Not even the most optimistic Plaid supporter would claim that the result of 2010 General Election ,was anything but a bitter disappointment for the Party.
The failure to win any of the hoped for seats of Ynys Mon, Ceredigion Aberconwy or even Llanelli , meant that the Party seemed to have hit a brick wall when it comes to increasing thier number to Westminster.
I am not sure what the opposite of a Pyrrhic Victory is but it is possible that Plaid may this time next year be thinking that they had in fact been lucky to not have made thier hoped for gains.
I have a precedent for this argument.
In 1997 the only seat that Plaid could really hope to gain was Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. In a year when Tony Blair's New Labour won the General Election by landslide and ended years of Toy government. The loss of the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, seat would have probably resulted great resentment towards Plaid by Labour members in Wales.
17,907 voted for Labour in the seat in 1997. Now if we take into account the Yes majority in the Assembly referendum for Wales as a whole was 6721 we can see that the majority of 22,996 in Carmarthen was vital and although it was dramatic the fact that it was last to declare is irrelevant in this case.
Would all of those Labour voters who voted Yes had done so if they had lost the seat in this County. It is possible they would not have and this resentment may also have spilled over to large past of Wales.
So I am proposing that it is highly possible that Plaids failure to advance in the election of 1997 resulted in a Yes vote a few months later.
Now move forward to the 2010 election if Plaid had one just two Labour seats in Wales (Ynys Mon and Llanelli) then this would certainly put a strain on Plaid -Labour relations and possibly damaged the One Wales Agenda. Disunity in the Welsh Assembly government resulting in a No vote in 2011.
If there was a No vote then Plaid would in no doubt suffer in the later May Assembly Elections.
However Plaid with a Yes vote behind could easily make seat gains, and place themselves in a strong position not only for the One Wales Agenda to continue but to argue for a greater say in it.
And that’s my hypothesis I am sure some may reject it outright but I think it should be considered .
National Left - Wales needs a progressive left future.
Monday, 30 August 2010
Saturday, 28 August 2010
Who Agrees with Nick now? Not Welsh voters it seems.
During the so called leaders debate leaders debate one phrase was prominent and that was of course
“I agree with Nick”
But it was not long before it was Nick saying
“I agree with Dave”
The Lib-Dems chose to enter I coalition with the Tories and proceeded to drop or water down many of the proposals that people were agreeing with Nick on that Subordinate Central were able to boast that opinion polls just weeks before the general election put them on 29% in Wales,
There seems to be no mention of the recent Yougov Poll on intentions at the Welsh Assembly Elections (lets call it the Senedd if we win the referendum) which puts them on 10% on the Constituency vote and 9% on the regional vote.
But it is in Mid Wales that they vote has collapsed in 2007 the vote were
LD ….9% 6%
ere must be concern by the Liberal Democrats they won Two of the eight constituency seats last time (Montgomery and Brecon and Radnorshire) and hold two of these seats (Ceredigion and Brecon and Radnorshire) at Westminster) on this poll even La Pasionaria‘s majority of 5,354 (18.6%) looks dodgy.
Of course this is one Poll and there a long way to go but it does explain the silence at Subordinate Central and perhaps the silence over the Institute of Fiscal Studies report that the last Budget was regressive.
Peter Black yesterday made a spirited defence (or perhaps laughable) of his government position But he concentrated like his leader on the aspiration of reducing unemployment through trickle down economics. But have a read anyway he has worked hard at it.
But Let me ask you all a question.Do you agree with Nick now?
“I agree with Nick”
But it was not long before it was Nick saying
“I agree with Dave”
The Lib-Dems chose to enter I coalition with the Tories and proceeded to drop or water down many of the proposals that people were agreeing with Nick on that Subordinate Central were able to boast that opinion polls just weeks before the general election put them on 29% in Wales,
There seems to be no mention of the recent Yougov Poll on intentions at the Welsh Assembly Elections (lets call it the Senedd if we win the referendum) which puts them on 10% on the Constituency vote and 9% on the regional vote.
But it is in Mid Wales that they vote has collapsed in 2007 the vote were
Mid and West Wales
Constituency Region
Lab… 19.2% 18 .4%
Con …23.1% 22.9%
Plaid…35.7% 31.0%
LD…..20.1 % 13.3%
Others 1.9% 14.4%
Latest Yougov Poll
Constituency Region
Lab….31% 34%
Con …21% 23%
LD ….9% 6%
Plaid ...34% 31%
Others .6% 6%
ere must be concern by the Liberal Democrats they won Two of the eight constituency seats last time (Montgomery and Brecon and Radnorshire) and hold two of these seats (Ceredigion and Brecon and Radnorshire) at Westminster) on this poll even La Pasionaria‘s majority of 5,354 (18.6%) looks dodgy.
