Plaid should seriously fight Newport West By-election.

So in a few days we have seen two contrasting Welsh Polls , which for the first time in what seem age seem to show a marked improvement in  Plaid Cymru in ages.

Professor Roger Awan-Scully once again has bee scrunching the numbers.

When interpreting these results, in particular, it is probably worth noting some things about how the poll was conducted. First, that it was a telephone poll, and not an online survey like the Welsh Political Barometer polls carried out by YouGov. Second, the sampling for this particular poll was conducted by ICM across quite a long period of time – from 7th to 23rd February. (In contrast, the recent Barometer poll sampling occurred between 19-22 February). Given the various political events during this period, the levels of support reported for the parties may well have been affected by when people were spoken to.
Anyway, what did ICM find? First here are their results for a Westminster general election (with, for the purposes of comparison, the figures from this week’s Barometer poll alongside):

  

Party	ICM	YouGov
Labour	42%	35%
Conservatives	33%	29%
Plaid Cymru	13%	14%
Liberal Democrats	8%	6%
UKIP	3%	6%
Others	3%	8%

The clear difference is of course the change in the Labour vote  and the 8% others which reflects the  18% UK wide support for the newly formed Independent Group seem to be garnering.

The Big story form a Welsh view point is in the Assembly polls.

Party	ICM	YouGov
Labour	34%	32%
Plaid Cymru	27%	23%
Conservatives	23%	26%
Liberal Democrats	7%	8%
UKIP	5%	7%
Others	4%	5%

Professor Roger Awan-Scully writes   

Two things are immediately noticeable about these figures. The first is that ICM put Plaid Cymru in a rather better position than YouGov; this repeats the findings from last year, when – as noted here – Plaid did a bit better in polls from ICM and Sky Data than in near-contemporaneous polls from YouGov. Quite why this should be I am unsure. What we can be rather more sure about is that the 27 percent in this poll is Plaid’s highest score for the constituency ballot on any poll since an NOP poll early in the campaign for the 2003 National Assembly election.

The second important thing to note is that these figures for the National Assembly also show a significant Labour decline on the last such ICM poll a year ago. Then Labour was on 40 percent support on the constituency ballot. There seems little doubt that Labour support has fallen, even if we are unsure about the extent of the decline.
Using once again the assumption of uniform national swings from the last election, this poll projects six constituencies to change hands for the National Assembly. Plaid Cymru are projected to pick up Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West and Llanelli from Labour, and Aberconwy from the Conservatives; the Tories in turn are projected to gain the Vale of Glamorgan from Labour.

For the regional list vote, ICM found the following:

Party	ICM	YouGov
Labour	32%	29%
Plaid Cymru	25%	23%
Conservatives	22%	24%
Liberal Democrats	6%	6%
UKIP	6%	6%
Others	9%	12%

These findings also show a Labour decline since the last ICM poll twelve months ago (when Labour was on 36 percent for the list ballot), and again shows rising support for Plaid Cymru.

Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
North Wales: 2 Plaid, 2 Conservative
Mid & West Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP

These figures thereby generate the following overall result for the National Assembly:

 Labour: 25 seats (22 constituency, 3 regional)

Plaid Cymru 19 seats (11 constituency, 8 regional)Conservatives: 14 seats (6 constituency, 8 regional)Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)UKIP: 1 seat (1 regional)

It will be interesting  to see how much with a rapidly changing UK scene if Plaid can seize on this and start looking  like a Party on a roll and start rising even further at the moment  only Ynys Mon  looks like a target seat in Westminster.

So I wonder if the Party buoyed up with the apparent mini-surge actually have a serious campaign in the forthcoming by-election. in  Newport West .

