montgomeryshire. and 2i,211.57(33.4% of vote).

When you look at the figures it is  hard to see to what extent expenditure makes a difference but it is clear in marginal constituencies you have to spend big.

Perhaps oddly the interesting result  may have been Torfaen

Green 438 Votes £37. Spent.
Labour 16847  Votes £2,96255.Spent.
Con  7541 Votes £148.20 Spent.
Independent 607 Votes £1.756.00 Spent.
BNP 1657 Votes £400.00 Spent.
Lib-Dem 6264 Votes  £589.00 Spent .
Independent 1419 Votes £600.00 Spent.
UKIP 862 Votes £1100.00 Spent.
Plaid 2005 votes £1,497.00 Spent.

In many other Welsh Consistencies just one Party spent more than the whole expenditure in Totfaen

It is it pity Plaid Panteg no longer blogs. I would like to know whether  the people of Torfaen felt remote from the democratic  process during the election as opposed say Aberconwy .
To my mid  the disparity between th money spent in Torfaen and marginal consistencies is an argument for PR especially STV because Parties would tend to treat each constituency as winnable  for at least one seat and spending would be spread more equally.
This would mean that voters at least will believe their vote will count. and it will make scrutiny  of such expenditure more equal and open.

Expenditure in 2010 election (Dwyfor Merionnydd-Swanse East)