Of course this is one Poll and there a long way to go but it does explain the silence at Subordinate Central and perhaps the silence over the Institute of Fiscal Studies report that the last Budget was regressive.
Peter Black yesterday made a spirited defence (or perhaps laughable) of his government position But he concentrated like his leader on the aspiration of reducing unemployment through trickle down economics. But have a read anyway he has worked hard at it.
But Let me ask you all a question.Do you agree with Nick now?
Thursday, 26 August 2010
Clegg and Lib-Dems backed regressive budget
Liberal Democrat leader whose “not in charge” of the country when David Cameron mind is understandably elsewhere after the birth of his new child, has defended the coalition government's analysis of the Budget.
Mr Clegg said a report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), which said the Budget has hit poorest families the hardest, was "by definition partial".
"It does not include the things we want to do to get people off benefits and into work,"
If the government plans were to create millions of jobs. Clegg, would in any case be talking about an aspiration surely? No government plans could guarantee they would bring employment unless they created jobs by a form of Roosevelt’s New Deal (as opposed to the last governments version in the UK which was just a slogan and little more than an attempt to put a plaster on a gaping wound.).
Indeed it is interesting that in The Orange Book: Reclaiming Liberalism (Liberator) 2004 that (Four of the contributors of which are now part of the coalition government). Clegg argued that the freeemarket was the solution to our social problems. As opposed to the original “Orange book” “We can conquer Unemployment (1929) in which The Liberals under David Lloyd George had campaigned on a comprehensive programme of public works. Not to dissimilar to the New Deal, and in many ways more imaginative that Labours position at the time.
The main thrust of the current coalition government is to" help people back to work" by cutting benefits which is somewhat in tune with the ideas of the latter Orange book . The fact that there are very few jobs for people forced of benefit and the reluctance of employers to take on the long term unemployed eludes them.
Clegg was a cheerleader for the last budget, and you don’t have to be an economic expert to realise who would be the real victims of George Osborne policies then and the IFS report confirm our suspicions..
Can those on the Left of the Lib-Dems who were opposed to the latest Orange book and have still have some vestige of believe in social liberalism and honesty such as those in the Beveridge Group. really carry on in a Party that is becoming indistinguishable from its coalition partners?
Mr Clegg said a report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), which said the Budget has hit poorest families the hardest, was "by definition partial".
"It does not include the things we want to do to get people off benefits and into work,"
If the government plans were to create millions of jobs. Clegg, would in any case be talking about an aspiration surely? No government plans could guarantee they would bring employment unless they created jobs by a form of Roosevelt’s New Deal (as opposed to the last governments version in the UK which was just a slogan and little more than an attempt to put a plaster on a gaping wound.).
Indeed it is interesting that in The Orange Book: Reclaiming Liberalism (Liberator) 2004 that (Four of the contributors of which are now part of the coalition government). Clegg argued that the freeemarket was the solution to our social problems. As opposed to the original “Orange book” “We can conquer Unemployment (1929) in which The Liberals under David Lloyd George had campaigned on a comprehensive programme of public works. Not to dissimilar to the New Deal, and in many ways more imaginative that Labours position at the time.
The main thrust of the current coalition government is to" help people back to work" by cutting benefits which is somewhat in tune with the ideas of the latter Orange book . The fact that there are very few jobs for people forced of benefit and the reluctance of employers to take on the long term unemployed eludes them.
Clegg was a cheerleader for the last budget, and you don’t have to be an economic expert to realise who would be the real victims of George Osborne policies then and the IFS report confirm our suspicions..
Can those on the Left of the Lib-Dems who were opposed to the latest Orange book and have still have some vestige of believe in social liberalism and honesty such as those in the Beveridge Group. really carry on in a Party that is becoming indistinguishable from its coalition partners?
Wednesday, 25 August 2010
GCSE in Wales the Today programm get a B
The Today programme yesterday when reporting on the GCSE results, chose to spend some time on the fact that figures show 66.4% of pupils in Wales received A* to C grades, compared to 69.1% for all of the UK. (In which they mean England and Northern Ireland).