The by-election will take place on 4 April 2019 following the death of Paul Flynn MP. and on paper looks like  a poor ground for Plaid's prospect

General Election 2017: Newport West

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Paul Flynn[5]	22,723	52.3	+11.1
	Conservative	Angela Jones-Evans[6][5]	17,065	39.3	+6.8
	UKIP	Stan Edwards	1,100	2.5	-12.7
	Plaid Cymru	Morgan Bowler-Brown [5]	1,077	2.5	-1.5
	Liberal Democrat	Sarah Lockyer	976	2.2	-1.7
	Green	Pippa Bartolotti[7]	497	1.1	-2.0
Majority			5,658	13.0	+4.3
Turnout			43,438	67.5	+2.6
Registered electors			64,399
	Labour hold		Swing	+2.2

General Election 2015: Newport West^[8]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Paul Flynn	16,633	41.2	-0.1
	Conservative	Nick Webb	13,123	32.5	+0.2
	UKIP	Gordon Norrie	6,134	15.2	+12.3
	Plaid Cymru	Simon Coopey	1,604	4.0	+1.2
	Liberal Democrat	Ed Townsend	1,581	3.9	-12.7
	Green	Pippa Bartolotti	1,272	3.2	+2.1
Majority			3,510	8.7	-0.2
Turnout			40,347	64.9	+0.1
Registered electors			62,137
	Labour hold		Swing	-0.1

However it has always been a Labour-Tory marginal and no third party has ever really made any impact.

Clearly Plaid can't win the seat but a good third place might make all the difference .

The Liberal Democrats can't  litter the constituency with their "Little Bar Graphs" showing themselves  as the main challenger  and  the Independent Group  sem unlikely to be able to organise a candidate.

This leaves Ukip who may benefit from any delay in the UK leaving the EU, but who may have a problem f we crash out on March 29th.

This leaves Plaid as a Left Pro Europe alternative . It does look like a Pipe dream
but remember  in 1968 plaid came from nowhere ib Caerphilly

Result of the previous general election[edit]

General Election 1966: Caerphilly

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Ness Edwards	26,330	74.25	+2.11
	Conservative	Ronald J Maddocks	5,182	14.61	-2.28
	Plaid Cymru	John D A Howell	3,949	11.41	+0.43
Majority			21,148	59.64	+4.39
Turnout			35,461	76.79	+1.62
Registered electors			46,180
	Labour hold		Swing

Result of the by-election[edit]

Caerphilly by-election, 1968^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Alfred Evans	16,148	45.66	-28.59
	Plaid Cymru	Phil Williams	14,274	40.36	+29.22
	Conservative	Robert Williams	3,687	10.43	-4.18
	Liberal	Peter Sadler	1,257	3.55	N/A
Majority			1,874	5.30	-54.35
Turnout			35,366	75.9	-0.89
Registered electors			46,578
	Labour hold		Swing

Of course Plaid start at a much lower base, but nothing  is for certain and if Plaid decide to put proper resources into the by-election rather put up a Paper candidate  a good third is not impossible.

Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Hapus!

I think that I should start with a Hat Tip to Google for their change to their logo to celebrate Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Logo



There may be many log on on to Google throughout the World today who are puzzled with what appears on their screen and in many ways that reflects our challenge as a nation.

I lived in Camden  London for a number of years which had a large number of Irish Diaspora  Indeed St Patrick's Day was probably the biggest event in that part of North London all year.

It wasn't just St Patrick's Day though every weekend my local the much missed  Stags Head  would have a house band playing (Beyond the Pale) and sometimes we would be enjoying "afters" and a knock on the door would not be the police but a n Irish band having finished a gig drooping by and playing a few tunes.

St David's Day was usually a disappointment and would evolve  either going to the Welsh Centre in Grey's End or road or scour Time Out or other paper to find some gig.

Of course the success of St Patrick's Day as an international event is due to the large number of people throughout the Wales who can claim some Irish Ancestry.

However it is also due to the volume and excellence of Irish Folk music some of which has been passed down to second and third generations  in areas like Camden and Kilburn.

For Wales it could be argued that it is the Eisteddfod that is responsible for the large loss of an equivalent  folk tradition.


When it moved in the nineteenth century from the pub to the chapel, i wonder how much original Welsh fiddle music was lost to the tradition of Welsh Male Voiced Choirs.

Many Irish tunes before they were collected were not written down and lasted  because they were passed down from father to son, and I wonder it the same failed to happen in Wales as the Non-Conformist  disproved of such music and its association with Pubs and alcohol.

I am of course not an expert in this but it seems to be ironic that in many ways the chapels helped to preserve the Welsh language, but may have contributed  to the loss of much of our other folk culture.

I am being deliberately provocative here and would welcome comments , that argue from a different  perspective, after all it's only from such debates we can create a  Dydd Gŵyl Dewi which can rival that of our Irish cousins if not in the rest of the world at least in Cymru.