They then dispatched a reporter to Port Talbot who interviewed a Head master who suggested that social deprivation or la funding gap could be responsible for this 2.7% difference.
Now I don’t have any problem with the facts are they are, but am I’m being paranoid in thinking that the BBC news in London ,and the Today programme in particular have a informal policy of only portraying Wales negatively?
This often seems to be the case can anyone point to any positive reporting on Wales coming from the Today programme.
But to go back to this Gap in grades why not ask the obvious question.
Are examinations in Wales harder?
There are 5 Exam boards conducting GCSE
AQA
CCEA
Edexcel
OCR
WJEC
Scotland of course (at least I realise it unlike the BBC and Today programme) has a different system and Exam Board
Of the of 5 however the WJEC is by far the largest in Wales and there it could easily be possible that their standards are higher certainly within a 3% margin.
Perversely I admit of course they could have lower standards and the gap could be actually larger.
However I do not know what the truth is, but surely this should be considered when looking at the figures and a few simple questions could be asked.including
Why do schools choose different exam boards? Could it because some have a better pass rate? Thereby increasing the schools own stats?
Do Universities take into account the Exam Board when judging applications based on their interpretation on the degree of hardness of the curriculum of the different boards?
It would be interesting to see if there were any studies of this.
I leave you with another thought.
Looking at all the reports and pictures of pupils receiving their results. It seems that only attractive people get high marks. I received only 3 O’levels from Pontypridd Boys Grammar School clearly the reason was not my own lethargy or lack of learning but I was an (and still am) ugly sod.
They then dispatched a reporter to Port Talbot who interviewed a Head master who suggested that social deprivation or la funding gap could be responsible for this 2.7% difference.
Now I don’t have any problem with the facts are they are, but am I’m being paranoid in thinking that the BBC news in London ,and the Today programme in particular have a informal policy of only portraying Wales negatively?
This often seems to be the case can anyone point to any positive reporting on Wales coming from the Today programme.
But to go back to this Gap in grades why not ask the obvious question.
Are examinations in Wales harder?
There are 5 Exam boards conducting GCSE
AQA
CCEA
Edexcel
OCR
WJEC
Scotland of course (at least I realise it unlike the BBC and Today programme) has a different system and Exam Board
Of the of 5 however the WJEC is by far the largest in Wales and there it could easily be possible that their standards are higher certainly within a 3% margin.
Perversely I admit of course they could have lower standards and the gap could be actually larger.
However I do not know what the truth is, but surely this should be considered when looking at the figures and a few simple questions could be asked.including
Why do schools choose different exam boards? Could it because some have a better pass rate? Thereby increasing the schools own stats?
Do Universities take into account the Exam Board when judging applications based on their interpretation on the degree of hardness of the curriculum of the different boards?
It would be interesting to see if there were any studies of this.
I leave you with another thought.
Looking at all the reports and pictures of pupils receiving their results. It seems that only attractive people get high marks. I received only 3 O’levels from Pontypridd Boys Grammar School clearly the reason was not my own lethargy or lack of learning but I was an (and still am) ugly sod.
Monday, 23 August 2010
A Labour-SNP coalition in 2011?
I’m not sure if this is just a case of The Scotsman or the Labour Party bring mischievous. The paper claims that.
A source close to Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray told The Scotsman a tentative approach has been made to one of his aides over whether he would be willing to strike a deal in a "post-Alex Salmond era".
I always take the term “a source” or a “senior party figure” with a pinch of salt, as I believe that this is usually cover for a correspondents extrapolation of an interview, or even merely speculation.
Anyway the SNP have pointed to recent opinion poles which show they are closing the gap on Labour, and that next years Holyrood elections have it all to play for.
However the article does point out to a potential dilemma in Scotland, because it is highly unlikely that either Party will have an overall majority, and this leads to some interesting scenarios
Labour often behaves like a boy who threatens to take the ball away if he’s not allowed to have a glamorous role in a game of football. They need reminding its not their ball but the people of Scotlands
A source close to Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray told The Scotsman a tentative approach has been made to one of his aides over whether he would be willing to strike a deal in a "post-Alex Salmond era".
I always take the term “a source” or a “senior party figure” with a pinch of salt, as I believe that this is usually cover for a correspondents extrapolation of an interview, or even merely speculation.
Anyway the SNP have pointed to recent opinion poles which show they are closing the gap on Labour, and that next years Holyrood elections have it all to play for.
However the article does point out to a potential dilemma in Scotland, because it is highly unlikely that either Party will have an overall majority, and this leads to some interesting scenarios
- The largest Party could as SNP have done quite successfully rule alone on a vote by vote situation where only a vote of no confidence could bring them down.
- They could form a coalition with the Greens, Independents or socialist parties but this would be depending on the numbers.
- They could form a coalition with the Lib-Dems, but could Labour (or the SNP) enter coalition with a Party which at the same time is in hock to the Tories in Westminster I doubt it.
- I think we can leave out a coalition between either Party and the Tories.
- A coalition between Labour and the SNP. However this would depend on Labour being the largest Party because there is no way at the moment that Labour would be junior partners taking orders from Alex Salmond or any leader of another party.
Labour often behaves like a boy who threatens to take the ball away if he’s not allowed to have a glamorous role in a game of football. They need reminding its not their ball but the people of Scotlands
Saturday, 21 August 2010
How many Welsh Labour Cabinet members have there been?
I ask this question because Syniadau reports that Diane Abbot has carried her Labour leadership campaign to Scotland and will spend over a week there.
She is reported as saying.
“I have not spent a week and a half in Wales. I genuinely think the Scottish Labour party has always had a very fundamental role in British Labour politics. In a way the Scottish Labour movement is the keeper of the flame when it comes to socialism. I think whoever wins (in Scotland) deserves to win overall.”
Interesting! Does this mean that Wales is of no importance to Abbot, and to Labour as a whole apart for supplying lobby fodder for Labour machine?
Well Yes.
In every election since 1923 .The largest number of MPs from Wales were from the Labour Party, and for most of the period after it provided the vast majority of Welsh MPs. Even in 1931 when Labour were almost wiped out in the rest of Britain when Ramsey McDonald formed the National Government., of the 52 reaming seats 15 were from Wales.
And yet what has been the “Welsh” influence on Labour?
Well you can point to Aneurin Bevan, and without a doubt his experience of the South Wales Miners Federation welfare programme influenced his thinking on the National Health Service and Bevan's name is still invoked by Labour MPs (who then betray his legacy) throughout the UK; But how many other Welsh MP’s have been placed in a position of power in a Labour Cabinet?
Precious few.
If we were to exclude the Secretary of State for Wales.Very few members of Labour Cabinets were from Wales and if we were to further exclude those who were born outside Wales then you would be hard pressed indeed to find them.
Both James Callaghan and Michael Foot only represented Welsh constituencies as a means to enter Parliament and abandoned them to retire to their farm in East Sussex (Callaghan) and house in Hamstead (London).
I’ve no idea what Peter Hain intends to when he ceases to represent Neath but I suspect he to will leave the area..
Compare this with Scotland and the members from that country who have found places in Labour Cabinets over the years, and of course in the last one Both Prime Minister and Chancellor were Scots who represented Scottish Constituencies amongst others who were in prominent positions.
So I can understand Abbots reluctance to canvass for votes in Wales because in her mind (and to the rest of the Labour party). Wales is irrelevant.
I remember when I first started having an interest in Politics. The saying
“They’d vote for a Donkey if it was Labour”.
Or the rumour that a Welsh Labour MP had only spoken once in a Commons debate and that was to call for the Windows to be opened because of the heat.
My view over the years has changed somewhat, I believe we have sent some very capable Labour members to Westminster but they have been met discrimination and have been affected by a form of “Cultural Cringe”. Where they believed that someone who went to Oxbidge had had a refined accent were somehow more able than them and deferred to them.
Of course there will be Welsh MP’s elected to the “Shadow Cabinet” in the future as there nearly always have been but when it comes to the real job what happens?
They are dropped PDQ.
Some of the Labour Leadership contenders have indicated that they would prefer to appoint members which on past experience will mean fewer Welsh members. After 70 years perhaps it’s time for Labour Party members in Wales to stop seeking to be “a big fish in a small pond” and look to using their talents to serve Wales and not the Part machine that only grids them up.
She is reported as saying.
“I have not spent a week and a half in Wales. I genuinely think the Scottish Labour party has always had a very fundamental role in British Labour politics. In a way the Scottish Labour movement is the keeper of the flame when it comes to socialism. I think whoever wins (in Scotland) deserves to win overall.”
Interesting! Does this mean that Wales is of no importance to Abbot, and to Labour as a whole apart for supplying lobby fodder for Labour machine?
Well Yes.
In every election since 1923 .The largest number of MPs from Wales were from the Labour Party, and for most of the period after it provided the vast majority of Welsh MPs. Even in 1931 when Labour were almost wiped out in the rest of Britain when Ramsey McDonald formed the National Government., of the 52 reaming seats 15 were from Wales.
And yet what has been the “Welsh” influence on Labour?
Well you can point to Aneurin Bevan, and without a doubt his experience of the South Wales Miners Federation welfare programme influenced his thinking on the National Health Service and Bevan's name is still invoked by Labour MPs (who then betray his legacy) throughout the UK; But how many other Welsh MP’s have been placed in a position of power in a Labour Cabinet?
Precious few.
If we were to exclude the Secretary of State for Wales.Very few members of Labour Cabinets were from Wales and if we were to further exclude those who were born outside Wales then you would be hard pressed indeed to find them.
Both James Callaghan and Michael Foot only represented Welsh constituencies as a means to enter Parliament and abandoned them to retire to their farm in East Sussex (Callaghan) and house in Hamstead (London).
I’ve no idea what Peter Hain intends to when he ceases to represent Neath but I suspect he to will leave the area..
Compare this with Scotland and the members from that country who have found places in Labour Cabinets over the years, and of course in the last one Both Prime Minister and Chancellor were Scots who represented Scottish Constituencies amongst others who were in prominent positions.
So I can understand Abbots reluctance to canvass for votes in Wales because in her mind (and to the rest of the Labour party). Wales is irrelevant.
I remember when I first started having an interest in Politics. The saying
“They’d vote for a Donkey if it was Labour”.
Or the rumour that a Welsh Labour MP had only spoken once in a Commons debate and that was to call for the Windows to be opened because of the heat.
My view over the years has changed somewhat, I believe we have sent some very capable Labour members to Westminster but they have been met discrimination and have been affected by a form of “Cultural Cringe”. Where they believed that someone who went to Oxbidge had had a refined accent were somehow more able than them and deferred to them.
Of course there will be Welsh MP’s elected to the “Shadow Cabinet” in the future as there nearly always have been but when it comes to the real job what happens?
They are dropped PDQ.
Some of the Labour Leadership contenders have indicated that they would prefer to appoint members which on past experience will mean fewer Welsh members. After 70 years perhaps it’s time for Labour Party members in Wales to stop seeking to be “a big fish in a small pond” and look to using their talents to serve Wales and not the Part machine that only grids them up.
Thursday, 19 August 2010
Freedom or Subordinate Central
About a month ago Insidious Produced this brilliant critique
of Subordinate Central. I hope they don't mind if I reproduce it because it needs a further airing because of recent events.
 |
| Insidious' Guide to Subordinate Central |
A recent posting on the Subordinate Centre Blog entitled.
"Minister rebuffed on Alcohol" which was a comment on Wales Office Minister David Jones intervention to rule out a transfer of powers over the the licensing of alcohol has led to a number of comments from other bloggers including Borthlas, Syniadau, jaxxland and Ramblings.
Now you could argue that We are the usual suspects in our criticism of "Subordinate Central" but the extraordinary thing is the reaction of Peter Black.
In a number of the Blogs he has posted the same comment.which I will save him some time in repeating below.
"What is bizarre is how the neutral reporting of a story by an independent though Lib Dem inclined blog is taken as a sign of party policy. Official Lib Dem policy is to devolve justice powers to the Assembly along with administrative control of police and prisons. Licensing would be included in that package. We cannot do Edwina's bidding via an LCO as she well know because licensing falls outwith the 22 areas of competence in the 2006 Act".
Strangely (Perhaps because it is a Plaid Blog and in a similar position) Rambling somewhat accepts Peter's claim that Subordinate Centre is "Independent Blog".
But you only have to look at it, to realise that the main contributors are the Lib-Dem Am's (all 5 of them). Only yesterday there was a post by La Passionaria on the first 100 days of the coalition.and as I pointed out in my post on Welsh Party Websites it seems at times to have more official press releases than the official Welsh Lib-Dem website.
But for a supposedly for a Independent blog can anybody tell me when a Lib-Dem supporter posted a a piece contrary to the party leadership?.
If Subordinate Center caries on in its present guise then I'm afraid that Peter Black and the rest of the Lib-Dems must take some responsibility for the posts and the criticism that goes with it.
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